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So now that Piracy is unstoppable... Effects Pedals, Units & Accessories
Old 4th January 2011
  #61
Quote:
Originally Posted by dakotajones View Post
just don't spend millions of dollars on fancy stages, lighting, props, visual effects, 1800 roadies...and focus on just the music...and you'll be fine.
Seriously, have you done it?
Looks from your signature like you're in design.
Old 4th January 2011
  #62
Quote:
Originally Posted by dakotajones View Post
just don't spend millions of dollars on fancy stages, lighting, props, visual effects, 1800 roadies...and focus on just the music...and you'll be fine.
prove it.

post your budget spreadsheet for a 4 week north american van tour for a four piece band w/ driver/roadie/soundguy...

let's see it.
Old 4th January 2011
  #63
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
My point though is being honest and objective about the industry problems (as you are above) gives you credibility.
I presume 'Fuzz' is sincere in his posts, as I presume you are.
I don't live in America or have connections with the actual business side of music or the tech companies there, so I have to respect to a certain degree someone who does. In the end, 'Fuzz' agrees with me that by far the biggest crisis music has even known is the illegal internet download. You've been quoted as saying there could be as little as a 10% downturn due to piracy, although you've stuck to 20%. Given the contrast between by far the biggest threat and a 10-20% downturn I judge there to be more realism in the stance that 'Fuzz' holds than your stance (added to your unreal comments on the industry).
Old 4th January 2011
  #64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post

post your budget spreadsheet for a 4 week north american van tour for a four piece band w/ driver/roadie/soundguy...
Don't forget the rehearsals..... and while you're at it, you have to factor in the recording budget for the album you just released and gave away.
So for musicians to be just fine, a tour needs to pay for itself (at least), plus rehearsals, plus the album recordings, plus the weeks of the year you aren't touring (food, rent, family expenses).
Old 4th January 2011
  #65
Quote:
Originally Posted by booob View Post
What do you think matters more?
Some piray in the music industry.

or

The polar ice caps melting.
Politicians have 9999999 more issues to deal with, and that's just the personal ones these days it seems!
why create false dilemma?
Old 4th January 2011
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
Think about how many individual listener/plays on radio you need to make minimum wage.

16 million streams/month sounds like a lot but it really isn't, in context. A radio station in a market like NYC, LA, Dallas, etc might reach a quarter to a half million listeners at peak hours, per play. So sixteen million streams would be equivalent to getting 32 to 64 individual radio plays in a major market.
is what you are saying that - on the web one stream = one listen...and on the radio one play may = a million listens
Old 4th January 2011
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Given the contrast between by far the biggest threat and a 10-20% downturn I judge there to be more realism in the stance that 'Fuzz' holds than your stance (added to your unreal comments on the industry).
Well, I said I wouldn't be surprised if it were as low as 10% or as high as 50%... beyond that I would be surprised... but what do I know? Nothing. What does anyone KNOW? That's the whole point, we're guessing, and this is not about me. It doesn't matter if your guesses are better than mine, or if his are better than mine.

I think people are in denial to just blame the entire thing on piracy.. and more importantly to this conversation, it gives people a reason to dismiss the opinion outright, since it appears pretty crazy to think there are no other significant factors in the industry downturn. The reality, people have put a lot of thought and study into how to change minds. I'm not sure overstating the problem is the most effective way.
Old 4th January 2011
  #68
Exactly - you and I don't know, so how then do you go on to claim someone is 'overstating the problem'?
People on the web, who in large part are excited about 'free information' and the fact they can build a kick ass music library for free, are looking for reasons to dismiss the 'opinion', let's be real about this.
I don't know exactly how bad for music the current piracy level is, neither do you. People who are closer to that on the ground, the Fuzz's, the Ari Emanuel's, the Bob Ohlsonn's say it's really bad, devastatingly bad. So as usual I wonder how you can claim they're overstating anything when you have no better insight (same as me).
Old 5th January 2011
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
So as usual I wonder how you can claim they're overstating anything when you have no better insight (same as me).
By ignoring other factors, I think he's overstating the impact of piracy.
Old 5th January 2011
  #70
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
By ignoring other factors, I think he's overstating the impact of piracy.
how would you know?

all I've said is that is it by far and away the #1 problem
Old 5th January 2011
  #71
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogerbrain View Post
is what you are saying that - on the web one stream = one listen...and on the radio one play may = a million listens
that would be correct but it's not the heart of the issue - the heart of the issue (for me at least) is that it's NOT radio in any form if it's "on demand".
Old 5th January 2011
  #72
TLR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spice house View Post
Piracy is here to stay, we all know that! But it is no threat...

Has movie pirating killed the movie industry? no they're making more every year

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2010

Then why have CD sales declined? because no one wants a damn CD, thats why we have itunes. People don't spend less on music now, they have more of it thanks to piracy.

washingtonpost.com: Study: File-Sharing No Threat to Music Sales

The fashion industry does not care about fakes at all, since they (smartly) have concluded that people who buy fake bags are not their target market (they wouldn't buy the expensive bags anyway).

Johanna Blakley: Lessons from fashion's free culture | Video on TED.com

People get all excited about it but really its a just a way for people to share music they like. Its not stealing, it's not 'piracy', it's copyright infringement - there is a big difference, we all know what it is.

Remember, in the end, obscurity is a greater threat to artists than piracy.
Well said! I also believe there is scope in our industry, but the game has changed forever, and the market it over saturated. Basic economics then determines there will be a marginal decline in sales for everybody involved, even though the industry as a whole might be growing.
Old 5th January 2011
  #73
Quote:
Originally Posted by TLR View Post
Well said! I also believe there is scope in our industry, but the game has changed forever, and the market it over saturated. Basic economics then determines there will be a marginal decline in sales for everybody involved, even though the industry as a whole might be growing.
or, you could look at reality... the industry as a whole isn't growing, it's down by almost 60% in a decade and another 13% this year in the USA alone!

1973 is plot point "1"
1979 is plot point "7"
2008 is plot point "36"

note the steady build of music sales through the 70s, 80s, 90s, until the turn of the century with the introduction of rampant piracy and then the numbers plummet...



Quote:
Originally Posted by spice house View Post
Piracy is here to stay, we all know that! But it is no threat...
your opinion perhaps, but wrong on both counts, and piracy is costing the content industry BILLIONS of dollars per year - I wouldn't call that "no threat".

Quote:
Originally Posted by spice house View Post
Has movie pirating killed the movie industry? no they're making more every year

The Numbers - Movie Market Summary 1995 to 2010
box office is up due to inflation in ticket prices and also increased ticket prices due to 3D as a novelty. Avatar has also skewed recent #'s as the top grossing film of all time.

if we look at home video DVD sales however, which is subject to rampant piracy the numbers are very different, and dropping both fast and steadily.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spice house View Post
Then why have CD sales declined? because no one wants a damn CD, thats why we have itunes. People don't spend less on music now, they have more of it thanks to piracy.

washingtonpost.com: Study: File-Sharing No Threat to Music Sales
actually they spend less because they get more illegally free from piracy.

you're quoting the Washington Post from 2004 which is quoting a widely debonked study (ie survey) that even the authors of which have revised...

Quote:
Originally Posted by spice house View Post
The fashion industry does not care about fakes at all, since they (smartly) have concluded that people who buy fake bags are not their target market (they wouldn't buy the expensive bags anyway).

Johanna Blakley: Lessons from fashion's free culture | Video on TED.com

People get all excited about it but really its a just a way for people to share music they like. Its not stealing, it's not 'piracy', it's copyright infringement - there is a big difference, we all know what it is.
infringement is much worse than stealing as the damages are much more far reaching ask Thomas and Tenenbaum...

As for the TED Talk if fashion industry policies/economics had any relationship to the music business a Beatles song would cost $1,200 and and unknown developing artist song would cost a nickle. Prada and JC Penny have different pricing...

In other words, the music industry does not benefit from Variable Pricing platforms the way that fashion does - as fun as it is to play the "what if" game - if you are going to take part of the model, better take it all to see that it actually applies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by spice house View Post
Remember, in the end, obscurity is a greater threat to artists than piracy.
actually that's only a threat to the artists who can't get beyond obscurity to piracy... piracy is not promotion, if it was, labels would be throwing money at the pirate bay for their service... lol.

back under the bridge for you troll...
Old 5th January 2011
  #74
Quote:
Originally Posted by TLR View Post
Basic economics then determines there will be a marginal decline in sales for everybody involved,
Please educate me where basic economics allows for huge amounts of sale-able product to flood out freely and then does not effect a decline for everybody (creative) involved.
I want to learn.
Old 5th January 2011
  #75
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
how would you know?

all I've said is that is it by far and away the #1 problem
..but let's be honest, you don't KNOW, you're framing the problem as if you do KNOW.

I know it's pointless to keep on this, so have the last word, but please understand I will challenge you when you post like this. I think you undermine a good argument against piracy by framing your beliefs as fact... thus giving the green light for the pirates to do the same, and ensuring a stalemate.
Old 5th January 2011
  #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonT View Post
...
Seems like we are forced to bring the live experience back and work our asses off to make a dollar. We have to market, market, market. Should it be this hard? Hell no! ...
Welcome to the reality of "small business".
Old 5th January 2011
  #77
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
..but let's be honest, you don't KNOW, you're framing the problem as if you do KNOW.

I know it's pointless to keep on this, so have the last word, but please understand I will challenge you when you post like this. I think you undermine a good argument against piracy by framing your beliefs as fact... thus giving the green light for the pirates to do the same, and ensuring a stalemate.
but that's just not true

1) sales rose steadily prior to the onset of piracy even accounting for economics such as recessions, competing consumer products, etc.

2) sales dropped rapidly and steadily since the onset of massive scale online p2p file sharing and illegal piracy to the tune of an unprecedented losses totaling over $8 billion dollars alone in the USA or an almost 60% decline

those two sentences above are absolutely factual and true.

as illustrated again, here:



even when you tried to frame the conversation as the economy as a contributing factor - it turns out factually to be of very small significance, if any when looking at the larger issue.

fact is, this is an unprecedented moment for content distribution in the history of content distribution.

to say that having the exact same product available illegally free and consequence free, instantly - is not the major challenge to the paid business is both intellectually dishonest, intentionally obtuse or both.

put two booths side by side with the same product - one selling the product for $10ea, the other giving it away for free - what to you believe would be the reasonable outcome of such an experiment? Honestly and sincerely?
Old 5th January 2011
  #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dakotajones View Post
just don't spend millions of dollars on fancy stages, lighting, props, visual effects, 1800 roadies...and focus on just the music...and you'll be fine.

I take it you're not a SongWriter?
Old 5th January 2011
  #79
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
1) sales rose steadily prior to the onset of piracy even accounting for economics such as recessions, competing consumer products, etc.

2) sales dropped rapidly and steadily since the onset of massive scale online p2p file sharing and illegal piracy to the tune of an unprecedented losses totaling over $8 billion dollars alone in the USA or an almost 60% decline

those two sentences above are absolutely factual and true.
I'm sorry, I promised you the last word, but I just need to respond, then you can once again have it... again, sorry.

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

to wit, from the link:
Quote:
correlation proves causation, is a logical fallacy by which two events that occur together are claimed to have a cause-and-effect relationship. The fallacy is also known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this") and false cause.
It seems emotionally that there is a direct causation in the numbers above, but there is no proof yet. There is no question there IS correlation to the two sentences (though it's pretty clear to me, looking at GNP stats of the US, there certainly is an historic economic component, but I'll digress). But saying there is causation is an emotional argument but a logical fallacy.
Old 5th January 2011
  #80
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
I'm sorry, I promised you the last word, but I just need to respond, then you can once again have it... again, sorry.

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

to wit, from the link:
It seems emotionally that there is a direct causation in the numbers above, but there is no proof yet. There is no question there IS correlation to the two sentences (though it's pretty clear to me, looking at GNP stats of the US, there certainly is an historic economic component, but I'll digress). But saying there is causation is an emotional argument but a logical fallacy.
it's also a cop out to common sense. this is the kind of debate tactic that allowed tobacco companies to dodge & weave for years. what good came of that?

ISP's (tobacco) clearly have this data - it's in their pipes (no pun intended). but to make this info public from the source would not help their cause with lawmakers, policy makers, or THEIR consumers.

think about it.
Old 5th January 2011
  #81
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
it's not that they pay "bad"... "bad" would be paying HALF of what itunes pays... but Spotify isn't really paying anything...

the bottom line is the bottom line. people need to be paid. maybe you don't need to be paid?

I don't know how much you get paid to do what you do, but could you still do it if you were paid 1 penny for every dollar you now make? Well, Spotify pays less than that... it doesn't work.
Radio stations "don't pay anything" compared to record sales.

You're comparing gumballs to bagels.

We need both radio/streams (p[rimarily for publicity and introducing people to new music) and record sales. The two complement each other.
Old 5th January 2011
  #82
john - I love you man...

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
Radio stations "don't pay anything" compared to record sales.
and that's exactly my point about Spotify, it should not be compared to record sales as a revenue stream as many are doing in these discussions - its not even close.

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
You're comparing gumballs to bagels.
and, I agree again, Spotify isn't much like radio either given the "on demand" aspect - so Spotify does not provide a benefit to artists as either a) record sales, or b) radio... radio implied a built in audience that coule be "turned onto" new music - "on demand" services like Spotify fail to have that mechanism to benefit artists so it's not like radio, or record sales.

my only point is to clarify comparing Spotify to either is comparing apples to grenades...
Old 5th January 2011
  #83
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonT View Post
It's horrible! Even for studio owners like myself. I get sessions from people that havn't got a clue as to how to mix and they have Expensive plugs strapped all over the inserts. Dude, you got a lexicon on the click?

Using DAWs like Nuendo and Radio Shack mics into a built-in sound card! WTF is wrong with that picture?

I get guys asking to pay for sessions by offering the lastest cracked software.

Salespeople at GC offering a package deal of plug-ins downloaded to DVD!?!?!?

People less and less invovled in music creation for a living becuase they know that people are just going to steel the music.

Hardly any work from labels and artist on a budget.

WTF?????? WTF?????? How do we make it?????

Seems like we are forced to bring the live experience back and work our asses off to make a dollar. We have to market, market, market. Should it be this hard? Hell no! Do we love music? Hell Yeah! What do we do? We keep making music! We just have to find other ways of making money doing it. Piracy is Piracy and it is not going anywhere anytime soon.

People do it becuase they can and are demoralized to their evil doings. Slavery was execpted by many........didn't make it right......
Are you saying that somebody at GC is offering cracked/pirated software IN THE STORE?

If this is the case I'm certain that GC management would be VERY interested. Not only is that illegal, it's also competing with GC's own sales.
Old 5th January 2011
  #84
Quote:
Originally Posted by booob View Post
What do you think matters more?

Some piray in the music industry.

or

The polar ice caps melting.


Politicians have 9999999 more issues to deal with, and that's just the personal ones these days it seems!
Non sequitur.

However, since you ask, piracy, of course. Politicians MIGHT have a chance to help with that. The odds of them ever getting a handle on the icecaps melting are virtually nonexistent, especially since the major problems are in other countries - China, Brazil, and Africa.
Old 5th January 2011
  #85
Quote:
Originally Posted by dakotajones View Post
wow...you guys are WAY too uptight. One of my good friends was able to do it...i've seen it. I'm not gonna prove anything to the non-believers. I'm done.
not uptight - honest

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I'd like to see proof. I've budgeted far to many tours to have someone talk about how tours make money without having to back it up.

So I'd like to see his balance sheet at the end of the tour, and know who he was...

the irony of your post however is, that the current data shows that it's MOSTLY those legacy artists, developed prior to piracy, and a couple current mega stars are actually the only ones who are making money... you know the ones with the big expensive production budgets...
Old 5th January 2011
  #86
Quote:
Originally Posted by dakotajones View Post
Boo to piracy...and i would imagine bands that give their albums away are doing it, because a) there's no real money in cd's and music downloads for the artist anymore - they get a small percentage compared to the record companies...
Bands give their music away because they lack confidence in their own art. (not counting bands that give away one track as a loss leader for their album, of course.)

Quote:
and b) it's so they can get their name and music out there to more people, because the real money comes from concert sales.
This whole idea is a load of crap spread by people who have never played out extensively and the freetard community. Here's what one guy has to say about it:



The fact is that there is virtually no money in live performance for the vast majority of acts - entry level acts actually have to pay to get opening slots on tours. Midlevel and larger headline acts have expenses that are literally inconceivable to the average music fan. A large tour is essentially a small traveling army - a large tour with 3 bands often has over a hundred people and the number of people traveling with festival tours is ridiculous.
Old 5th January 2011
  #87
Quote:
Originally Posted by dakotajones View Post
just don't spend millions of dollars on fancy stages, lighting, props, visual effects, 1800 roadies...and focus on just the music...and you'll be fine.
You ARE delusional, aren't you?

The fans expect a show of a certain quality for their money. It may be fine to put on an amateur quality show for a local bar band, but a touring act has to do better - or nobody's going to pay for the tickets. Why should they, when they can see just as good a show at their local bar?

Even a show with minimal glitz, no stage props, minimum crew, carrying no lighting or sound - a good example would be the current Cyndi Lauper blues tour which is about as minimal as you can get for a professional quality act playing midsized venues - still has expenses of thousands of dollars per week.

Might I ask what you do for a living?

Do you work in the music industry

.If so, in what capacity?

Do you play in a band?

.If so:
Does that band tour?

Does that band play anywhere besides small bars in your town and occasional gigs in towns nearby (say, within a 2-3 hour drive)?

Does that band make enough money to cover operating expenses?

Does that band make enough money to cover living expenses for any or all its members?

How many of the members have outside employment?
Old 5th January 2011
  #88
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
It seems emotionally that there is a direct causation in the numbers above, but there is no proof yet. There is no question there IS correlation to the two sentences (though it's pretty clear to me, looking at GNP stats of the US, there certainly is an historic economic component, but I'll digress). But saying there is causation is an emotional argument but a logical fallacy.
And I agree with Fuzz, it just flies in the face of common sense.
If your product is selling reasonably well, then experiences a sudden dip in sales at the same time the same product appears quite openly on the free to own market (illegally), you'd have to be a real business fool to not link the two, and move to close the illegally free option.
Old 5th January 2011
  #89
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
Bands give their music away because they lack confidence in their own art.
+1 thumbsup
Old 5th January 2011
  #90
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogerbrain View Post
is what you are saying that - on the web one stream = one listen...and on the radio one play may = a million listens
That's the gist of it, depending on market and assuming streaming on demand.

If the streaming is NOT on demand (internet radio), one play = many listens, so it depends on how you're counting it. I'm assuming that the chart is counting individual listens.
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