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What is the REAL cause of the music industry downturn?? Channel Strip Plugins
Old 31st December 2010
  #31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
That's because the videos / sports are cheaper and less trouble for the owners.
Of course.
Reality tv is cheaper and less trouble for tv production companies.
The question is..... is society at large better for much less live music (replaced by sports on tv) and much less local production of drama (replaced by international blockbuster reality tv featuring cheap production values, no actors, no script,and often the public humiliation of participants)?
Old 31st December 2010
  #32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Point accepted.
thumbsup Thanks.
Old 31st December 2010
  #33
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelpatterson View Post
I
And I think this is a useful metaphor for the plague of piracy-- the systems of old have been subverted by this technological revolution we've been witnesses to-- and trying to re-establish the controls of old, that everyone took for granted and accepted as part of life on Earth... that's the challenge right there.
well, that's right - it's a challenge, but it's not impossible. this is a legislative issue and will have a legislative solution. just as the wild west wasn't wild forever (although some might have thought otherwise) neither will the internet be, either by commerce or legislation, or both...
Old 31st December 2010
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
...
The question is..... is society at large better for much less live music (replaced by sports on tv) and much less local production of drama (replaced by international blockbuster reality tv featuring cheap production values, no actors, no script,and often the public humiliation of participants)?
Not in my opinion. Personally, I'm not interested in reality shows, but they've been an entertainment staple since Roman times so there is valid psychology behind them. I wonder if there is any way to leverage this to the advantage of musicians? :-)
Old 31st December 2010
  #35
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
So many words but so little to say. OK.

You: DUH! Napster and the industry downturn happened at the SAME TIME so of course they are related!!

Nothing you have posted explains why this is incorrect.

You: The music industry is largely unaffected by economic downturn.

No 60% of course... maybe because the economic recession wasn't as bad as today?

You: Piracy is the biggest factor in the downturn

I would love it if you would look at the above and debunk the logic.
just for starters those are describing selective data sampling that is conveniently out of context from the whole of the data, just look at the chart created from his/your own data set!

the economy has had little effect on sales of the 36 years tracked, and the decline of sales drops off rapidly with the onset of wide spread piracy (around 1999/2000).

I really can't help you insisting the sky is green and the grass is blue.
Old 31st December 2010
  #36
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmycrack View Post
Perhaps. like myself, there's others who look forward to seeing the music business crash and burn just so we can experience whatever rises up from the ashes......
Wow, spoken like a true non-musician.
What about the millions of innocent musicians trying to earn a crust?

In any case, we've been here before, people said the same as you in the mid-70's.
What did they do? They got off their asses, wrote their own music, made their own records and promoted their own shows. An entirely and utterly positive way forward (Punk and New Wave).

It says something about the times that people will sit around cheering on illegal downloaders because they are bored with the music on offer.
You think there's a lot of crap music around? Do something about it or you are part of the problem.
If you're looking forward to seeing what 'rises from the ashes' you are one of life's takers, not a doer.
Old 31st December 2010
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
1) the staggering volume of illegal consumption ranges from 10x's to 20x's that of paid consumption
It may not be an important point to you, but define consumption as listening regularly and your numbers are way off. But, obviously the volume of illegal is huge.

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2) the staggering 60% drop in revenue/sales of paid legitimate music consumption during the same time frame
Yes.

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A reasonable person would conclude that these two factors are in fact related, that when there happens to be a growth in illegally free, there happens to be a corresponding drop in legally paid.
Nobody questions they are related... at least, not many.

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There is really no scientific way to find the exact number of sales that are lost except to look at the exact number of sales that are factually declining during this period. Those are real numbers, real losses.
Yes, but pretending you KNOW the problem with the music industry is primarily piracy is beyond foolish.

Quote:
For those who are intellectually dishonest, or intentionally obtuse due to personal bias there will never be an argument good enough to connect these two data sets - despite it being clearly obvious that one is effecting the other.
I don't think anyone is saying they are not connected... again. I'm saying, yes, but piracy is nowhere near the full story. You are being alarmist (and I understand why) but there is ample evidence there is more going on then just piracy.

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Everyone can pretty much see that because the illegal consumption is so staggeringly beyond the scope of what paid consumption ever was it's mostly likely the case that every illegal download is not a lost sale.
As a matter of fact, a reasonable person would say there is nowhere NEAR a 1:1 ratio. People download things they never would have bought, and a lot of it. I have anecdotal evidence of seeing other do it, many others. All reports I've read show the same story.

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But I also believe that it's fairly obvious, that sales should have either remained flat or seen modest growth due the unprecedented size, scale and opportunities of legitimate digital distribution
Wrong, that's where things go badly. There are economics to consider, new business models, the move from LP to single, the ubiquity of legal free, the competition of the 'net itself as a competing entertainment form (youtube, hulu, etc)... all of these things add up to a NEW paradigm shift that WILL impact numbers one way or the other. Only a fool would think the industry would be rocked without having a significant shift in numbers one way or the other. It seems clear to me that sales would go down due to competition.

The increased points of sale would help, but that would be long tail, relatively small numbers. The blockbusters are youtube and video games, there are far more video games available then there was in 2k, youtube didn't exist, online games which are FAR more addicting an interesting then playing alone, etc. The entire entertainment industry has been completely transformed, and you expect little difference?
Old 31st December 2010
  #38
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Yes, but pretending you KNOW the problem with the music industry is primarily piracy is beyond foolish.
And yet you know it isn't?
How so? (Please don't quote 5+ year old surveys of 1200 people again).

As I was saying. If sales of EZdrummer drop, then I see a google search for the product returns multiple sites offering the product free (illegally) is it not common sense to assume the multiple and easily found illegal copies are hurting my sales?
Or......
Should I ignore the multiple and easily found illegal copies and wonder if music software users are suddenly going out to night clubs more often, or lost more money than usual at friday nigh poker and can't buy drum software this week?
Old 31st December 2010
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
And yet you know it isn't?
How so? (Please don't quote 5+ year old surveys of 1200 people again).
NOBODY knows it IS. I do not know, you do not know, pretending you do know is foolish.

Quote:
As I was saying. If sales of EZdrummer drop, then I see a google search for the product returns multiple sites offering the product free (illegally) is it not common sense to assume the multiple and easily found illegal copies are hurting my sales?
In the case of music, the point is there is no 1:1 correlation. It's just not that simple. There are many other factors. For example, using your example above... if it also happened that there was a huge backlash against electronic drums and/or programmed drums and drum replacement, then assuming the decrease in sales was because of piracy would be foolish.
Old 31st December 2010
  #40
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
For example, using your example above... if it also happened that there was a huge backlash against electronic drums and/or programmed drums and drum replacement, then assuming the decrease in sales was because of piracy would be foolish.
Of course, and any business person worth their salt would accept that.
But as it is I'm dealing with a reality.
Drum software is increasing in popularity, and the product is widely and easily found (illegally).

So you insist we dial common sense out of the discussion?

I read recently (absolutely true), that the Koala finger print is indistinguishable from the human finger print. Should we suspect the Koala of committing crimes when finger print evidence is gathered at the scene. Or should we allow common sense to prevail and focus on more usual suspects in the hope of solving the crime?
Old 31st December 2010
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
...
So you insist we dial common sense out of the discussion?

I read recently (absolutely true), that the Koala finger print is indistinguishable from the human finger print. Should we suspect the Koala of committing crimes when finger print evidence is gathered at the scene. Or should we allow common sense to prevail and focus on more usual suspects in the hope of solving the crime?
Everyone knows that koalas are decent, law-abiding creatures. But them shifty, no-good roos are a different story...
I don't know about you, but I'm off to get merry, sing "Auld Lang Syne" (badly) and wake up tomorrow to a blinding hangover and forget all my New Year's resolutions.
Old 31st December 2010
  #42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Everyone knows that koalas are decent, law-abiding creatures. But them shifty, no-good roos are a different story...
I don't know about you, but I'm off to get merry, sing "Auld Lang Syne" (badly) and wake up tomorrow to a blinding hangover and forget all my New Year's resolutions.
Believe it or not, I'm working on editing downloadable midi-files for a software company.

Pessimist me? Never. thumbsup
Old 31st December 2010
  #43
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
It may not be an important point to you, but define consumption as listening regularly and your numbers are way off. But, obviously the volume of illegal is huge.
or in your case change "consumption" to fit your bias in an unmeasurable way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Nobody questions they are related... at least, not many.
ah, progress!

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Yes, but pretending you KNOW the problem with the music industry is primarily piracy is beyond foolish.
all the data I'm looking at supports it - again, look at the two most consistent data sets 1) volume of piracy, 2) decline in paid sales, are consistent observations based in data. I don't expect to see that trend change soon, sadly.

and if I'm foolish (nice subtle attack on me there) then you've got your head in the sand and a chip on your shoulder - sorry about that... you opted out of the big mean record business in the 90s... so what...

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
I don't think anyone is saying they are not connected... again. I'm saying, yes, but piracy is nowhere near the full story. You are being alarmist (and I understand why) but there is ample evidence there is more going on then just piracy.
not much - if you look at all the circumstance prior to piracy and after, it becomes clear that the new x-factor is rampant piracy - there has always been competition for consumer dollars and sales grew, the economy isn't much of a factor (see the chart created from your data) and so all other factors combined are maybe 10% of the total decline IF there would even be a decline without piracy - which as yet there's no way of knowing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
As a matter of fact, a reasonable person would say there is nowhere NEAR a 1:1 ratio. People download things they never would have bought, and a lot of it. I have anecdotal evidence of seeing other do it, many others. All reports I've read show the same story.
I'm not claiming 1:1 and I haven't seen a person in these discussions do so either... I'm saying we'd easily see sales at a flat line from peak in 1999 and maybe even more given the size and scale of the digital marketplace versus the physical one. Piracy is reported as 95% of all consumption which is 20x's legal sales - I'm saying we'd see 2x's to 3x's current sales with piracy managed, that's reasonable!

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Wrong, that's where things go badly. There are economics to consider, new business models, the move from LP to single, the ubiquity of legal free, the competition of the 'net itself as a competing entertainment form (youtube, hulu, etc)... all of these things add up to a NEW paradigm shift that WILL impact numbers one way or the other. Only a fool would think the industry would be rocked without having a significant shift in numbers one way or the other. It seems clear to me that sales would go down due to competition.
WRONG! That's where things go badly indeed. There are economics to consider (again see the chart created from your data and the share prices of Hershey and Apple over the last ten years), new business models, etc, and seems to be they would go up, widely! Music is being promoted and exposed in all these new ways - which would surely drive sales as much as radio did when it drove sales. Or do you believe radio airplay had no effect on sales?

we are IN FACT in an unprecedented era for the distribution of pre-recorded music, and we really don't know how big that market is due the illegally free, consequence free supply of the same product, at the same time. No one really knows how large the market potential is (well, someone does, and you can bet they are profiting now from that info and will do so in the future as well).

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The increased points of sale would help, but that would be long tail, relatively small numbers.
How would you know?!

I've been selling music for 25 years and you left the mean ole business in the 90s after not liking the radio advertising side of it (is that even the record business?).

10,0000 points of sale to 500,000,000 in less than a decade! Instant access to the largest library of pre-recorded music EVER, at the lowest prices EVER and for the first time EVER the ability to buy songs at just 99 cents! You seem to have missed a math class if those numbers don't spell opportunity to you.

Have you ever tried to get records into a local market to support a band on tour? Have you ever tried to get records into a market to chase radio aripplay on a developing artist? Have you ever had to wait 3 weeks to get records into stores nationally when an artists song blows up on a Tv Show?

Sorry dude - but there are levels of this equation you have no idea of knowing sitting on the sidelines.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The blockbusters are youtube and video games, there are far more video games available then there was in 2k, youtube didn't exist, online games which are FAR more addicting an interesting then playing alone, etc. The entire entertainment industry has been completely transformed, and you expect little difference?
I would expect a difference, a lot more sales if the illegally free, consequence free supply of my product was not available as easy as a google search.

As per your last comment, you make my point, as it appears there's plenty of money out there for the things that are difficult to steal - and that is the bottom line.
Old 31st December 2010
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
So you insist we dial common sense out of the discussion?
Yes, because you are the owner of common sense. Nobody else thinks it's common sense that the music industry is impacted by the economy. Nobody else thinks it's common sense that the freakin' existence of the internet wouldn't have a strong impact (positive or negative) on the music industry, because it hasn't had any impact on any other industries. Nobody else thinks the internet is a game changer. Nobody thinks it's common sense to use ALL reliable, scholarly data as data points in how you think about the piracy issue. Most people think like you... people should instead trust a bunch of people you met on the internet who have some industry credits to their name. THEY are the ones who KNOW. THAT is common sense. It's common sense that people INSIDE of an industry are the best ones to understand the problems in the industry, that's why Dick Cheney invited the insurance companies to write laws, and that's why Obama invited insiders from the financial services industry to regulate themselves, common sense has shown how well THAT worked.

The only real "common sense" is the "common sense" that you are the owner of, is that right?

The thing about common sense, Chris, is it doesn't appear to be very common.
Old 31st December 2010
  #45
speaking of common sense... which seems to be in short supply around here...

the only way to have any "scientific" accuracy is to have ISPs report the amount of data traffic by category (Email, YouTube, NetFlix, Torrents, Rapidshare, MegaUpload, Porn, Skype, Etc) which no doubt they have and could provide - there is a very good reason why that information is not available (or at least I'm not finding them reporting it - monthly, weekly, annually, etc).

If computers can do one thing exceeding well - it's track data. Isn't funny that this data is not tracked and reported?

It would look pretty bad if the majority of their money came at the expense of the content industries due to the high traffic in illegal downloads of pirated content (Music, Movies, Videogames, Software, Books, Etc).

what do you think people are doing with all that P2P traffic, sharing pictures of Grandma's Birthday?
Nocturnal P2P transmissions account for 95 percent of Internet traffic

Quote:
in places like Eastern Europe, P2P apps can account for an astonishing 95 percent of all nighttime traffic.


more here:
Who's Really Destroying Music? Take a Closer Look...

and here:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sourc...c32B0Q&cad=rja
Old 31st December 2010
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post

all the data I'm looking at supports it - again, look at the two most consistent data sets 1) volume of piracy, 2) decline in paid sales, are consistent observations based in data. I don't expect to see that trend change soon, sadly.
Yes, ignoring any data that doesn't come from the industry is working well for you then.

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and if I'm foolish (nice subtle attack on me there)
I have no problem attacking you, if I wanted to I would have. Believe me, I ignore opportunities for the cheap shot in EVERY post I respond to of yours.

It IS foolish to think you KNOW. You are arrogant. You don't have knowledge, you have belief. Yes, I know, I'm in the same boat, and I have never claimed otherwise.

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not much - if you look at all the circumstance prior to piracy and after, it becomes clear that the new x-factor is rampant piracy
Well, sorry, but I think you're wrong. So far the data shows you are wrong, except the industry-sponsored data. I admit the jury is still out about what the breakdown is, and we will eventually find out.

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I'm not claiming 1:1 and I haven't seen a person in these discussions do so either...
John has actually made that point, I believe.

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I'm saying we'd easily see sales at a flat line from peak in 1999 and maybe even more given the size and scale of the digital marketplace versus the physical one. Piracy is reported as 95% of all consumption which is 20x's legal sales - I'm saying we'd see 2x's to 3x's current sales with piracy managed, that's reasonable!
It might very well be reasonable. It's also just made-up numbers. Like your attempt at the olive branch, when you try and split the difference between 95% and 15%... it's just made up. It could be right, don't get me wrong... but it is not something the best data we have supports. So... sure, believe whatever you want, you have the right. That's not knowledge.

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we are IN FACT in an unprecedented era for the distribution of pre-recorded music, and we really don't know how big that market is due the illegally free, consequence free supply of the same product, at the same time. No one really knows how large the market potential is (well, someone does, and you can bet they are profiting now from that info and will do so in the future as well).
You are 100% right IMHO.

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I've been selling music for 25 years and you left the mean ole business in the 90s after not liking the radio advertising side of it (is that even the record business?
Please. First, you don't really know about my involvement in radio. If you think I left because I didn't like advertising, you're an idiot. I was program director, music director, and production director of multiple stations. But don't let that get in the way of a cheap attempt to insult.

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10,0000 points of sale to 500,000,000 in less than a decade! Instant access to the largest library of pre-recorded music EVER, at the lowest prices EVER and for the first time EVER the ability to buy songs at just 99 cents! You seem to have missed a math class if those numbers don't spell opportunity to you.
Oh yea, that's what I said, there's no opportunity to make money at music... er... no.

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Have you ever tried to get records into a market to chase radio aripplay on a developing artist?
I've been on the receiving end, actually... I've had to tell many a yahoo on the phone that their band is not doing it for me. I didn't enjoy it.

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Sorry dude - but there are levels of this equation you have no idea of knowing sitting on the sidelines.
Oh don't I know it. That's the difference between you and I. I KNOW what I don't know.

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As per your last comment, you make my point, as it appears there's plenty of money out there for the things that are difficult to steal - and that is the bottom line.
Posted before, and here you go:

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Old 31st December 2010
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
speaking of common sense... which seems to be in short supply around here...
Uh. Yea, you think?

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It would look pretty bad if the majority of their money came at the expense of the content industries due to the high traffic in illegal downloads of pirated content (Music, Movies, Videogames, Software, Books, Etc).
Sure, it would be great to have that data... I like data.

But the pricing isn't based on usage, so your point doesn't really make sense to me.
Old 31st December 2010
  #48
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Yes, ignoring any data that doesn't come from the industry is working well for you then.
not true, just looking at all the data that is consistent 1) increased rampant piracy, 2) declining paid sales...lol, I'm pretty sure "torrentfreak" is not a part of the music business!

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
It IS foolish to think you KNOW. You are arrogant. You don't have knowledge, you have belief. Yes, I know, I'm in the same boat, and I have never claimed otherwise.
very well then, you spot it, you got it... you are the thing you hate the most... that's funny... arrogant... well, with that discovery made it does explain a lot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Well, sorry, but I think you're wrong. So far the data shows you are wrong, except the industry-sponsored data. I admit the jury is still out about what the breakdown is, and we will eventually find out.
Well, sorry, but I think you're wrong. So far the data shows you are wrong, except the outdated, inconclusive, biased small scale surveys.

but we know two things, consistently, 1) the overwhelming amount of continued and growing piracy, and 2) the measurable decline of paid sales at the same time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
John has actually made that point, I believe.
then I'll allow him to argue for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
It might very well be reasonable. It's also just made-up numbers. Like your attempt at the olive branch, when you try and split the difference between 95% and 15%... it's just made up. It could be right, don't get me wrong... but it is not something the best data we have supports. So... sure, believe whatever you want, you have the right. That's not knowledge.
back at you - there is no data to support anything other than 1) the overwhelming volume of continued piracy and 2) the measurable decline in paid sales over the same term.

factoring in all variables that we present prior to piracy in one form or another, the reasonable conclusion is that piracy is the new variable in large form.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
You are 100% right IMHO.
thank you

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Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Please. First, you don't really know about my involvement in radio. If you think I left because I didn't like advertising, you're an idiot. I was program director, music director, and production director of multiple stations. But don't let that get in the way of a cheap attempt to insult.
My apologies - I recalled from previous posts is was advertising related. No doubt you worked in the most ruthless, cut throat, disgusting, repugnant, sleaziest part of the business. I worked at the FMQB (in the 80s) I compiled charts, etc - I saw PD/MD's get shuffled around like paper scraps.

I saw PD/MD's fired for not adding records that we label priorities because of what went along with it.

Only two things mattered in radio, 1) money, 2) ratings.

I almost quit the business after that experience myself - but then I decided to work in another area of business away from all that... mostly... I feel for you... I wasn't built for that kind of gig and my hat is off to anyone that's done that job - it wasn't and it ain't for me...

It was a necessary evil for both sides, and I'm glad other people did the dirty work.

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Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Oh don't I know it. That's the difference between you and I. I KNOW what I don't know.
not witnessed here unfortunately.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
right - the ultimate I'm backed into a corner, got not place to go, gonna ignore all common sense, with the big get of jail free card... nothing is provable - the ultimate cop out against commons sense... so I guess you are going to start running finger prints on Koala's after all...

good lord dude... seriously... well, I'll keep that in mind the next time YOU KNOW you've got "the answers"...
Old 31st December 2010
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmycrack View Post
Perhaps there's more people like me who find that "music" isn't important to their lives anymore.
Huh? It seems more important then ever...

Some of the most followed and talked about people in 2010 were music artists, music is everywhere, it doesn't even have to compete, it plays its own game...
Old 31st December 2010
  #50
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Uh. Yea, you think?

Sure, it would be great to have that data... I like data.

But the pricing isn't based on usage, so your point doesn't really make sense to me.
sure it is, look here:
Verizon | High Speed Internet: Plans

and mobile data plans? Ahhhhhh....
Old 31st December 2010
  #51
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Yes, because you are the owner of common sense. Nobody else thinks it's common sense that the music industry is impacted by the economy. Nobody else thinks it's common sense that the freakin' existence of the internet wouldn't have a strong impact (positive or negative) on the music industry, because it hasn't had any impact on any other industries.
Errr, I have never said any of the above.
I think you're going over board in your need to put me down.
I just a few posts ago said piracy wasn't 100% of the issue. Of course not. That's common sense.
It's also common sense that in times of competing interests, global economic downturn, the last thing any businessperson needs is the product walking out the door unpaid for.



Quote:
Most people think like you... people should instead trust a bunch of people you met on the internet who have some industry credits to their name. THEY are the ones who KNOW. THAT is common sense. It's common sense that people INSIDE of an industry are the best ones to understand the problems in the industry
Ari Emanuel, Billy Bragg, Bono, Metallica, James Blunt, Lily Allen, The collective musician unions of Africa and Europe.
Yeah, all unknowns I met on the internet.

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The only real "common sense" is the "common sense" that you are the owner of, is that right?
See above list (which is of course incomplete).
So practically all the musicians who have come out against piracy are untrustworthy?
And in addition we should ignore everything they have to say on the subject, and instead put our trust in 412 students from harvard and 1200 Canadians phone polled, 1500 Dutch downloaders?
Like I keep saying, I'm just reporting what the musicians around the world are saying. I'm sorry that affronts you and makes you want to snap at me, as if this is all about me.
Old 31st December 2010
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
sure it is, look here:
Verizon | High Speed Internet: Plans

and mobile data plans? Ahhhhhh....
USAGE, not speed. I'm not aware of any non cell based provider who charges based on usage. Are you?
Old 31st December 2010
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
not true, just looking at all the data that is consistent 1) increased rampant piracy, 2) declining paid sales...lol, I'm pretty sure "torrentfreak" is not a part of the music business!
You are quoting data that shows the quantity of downloads. Those numbers aren't in question, as you know. Another smokescreen attempt. The only data in question is what is causing the downturn in the music industry.

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Well, sorry, but I think you're wrong. So far the data shows you are wrong, except the outdated, inconclusive, biased small scale surveys.
The only data that talks about cause of the industry downturn... take your pick, take ANY scholarly survey not coming from the industry.

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back at you - there is no data to support anything other than 1) the overwhelming volume of continued piracy and 2) the measurable decline in paid sales over the same term.
There is data, you just don't like it.

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right - the ultimate I'm backed into a corner, got not place to go, gonna ignore all common sense,
Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Posted again. Just because the two happened at a similar time doesn't mean they are related. You missed this:

Quote:
Since CD sales in the U.S., Britain, and Germany have been falling since 2000 and 1999, respectively it seems obvious to explain this decrease by pointing to the appearance of NAPSTER, which already attracted millions of users every day in the fall of 1999. However, the figures also showed that the Japanese market, the second most important market in the world, already suffered an 8.2% loss of CD sales between 1997 and 1999, but that it was up by 7.9% in 2000. In Japan sales were in decline even before the onset of NAPSTER, which industry representatives would probably explain by pointing to the emerging practice of ripping and burning CDs. For the French market no such simple explanations work. In 2001, an historic high of CD sales was measured before the recession startet in 2002, when the hype around NAPSTER was already history. However, since it is not very realictic to assume that French music consumers had not been aware of how to obtain music for free over the net until 2002, it can safely be assumed that they used NAPSTER as avidly as did consumers in other countries. Similarily, it cannot be explained why the UK-market – after a minus of 17.7% from 2000 to 2001 –was able to hold its sales level in subsequent years, despite the emergence of new P2P-filesharing systems. From 2003 to 2004 one could even observe an increase of 4.4%. In the UK, the first strong sales slumps took place only in 2007. Thus, there are empirical anomalies that put the “filesharing-thesis” into question.
Yet, to YOU, because you see correlation, that MUST mean causation... hmm... I guess I don't really get that whole "common sense" thing I guess.
Old 31st December 2010
  #54
Lives for gear
Quote:
What is the REAL cause of the music industry downturn?
It can't be the fact that people are stealing music using bit torrent and other methods. Because that is just silly.

LOL

Please humor me on this one: Occam's Razor
Old 31st December 2010
  #55
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post

Competing interests such as electronic gadgets, social networking, general global recession and some over supply have all contributed.
I tend to disagree. The global recession hasn't helped and may be responsible for a few percentage points. But the whole thing about more stuff competing for the dollar is a crock, and social networking is a nonfactor. Before social networking kids talked on the phone. The teenager lying on his/her bed with the phone glued to one ear, the tv on, and the stereo blasting used to be a cartoon cliche'.

Stuff competing for the dollar? Before electronic game consoles there were movies, pinball, bowling, sports games, dance socials, etc, etc, etc. And there have been home video game consoles and computer games since the early 1980s. There were arcade video games in the '70s - I wish I had all those quarters back. Remember, a quarter then was worth about a buck now.

Oversupply? Depends on how you look at it. There certainly is a lot more crap widely available. But does free crap compete with commercial product? I think not.
Old 31st December 2010
  #56
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
So many words but so little to say. OK.

You: DUH! Napster and the industry downturn happened at the SAME TIME so of course they are related!!
DAMN! He got hit in the head by a bullet - right between the eyes!

Oh, LOOK - He DIED!

TOTAL COINCIDENCE. Look, he was eating a Big Mac - cholesterol probably got him. Of maybe he choked on a bite of his sandwich. Or he could have been doing drugs and OD'ed....... Better check his appendix! You know, there are rattlesnakes around here...... Are you SURE he wasn't really hit by a car????? Maybe he isn't really dead - has he been eating fugu?
Old 31st December 2010
  #57
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Red herring, and besides you're not paying attention to the argument. The recession is in the '70s so newer data wouldn't help. The napster argument is from the late 90's and early 00's so again, newer data is not relevant.

Finally, the data he used includes one study from 2009 and two from 2007.

There is no possibility of you actually agreeing with ANY data that contradicts your belief, I get it.
First, that's entirely anecdotal - no figures. I thought you were the guy who was into data?

Second, that doesn't jibe with published sales reports, including the charts in this thread.
Old 31st December 2010
  #58
Quote:
Originally Posted by lord_bunny View Post
Piracy and competition from other entertainment sources.

When my dad was a kid the most immersive experience at home was headphones and rock and roll albums. You had to go to the movies to watch a movie and at home he had only a handful of channels.

Now Paramore has to compete with Avatar and xbox360.... so it's not just piracy.
There have ALWAYS been competing forms of entertainment. However not of that mattered AT ALL until the advent of widespread piracy on the internet.

Movies have been around about as long as recorded music. Video games since the '70s (home games since the '80s), pinball since the '30s and pool and billiards for centuries.
Old 31st December 2010
  #59
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The point in ALL of this isn't to say piracy isn't a problem, I'm not saying I agree with all this data exactly as presented.

I'm saying, regardless of your insistence that everything is OBVIOUS, that piracy is 100% responsible for the downturn, that piracy is the MAIN reason for the downturn, etc, the point is THERE ARE other opinions that are equally valid. There are other factors, whether you guys agree with the numbers or not. This isn't about me, as much as you want to make it personal.
Nobody is saying piracy is 100% responsible. We're saying it's 95% responsible, or maybe 90% responsible. Most likely closer to 95%.

Personally, I don't think any of those "other factors" you guys are talking about have much to do with it. The demise of broadcast radio as a vector for breaking new music and the demise of the print music press might.
Old 31st December 2010
  #60
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelpatterson View Post
I walk into my local convenience store to buy a cup of coffee and there's a big screen over the counter, blaring some kind of "news" reporting... I stop to get gas on the interstate, the same thing at the gas pumps, a screen with perky weather anchors and animated ads for coffee at the nearest convenience store...

I try to explain to my kids this is all new, the fact they can hop onto the Internet and find the world at their fingertips... and I say one thing that's really different is: when you used to see something "printed," like in a font and all, it was something "official," like a newspaper headline or a billboard or an advertising flyer, it had gone through some kind of review or some kind of channel-- but nowadays, anyone can type anything into their computer and presto-chango, it appears in a font of your choice and there is no "system" to make its way through, no "approval process" and no "gatekeeping."

And I think this is a useful metaphor for the plague of piracy-- the systems of old have been subverted by this technological revolution we've been witnesses to-- and trying to re-establish the controls of old, that everyone took for granted and accepted as part of life on Earth... that's the challenge right there.
One of your more astute postings, Joel.
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