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What is the REAL cause of the music industry downturn?? Channel Strip Plugins
Old 31st December 2010
  #91
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
Sure it is. Why would somebody pay a premium for a 10Mbps pipe if they're not moving lots of data? a 5Mbps pipe is cheaper and perfectly adequate for normal use, including streaming video.
Yes, the pricing is absolutely based on data in Australia.
That's the way internet contracts are structured.
Five years ago a 1gig contract (allowing you to download up to 1 gig per month) was at the high end, a very expensive contract most usually bought by business. When I signed my ISP contract three years ago I went with 4gig as I'm running an international music business. This was at the upper end of the scale for domestic users.
My inlaws (with three teenage sons) have just bought a 120gig contract (120 gigs per month).
No one in the family is creative, no one makes their own videos, no one is a keen photographer. They already have blu-ray and cable television.
So what does an ordinary suburban family need 120 gigs of download per month for?
For the record, 120gigs is now the standard domestic contract, although you could pay a lot less and have 4gig like me.
Old 31st December 2010
  #92
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
USAGE, not speed. I'm not aware of any non cell based provider who charges based on usage. Are you?
It's common in Australia and many other places. Not in the USA, although ISPs are looking at trying it.
Old 31st December 2010
  #93
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The only data that talks about cause of the industry downturn... take your pick, take ANY scholarly survey not coming from the industry.
There is none. Your "scholarly surveys" are not. Please stop repeating the same tired blather. If you can't come up with anything valid, give it up.

Quote:
There is data, you just don't like it.
Gee, are you talking to yourself? Because that describes your situation and position perfectly.
Old 1st January 2011
  #94
Yes, Americans don't know how lucky they (currently) are.
What I'm saying is that usage is absolutely quantifiable in places such as Australia.
Again, going on my attitude of assessing real world evidence and not so much data, I wonder why 4 gig was on the upper end of domestic contracts three years ago, and now most ordinary suburban families are opting for 120 gigs per month? This in a country where internet speeds are too slow to watch movies and television in real time.
Old 1st January 2011
  #95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurend View Post
Here's a little hope in this desperate landscape:
French Biz Continues To Grow In 2010 | Billboard.biz
Happy New Year
Don't the French have something called HADOPI?
Old 1st January 2011
  #96
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Yes, the pricing is absolutely based on data in Australia.
That's the way internet contracts are structured.
in the USA as well...

Verizon
Verizon | High Speed Internet: Plans

AT&T
AT&T U-verse High Speed Internet - AT&T Broadband Internet Service - Uverse

Comcast
Comcast High-Speed Internet | Plans And Prices

not to mention of course, mobile/wireless data plans:
Data Plans with Wi-Fi - DataPlus & DataPro Plan - Wireless from AT&T
Old 1st January 2011
  #97
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Yes, you are exactly right... we're not seeing a dip. Yet the numbers show a dip:

1977 - 898 million
1978 - 942 million
1979 - 896 million
1980 - 878 million
1981 - 1140 million

What is wrong with this picture??

What exactly is your "DLP album units column?"

It should be 1650 in 1981 if you are adding in cassettes. It is a simple formula that somehow you have screwed up.

Oh and can you make it a bit bigger? It hasn't screwed up the legibility of this thread completely, you could actually make it less legible.
No, the figures don't show a dip at all. The figures show sales being essentially flat from 1977 to 1980 with an anomalous spike in 1978. of about 50 million sales - that size spike could have been caused by something as simple as the release a handful of blockbuster albums. What happened in 1978?

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Singles are more attractive when people have less money to spend. For accuracy, remove singles from your equation, as they are essentially a different product at a different price point. A separate graph of singles is fine.
No, singles are more attractive when the quality of albums drops due to lack of production budget and money available to support good songwriting.
Old 1st January 2011
  #98
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
No, the figures don't show a dip at all. The figures show sales being essentially flat from 1977 to 1980 with an anomalous spike in 1978. of about 50 million sales - that size spike could have been caused by something as simple as the release a handful of blockbuster albums. What happened in 1978?
Saturday Nigh Fever and Disco! Lol!
Old 1st January 2011
  #99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
in the USA as well...
ALL of those are based on speed, not data. AGAIN, whether you download one mp3 or a thousand mp3s, the price is the same. The only difference is how fast that pipe is.

The exception is cell data, where there are specific tiers, download ceilings, for different costs.

This is pretty basic.

Chris, can you provide a link to how the pricing works in Australia? What are the tiers like?

To make it clear for you... here's an example of ATT cell phone costs..

http://www.att.com/shop/wireless/plans/data-plans.jsp

200 megs one price. 2gb, a different price. DIFFERENT then speed.


EDIT Nevermind Chris, here's an example:

http://broadbandguide.com.au/most-popular/plans

Note for "fuzz"... tiers. Not speed.
Old 1st January 2011
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
It's common in Australia and many other places. Not in the USA, although ISPs are looking at trying it.
OK, thanks... at least you understand the difference. heh
Old 1st January 2011
  #101
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
ALL of those are based on speed, not data. AGAIN, whether you download one mp3 or a thousand mp3s, the price is the same. The only difference is how fast that pipe is.

The exception is cell data, where there are specific tiers, download ceilings, for different costs.

This is pretty basic.

Chris, can you provide a link to how the pricing works in Australia? What are the tiers like?
speed is data... good lord... time is finite, the amount of time it takes to fill bucket is about volume. the faster the speed, the higher the volume... are you really arguing this?

more speed is more data.

speed determines the amount of data you can consume over any period of time.
Old 1st January 2011
  #102
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Exactly. You can't simply agree to disagree.
No.

Because you are wrong.

This isn't a matter of opinion or taste.

This is a matter of FACT, and people's livelihoods depend on it.

You're debating a position that you hold intellectually concerning something that doesn't really affect you. You opted out of the industry (or so you claim) before the problems even started - if you can really count radio as being part of the music industry proper at all, which is somewhat debatable.

We are stating a position that has a direct effect on our incomes.

You're arguing opinion. We're arguing facts and the reality of life.

The is no way in hell we are going to agree to disagree on this.
Old 1st January 2011
  #103
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
EDIT Nevermind Chris, here's an example:

Most Popular Broadband Plans on Broadband Guide
Yes. thumbsup

Actually I underquoted my relatives (from memory).
They're actually on the 200gig plan, as are many other suburban families.
BigPond Broadband internet - Compare broadband plans and broadband speed

On a side note, data pricing is a real nightmare.
I'm using music software - Spectrasonics, Native Instruments etc....
They keep offering free upgrades, bug fixes etc, but they are always download only.
A couple I downloaded recently were 1 gig each, which really hammers my finances. When i was in the UK and USA recently I tried to download as many software upgrades as I could.
Old 1st January 2011
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
speed is data... good lord... time is finite, the amount of time it takes to fill bucket is about volume. the faster the speed, the higher the volume... are you really arguing this?

more speed is more data.

speed determines the amount of data you can consume over any period of time.
Old 1st January 2011
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
On a side note, data pricing is a real nightmare.
Holy crap, yes. That IS a total nightmare. I prefer the US way.
Old 1st January 2011
  #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
No.

Because you are wrong.

This isn't a matter of opinion or taste.

This is a matter of FACT, and people's livelihoods depend on it.
Nobody's livelihood depends on my perspective, John.

The fact is, you don't know, I don't know, we are all guessing. We know that piracy has an impact, we don't know how much. All the rest of it is just talk. All of your BS "piracy apologist" and all the other crap about your friends in the industry is interesting. It's not proof, of course, but... your mind doesn't work that way, so, we agree to disagree. Or at least, I do.

You only know what you know... and you don't know.

Quote:
We are stating a position that has a direct effect on our incomes.
Ahh, so THAT is what makes you correct?

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You're arguing opinion. We're arguing facts and the reality of life.
How many times have your "facts" been proven wrong?

Quote:
The is no way in hell we are going to agree to disagree on this.
Oh, I know. You're not capable, and... well, it is what it is.
Old 1st January 2011
  #107
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Yes. thumbsup

Actually I underquoted my relatives (from memory).
They're actually on the 200gig plan, as are many other suburban families.
BigPond Broadband internet - Compare broadband plans and broadband speed

On a side note, data pricing is a real nightmare.
I'm using music software - Spectrasonics, Native Instruments etc....
They keep offering free upgrades, bug fixes etc, but they are always download only.
A couple I downloaded recently were 1 gig each, which really hammers my finances. When i was in the UK and USA recently I tried to download as many software upgrades as I could.
chris - do you actually know what your monthly usage is? does it exceed 50GB?
Old 1st January 2011
  #108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
chris - do you actually know what your monthly usage is? does it exceed 50GB?
My monthly usage is tailored according to 4gig plan I have.
Once I step over that limit my already paltry broadband speed is throttled back to dial up for the remaining portion of the contract month (however many days that is) by the ISP. This has happened to me once, luckily less than a week before the end of my month, but it made doing anything on the net bar the most simple emails impossible.
In effect, I rarely download music, I never download movies or tv shows and I have to ration mt software upgrades and music software demos across several months.
I really should switch to the 220gig plan myself, but I find the isp's here so annoying I regret handing over any more money to them.
Old 1st January 2011
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
No, the figures don't show a dip at all. The figures show sales being essentially flat from 1977 to 1980 with an anomalous spike in 1978. of about 50 million sales - that size spike could have been caused by something as simple as the release a handful of blockbuster albums. What happened in 1978?
Of course, we all see what we want to see. One of us realizes it.

Quote:
No, singles are more attractive when the quality of albums drops due to lack of production budget and money available to support good songwriting.
So, that is what happened in the late 70's? Interesting. That must also explain how the singles market was already dipping around 1983... er... wait. heh

This is FUN John. You think it's real, but it's not. Nobody's minds are being changed here, you're not "fighting the good fight" by arguing on a message board. If you REALLY cared to make a difference you would do something about the problem rather then spending time here yapping about it. I've offered... but people would rather just argue I guess...

Again, the bottom line is you have your perspective which comes from your experience, which you claim as "TRUTH." I have mine, which I make no bones about being based on the information I have available to me, and being fallible. The truth is one of us is right. The truth is, we don't KNOW any of the things you THINK you know. The fact that you can't imagine any impact on the music industry as a result of the worst recession in decades really says something...

So, really, that's it John.
Old 1st January 2011
  #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
My monthly usage is tailored according to 4gig plan I have.
Once I step over that limit my already paltry broadband speed is throttled back to dial up for the remaining portion of the contract month (however many days that is) by the ISP.
That sounds exactly like satellite internet here... had that happen to a friend. Once over the cap, you're in modem speed hell!
Old 1st January 2011
  #111
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post

The fact is, you don't know, I don't know, we are all guessing. We know that piracy has an impact, we don't know how much. All the rest of it is just talk.
This I totally agree with.
We in the industry can't put a percentage on it. I think we could but the research would have to be transparent and the methods wide-ranging and patently unbiased. I actually think the results would be so shocking there is no need for the industry to twist any data.

The independent data lacks a lot in terms of method and wide ranging research.
So I don't buy their take on it.

I do think the anecdotal evidence is worthy, at least in the absence of hard data that's believable.
If a friend releases a limited edition EP which sells quite well for a few days, then stops selling on the same day the EP appears on a filesharing site, should we blame the devaluation of music, the public's anger at major label corruption, the global recession, or the fact the EP is now available for anyone to download free of charge?
If my music software is selling at a certain rate, then that rate slows in the same period the software appears on google searches as a free download from illegal sites. Should I blame the global recession, the fact the music industry will never go back to the heady days of the 70's and 80's, or should I link the drop in sales to the product's first appearance on illegal filesharing sites?
Old 1st January 2011
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
I actually think the results would be so shocking there is no need for the industry to twist any data.
It wouldn't surprise me much. I wouldn't be surprised if the downturn was 10% caused by piracy (well, maybe a little), and I wouldn't be surprised if it were 50%. I'd be surprised if it were more though.

Quote:
The independent data lacks a lot in terms of method and wide ranging research.
So I don't buy their take on it.
Sure, that's your choice, and that's fine. I think it's better than nothing, and I take it for what it is. That's my choice.

Quote:
I do think the anecdotal evidence is worthy, at least in the absence of hard data that's believable.
All evidence is good. Anecdotal evidence is not measurable and is open to much interpretation. Yes, so is all data.

Quote:
If a friend releases a limited edition EP which sells quite well for a few days, then stops selling on the same day the EP appears on a filesharing site, should we blame the devaluation of music, the public's anger at major label corruption, the global recession, or the fact the EP is now available for anyone to download free of charge?
Exactly. You could make a very strong argument in that case without a doubt. Most of the time it's not that clear, which is where the problems come in.

The only problem WE have is you can't accept that two people can look at the same data and come up with different conclusions. It happens all the time, and not just by yahoos on the internets. I think you are overselling the problem, you think I am underselling the problem. Maybe we're both wrong. Fine. We'll see as the data keeps coming in. But I'm not going to simply trust you and agree with for the reasons I've already outlined, when my own reading of the same data leads me to a different conclusion.
Old 1st January 2011
  #113
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
It wouldn't surprise me much. I wouldn't be surprised if the downturn was 10% caused by piracy (well, maybe a little), and I wouldn't be surprised if it were 50%. I'd be surprised if it were more though.
10% no, not from what I'm seeing being widely traveled and talking to a lot of diverse people.


Quote:
Sure, that's your choice, and that's fine. I think it's better than nothing, and I take it for what it is. That's my choice.
Of course, I only argue against it when you put it forward as fairly conclusive, especially when debating with people who are seeing the effects of piracy on the ground.


Quote:
All evidence is good. Anecdotal evidence is not measurable and is open to much interpretation. Yes, so is all data.
Yes, unfortunately the current data as put forward by you is not researching piracy in 2009, 2010, or 2011. It largely looks at Napster and CD sales going back as far as 2000-2004.
There is not much research or data out there actually. Against that, there is a huge amount of anecdotal evidence available. The anecdotal evidence often dates from 2010.
So I agree, neither evidence stream is ideal, but I'll take personal eyewitness accounts from the last 12 months over data that doesn't even look at the specifics of what we are dealing with - piracy in the era of superfast broadband, and mobile downloading as seen with the iPhone (introduced 2007).



Quote:
The only problem WE have is you can't accept that two people can look at the same data and come up with different conclusions.
Really the only problem I have is that your data isn't looking at the contemporary way piracy is occurring, rather it's looking at outmoded organs such as Napster and the CD. On the other hand, anecdotal evidence is available from all spheres of music (the studio scene, the touring scene, Africa, Classical, self releasers, major label 'rock stars') and does cover recent innovations in the pirates arsenal.
Old 1st January 2011
  #114
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
That sounds exactly like satellite internet here... had that happen to a friend. Once over the cap, you're in modem speed hell!
why would that be? because speed equals consumption perhaps?
Old 1st January 2011
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
why would that be? because speed equals consumption perhaps?


Yes, that is satellite... where speed is monitored, like cell service. Exactly the opposite of Cable/DSL which constitutes the great majority of broadband here in the US. My god, you're wrong, move on.
Old 1st January 2011
  #116
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Nobody's livelihood depends on my perspective, John.
And a jolly good thing, that.

BTW, I never said they depend on your perspective/point of view/opinion. I said they depend on the issue. Typical of you to misinterpret/twist what I said.
Old 1st January 2011
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
10% no, not from what I'm seeing being widely traveled and talking to a lot of diverse people.
I respect your opinion, but I disagree.

Quote:
Of course, I only argue against it when you put it forward as fairly conclusive, especially when debating with people who are seeing the effects of piracy on the ground.
I specifically said it was NOT conclusive. I specifically said multiple times it was a data point.

Quote:
Yes, unfortunately the current data as put forward by you is not researching piracy in 2009, 2010, or 2011. It largely looks at Napster and CD sales going back as far as 2000-2004.
That might matter if you actually would accept the data. The point is, the date is not relevant because you can't even accept it at ALL, even for what it is.

Quote:
There is not much research or data out there actually. Against that, there is a huge amount of anecdotal evidence available. The anecdotal evidence often dates from 2010.
Yes, and AGAIN, it's not quantifiable.

Quote:
So I agree, neither evidence stream is ideal, but I'll take personal eyewitness accounts from the last 12 months over data that doesn't even look at the specifics of what we are dealing with - piracy in the era of superfast broadband, and mobile downloading as seen with the iPhone (introduced 2007).
That's great!! Do what you want. I think you're wrong, but time will tell.

Quote:
Really the only problem I have is that your data isn't looking at the contemporary way piracy is occurring, rather it's looking at outmoded organs such as Napster and the CD. On the other hand, anecdotal evidence is available from all spheres of music (the studio scene, the touring scene, Africa, Classical, self releasers, major label 'rock stars') and does cover recent innovations in the pirates arsenal.
No, the ONLY problem you have with the data is... when it took place, how it was gathered, and what the resulting opinion was. Other than that, it's great, right?

Can you JUST MOVE ON? You can bring better data and you will convince me and others like me. You're not doing any good by repeating yourself over and over. I get your point, I just disagree. Why is that SO HARD?
Old 1st January 2011
  #118
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Can you JUST MOVE ON? You can bring better data and you will convince me and others like me. You're not doing any good by repeating yourself over and over. I get your point, I just disagree. Why is that SO HARD?
after you.
Old 1st January 2011
  #119
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
That might matter if you actually would accept the data. The point is, the date is not relevant because you can't even accept it at ALL, even for what it is.
Oh I've accepted it. Why do you think i spent precious time reading through it and typing up posts dissecting it for you?
The problem is it researches factors that are no longer relevant - like Napster and the habits of CD buyers from the years 2000 to 2004.



Quote:
No, the ONLY problem you have with the data is... when it took place, how it was gathered, and what the resulting opinion was. Other than that, it's great, right?
Sorry, it's irrelevant, and even after I've asked you dozens of times over the last few days, you've still failed to answer the simply put question how it is relevant?
All you can say is, it's all we have, it's better than nothing, which isn't an answer to the question I put. This research simply is NOT studying piracy as it occurs in 2010/11. Please tell me how it is and I'll then accept it as relevant after all.

Quote:
Can you JUST MOVE ON? You're not doing any good by repeating yourself over and over.
Well I could say the same thing.
Yes, I probably already have moved on. Except I keep following these threads and when anyone makes a point that is probably relevant to 2010/11, you contradict them and mention your research from 2000 - 2007 again.
You are the one posting about this old research on multiple threads.
I promise you, if you don't cite it as valuable evidence again, I wont say it isn't again.
Old 1st January 2011
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
Well then you believe wrong. I never claimed 1:1 - as usual you a misreading what's said to suit your own purposes.
Ahh so of course I'm evil rather than making a mistake. Thanks John, classy.

I apologize for the misinterpretation.
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