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Old 15th April 2011 | Show parent
Originally Posted by tvsky View Post
you are correct , if we talk about averages for the entire Chinese population , then yes few have the net

I have read a variety of statistics on firewall circumvention in china , it ranges from 5-20% of internet users . Usage by foreigners is considerably higher , sometimes estimated at 90% and is basically required for any sort of foreign business operations in china. Usage among select groups is likely to be considerably higher , students , younger people etc. Official statistics are impossible obviously so this is all a bit vague.

I read also that US piracy is about 9% of users , that could be pro piracy propaganda though , right john! but I think it shows that the percentage of motivated users will educate themselves on new techniques if required , even if the mainstream do not . But it is those motivated educated users than this law is trying to target.

one thing that is interesting to consider . If 9% of people are pirates as reported , and a certain percentage of those are the hardcore that will never be stopped no matter what , what sort of percentage of people are we likely to target and actually stop with legislation and what sort of physical numbers do those people represent? What are the "best case" numbers in terms of actual pirates stopped and actual sales increased?
If piracy was only 9% of users we'd be in a lot better shape.

It could be that 9% of users are HARD CORE pirates, although that figure seems a little high - I'd put it more like 5%, possibly less. However hard core pirates aren't really the problem.

The problem is soft core pirates. People who may not even think of themselves as pirates at all but download all their music and movies just because it's easy and free to do it. These are the people who represent lost sales and they're a LOT more than 9% of the computer using population - I'd set a minimum figure at 50%, possibly more. These are also the people who are most likely to be influenced by more effective enforcement.