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1.2 billion illegal music downloads in 2010 a record Effects Pedals, Units & Accessories
Old 23rd December 2010
  #91
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
No answer. Ok more direct. What do you know that contradicts what I wrote above?
Everything?
Old 23rd December 2010
  #92
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
You claim this repeatedly.
Not my claim actually... I'm just reporting the data that is out there. Read Terry's blog: Copyhype

I'm not going to go through all of this again. It's from a couple of months ago... I'm not going to take the time to find you the exact post but it's there.

Quote:
So tell us - what is responsible for the other 80%?
I don't KNOW exactly, I suspect it's a variety of things that you have already dismissed in your arrogant, know-it-all manner. But again.. what's the point? You are looking for data that proves your belief, everything else is bunk, right?

When you say piracy is responsible for 100%, you have already proven that you are unreasonable... nothing else to say.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #93
Lives for gear
so based on info movies are up there with music being pirated yet the movie industry seems to have a lot of money and ended up pulling out of it a good bit...3d movies in the theater along with high quality blu-ray really helped imo. still blu-ray can be pirated but it's a pretty big download some won't even bother with. music just has to offer something else with it like every digital album you buy you get a pair of concert tickets or entered into a prize upon purchase. i personally hate the mp3 and understand the fact its small,quick to download and the fact earbuds aren't the best quality void that out. ah i remeber the 80s and 90s when hi-fi big systems were all the rage, but somewhere down the line people stopped caring and with dsl being standard over dial up starting in 1999 killed it. the easier and faster something is to get it seems to get worse...

don't even get me started on sample dvds and audio plugins/software...i honestly don't see how any of those companies make money besides commercial studios where reputation and the studio is at risk and it outweighs the ease of it losing your whole commercial studio possibly. basically middle class 13-35 seem to be the adopters of all things pirated where as lower class minorities don't have the knowledge or access to the tech to do it. Still the under 18 demographic is the one to buy music with having a disposable income and no bills to pay...the economy doesn't help either for most.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattg082 View Post
so based on info movies are up there with music being pirated yet the movie industry seems to have a lot of money and ended up pulling out of it a good bit...3d movies in the theater along with high quality blu-ray really helped imo. still blu-ray can be pirated but it's a pretty big download some won't even bother with. music just has to offer something else with it like every digital album you buy you get a pair of concert tickets or entered into a prize upon purchase. i personally hate the mp3 and understand the fact its small,quick to download and the fact earbuds aren't the best quality void that out. ah i remeber the 80s and 90s when hi-fi big systems were all the rage, but somewhere down the line people stopped caring and with dsl being standard over dial up starting in 1999 killed it. the easier and faster something is to get it seems to get worse...

don't even get me started on sample dvds and audio plugins/software...i honestly don't see how any of those companies make money besides commercial studios where reputation and the studio is at risk and it outweighs the ease of it losing your whole commercial studio possibly. basically middle class 13-35 seem to be the adopters of all things pirated where as lower class minorities don't have the knowledge or access to the tech to do it. Still the under 18 demographic is the one to buy music with having a disposable income and no bills to pay...the economy doesn't help either for most.
I know that some here will be shocked, but it is hard to download a bunch of music at the library. There is a fair number of people that get their pirated goods the old fashioned way, on a disc from a dude that they pay for. I know of a couple of people that make real money at it. I also have occasion to look at a few thousand people's music libraries and they do not have the massive amount of pirated music that you might think they do.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
I know that some here will be shocked, but it is hard to download a bunch of music at the library. There is a fair number of people that get their pirated goods the old fashioned way, on a disc from a dude that they pay for. I know of a couple of people that make real money at it. I also have occasion to look at a few thousand people's music libraries and they do not have the massive amount of pirated music that you might think they do.
I'm willing to bet though about 80% of the people posting here have a number of pirated things on there computer and some of them have downloaded it as recent as the last 3 days. Still the only people I know pirating are usually the 19 and up white middle to upper class male. I still think that number given in the billions is a bit much if just for the states if it's worldwide possibly. Age,sex,gender and generation have a lot more to do with it imo than just the morality of a person. someone in their 40s-50s example might be a little bit more skeptical, concerened doing the right thing with kids, a wife and a different generation that wasn't as used to it as say the x and y generation where it's just a normal every day thing.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #96
Quote:
Originally Posted by bom619 View Post
I disagree completely with your rational. Music is simply worth less than it was a few years ago. It takes less money/skill to produce and less money to distribute.
Wrong. You might think that because the magazines and the gear pimps tell you that but guess what? They're trying to sell you something.

I can guarantee you that it takes no less skill these days than it ever did to create a viable product. If it took less then why are forums like this one crowded with people asking clueless newbie questions? Not only does it not take less skill and knowledge, it is far more difficult for the novice engineer to obtain reliable information about proper techniques due to the truly gargantuan amounts of misinformation being propagated over the internet and through those same gear magazines.

As far as equipment I can guarantee you that the average person with a "home studio" is not capable of creating a product that will stand up to professional standards of audio quality. The "affordable" gear simply isn't good enough. It's fine for learning on and adequate for demo work but for commercial release? No. I wish to god that it was. I wouldn't have to spend the significant amounts of money and time that I do maintaining my 24 track tape machine instead of recording into my 24 channels of A/D conversion - which simply do not sound good enough to me to use on aq product that I expect money for.

Quote:
Though the music business often defies logic, this is real and something we on the supply side of the industry need to come to terms with. I know that this is an unpopular perspective on this kind of forum but that's the world we live in. If it hasn't happened in your town, it will soon enough.
I live in San Francisco. What town do you live in?

You say "we on the supply side of the industry" - what exactly do you do in the industry? Do you make a living at it or is it simply an expensive hobby? If the latter, you're not really in the industry. Sorry. I, on the other hand, have spent pretty much my entire life in the industry in one capacity or another.

Quote:
Downloading music is just how kids check out bands. Whether or not they keep listening isn't up to those of us on the supply side of the business. The industry as a whole blew it by letting the genie out of the bottle (releasing everything they ever had on an un-protected audio format) and turning the youth culture against them by trying to put it back in (RIAA lawsuits).
Stealing music is how kids check out bands. When I was young buying records was how kids checked out bands. But we didn't have an easy way to steal the music. The deplorable situation with the internet tech companies facilitating widespread music piracy didn't exist. Also, the kids of my generation were brought up to believe that stealing is wrong. Sadly, we don't seem to have imparted that belief to our own kids.

Concerning that b.s. about unprotected formats - you can't protect an audio signal. It's physically impossible. As long as digital audio technology exists and is available to consumers it is possible to make a reasonable (by current standards) copy. Once one copy is made it can be replicated virtually instantaneously. Whaqt prevented this from being done before was that every copy had to be done in real time. Now only the first one does (if that) and there is no generation loss for subsequent copies.

Quote:
I don't feel sorry for the record companies at all and tying artist profits to their profits is nonsensical. In the early eighties, the majors were still smarting after the public turned against disco (causing retail stores to return unknown millions of albums to distributors). There were huge layoffs in the business starting in the late seventies that only stopped when the clouds parted and god delivered unto thee the 'compact disc' format. Obviously, the cd was kind of popular. The profits from the CD era were artificially inflated during the nineties as everyone and their grandmother were re-purchasing what they already owned on cass/vinyl. This was a huge windfall for the labels as it cost nothing for the intellectual property and they got to charge the public for albums like Hotel California three times (cass/vinyl/cd) in a span of 15 years. Artists were charged additional contractual premiums for CD's releases (a new technology at the time) which lessened their profit even more.
And you knowledge of all this comes from....................... where?

The internet? The "music press"? Wired magazine?

Have you ever known anybody who worked for a record company in any capacity at all?

Do you have any experience in these matters?

I can answer yes to both those questions and I was around during the events your talking about.

There is a small grain of truth to the assertion that the major labels in the US (not in Europe) blew it a bit by ignoring most punk and new wave in favor of disco and coliseum rock in the late '70s. What you neglect to mention is that this resulted in a whole generation of indie record labels springing up to carry the ball. Some of these indies became majors. A good examp[le of this would be Sire, which was eventually helmed by Howie Klein who had formerly managed several punk bands that I worked for. There were numerous others.

Unfortunately it's virtually impossible for an indie label to achieve this level of success now because piracy has sucked the profits out that are needed to develop new talent on that level.

Quote:
The price of music will continue to go down unless the recording business as a whole regains 100% power over the distribution channels like it had in previous years. I don't know about you, but I consider this VERY unlikely in the age of digital distribution. No one that has ever owned an ipod is going to go back to a wall sized rack of CD's and no one that makes a debut record will have to split $1.25 per copy between 5 band members. Sure, no one will sell 5,000,000,000 copies of anything but a band that sells 10,000 copies out of their trunk of their car can actually make a living. Those are my clients and business is good.
There is no reason whatsoever for the price of music to go down. Music already sells at bargain basement prices. The average cost of an album now is less that 20% of the cost in 1965 in adjusted dollars. Suggesting any further reduction is an insult to musicians everywhere.

It's also utterly pointless. Decreasing the cost of music will not increase sales one bit. Those who are willing to pay will buy the music they like at today's prices just as willingly as if the price was 50% or even 25% of current. In fact they would almost certainly pay double today's prices - I'm always astounded by how cheap CDs are when I go to the record shop. In a world where everything has increased in price at a absurd pace over the past 20 years the cost of music has actually gone down. That makes music the best deal you can get on the retail market - and people who actually BUY music are well aware of that.

OTOH the people who are comfortable with stealing their music are not going to pay no matter how cheap it is as long as it's safe and convenient to steal. The only way to fight piracy to to make it inconvenient and/or unsafe for the average person to pirate. This means knocking out the large, public, high profile distribution networks.

There will always be some level of piracy, but if we can reduce it to 1990 levels, when it took a significant amount of dedication, technical knowhow, and investment in time to be a pirate we'll be doing all right.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnkenn View Post
OK - lets say they're just off by 600 million...That still leaves 600 MILLION ILLEGALLY DOWNLOADED SONGS.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were off by 600 million - which would mean 1.8 BILLION ILLEGALLY DOWNLOADED SONGS.......

It's my belief - based on inside knowledge - that there is a large amount of piracy that goes unmonitored and unreported. Specifically, there are an awful lot of private bittorrent sites that are flying totally under the radar.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
Make the number as high as you want, but it doesn't mean anything. There are people with 10s of thousands of songs in their library. They aren't listening to them and they damn sure wouldn't have bought them. If easy downloading goes away, so does 90% of these downloads. It just isn't realistic to think otherwise. Think of it as a buffet. When people go the all you can eat buffet they gorge themselves until they are about to pop. Make them have to pay what they eat and they consume normal amounts.
You do have a point. But what do you think the percentage of compulsive collectors (Hoarders) is compared to the number of people engaging in normal, casual piracy? Although we all know one or two of them, I don't believe the overall percentage is very high. Furthermore, many of those people were active long before mass downloading became a problem, using private sites and networks like USENET.

As you said, it's like a buffet. Most of the people at the buffet will eat until they're comfortably full. A few (a very small percentage statistically) will compulsively eat themselves sick. However the total amount of food consumed by the normal eaters will still be many, many times greater than that consumed by the gluttons.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #99
1.2 billion songs heard!
Old 23rd December 2010
  #100
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Not my claim actually... I'm just reporting the data that is out there. Read Terry's blog: Copyhype

I'm not going to go through all of this again. It's from a couple of months ago... I'm not going to take the time to find you the exact post but it's there.
The most recent survey quoted in Terry's blog was 2006, most were dated 2004 to 2005. The majority of the research was polling a few hundred people, largely Americans, by the way.
The online world has changed out of all recognition in the last 6 years. In fact, a year or two can be a lifetime at current rates of evolution.
The 20% statistic might have been valid 5 years ago, I doubt it's even remotely relevant now.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
The 20% statistic might have been valid 5 years ago, I doubt it's even remotely relevant now.
The latest is 2007 actually. But... it doesn't matter. To put it simply... it's completely relevant... until there is better data. It takes time to put together studies like this, so they will always be a bit behind. Again, as I keep saying over and over... you go with the data you have, with the understanding that it may not be conclusive but it's SOMETHING, rather than made up numbers that you and others like to put forward. I would NOT be surprised if the number ended up being 40%... or even 7.5%. But I think the majority of studies show it's significantly less than the absurd 100% that John's "facts" tell him.

BTW, I'm actually being generous with 20%, Terry actually says 15% as his interpretation of the data. I am guessing it's probably more than 15%...
Old 23rd December 2010
  #102
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The latest is 2007 actually. But... it doesn't matter. To put it simply... it's completely relevant... until there is better data. It takes time to put together studies like this, so they will always be a bit behind. Again, as I keep saying over and over... you go with the data you have, with the understanding that it may not be conclusive but it's SOMETHING, rather than made up numbers that you and others like to put forward. I would NOT be surprised if the number ended up being 40%... or even 7.5%. But I think the majority of studies show it's significantly less than the absurd 100% that John's "facts" tell him.

BTW, I'm actually being generous with 20%, Terry actually says 15% as his interpretation of the data. I am guessing it's probably more than 15%...
A three year old poll with a sample of a few hundred people is less valid than my "anecdotal" informal polls of a few hundred people conducted over several months this year.

And neither one really tells you anything at all about what percentage of the losses of the music industry are due to piracy.

You're talking about what percentage of piracy comprises lost sales.

I'm talking about what percentage of lost sales are caused by piracy.

Totally different things. A>B does not mean that B>A. To equate the two is absurd, and merely indicates that you don't know what you're talking about.

I'm perfectly willing to admit that it's quite possible that, given the utterly gargantuan amount of music piracy going on, only 20% of it might comprise lost sales. But that 20% - or whatever percentage it may actually be - is responsible for 100% of the industry's lost sales.

I don't know how I could possibly put it more clearly.

The amount of sales being lost are most likely equal to 100% to 150% of the sales that are actually being made - this is based on the amount of sales being made immediately prior to the onset of the piracy epidemic, and may actually be excessively conservative.

Consumption of music is booming. Sales of music are tanking. Piracy of music is booming. Do the freakin' math.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #103
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John, the ONLY data I'm arguing is the percentage of the DOWNTURN in sales that piracy is responsible for. That is what the studies are trying to determine, and that's the number that is most interesting to me. I don't care about the other numbers, frankly. Those numbers, to my knowledge, are much less difficult (if not impossible) to determine.

As far as the relevancy of the data, trust your anecdotal evidence. I don't really care. You've already shown how your mind works quite clearly, nothing else really needs to be said.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #104
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
John, the ONLY data I'm arguing is the percentage of the DOWNTURN in sales that piracy is responsible for. That is what the studies are trying to determine, and that's the number that is most interesting to me.
You asked me what I know.
I personally know people who sell limited edition vinyl and then see some fans upload it for others to download free.
I personally know music software companies that asses the ease of copying a potential product, then don't make that product because it costs too much and the copying is too easy.

You don't know anything other than what you read on the internet.
Therefore you personally have absolutely no hope of ever verifying the actual percentage of downturn as a result of piracy.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #105
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The latest is 2007 actually.
Which probably means the research was done in 2006.
I tried to look at that paper back a few months, couldn't find it. I tried again now, and again couldn't find the actual report. Terry's link just takes you to the home page of the university.
Did you read it? How did you get to it because I can't, and as such i have to discount it as a source of relevant data.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #106
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
John, the ONLY data I'm arguing is the percentage of the DOWNTURN in sales that piracy is responsible for. That is what the studies are trying to determine, and that's the number that is most interesting to me. I don't care about the other numbers, frankly. Those numbers, to my knowledge, are much less difficult (if not impossible) to determine.

As far as the relevancy of the data, trust your anecdotal evidence. I don't really care. You've already shown how your mind works quite clearly, nothing else really needs to be said.
If that is the case either the people you are quoting are incapable of understanding the numbers, have no comprehension of how to measure statistics, simply don't understand the forces involved, or are flat out lying (perhaps to themselves, as well as everyone else). If the figures come from a student run (or in some cases even a faculty run) university poll, I would suspect the latter. You don't ask the thieves to estimate how badly they hurt their victims.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #107
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andreaeffe's Avatar
Exclamation To psalad:

psalad -

without wanting to re-enter the debate (an interesting one, with many good points being made at least from my point of view & in my opinion & experience), as I have said what I meant to and we (U & me) have clarified some misunderstandings, I have a series of short and simple questions I would like to ask U...

Please do NOT take these as a provocation, as tongue-in-cheek, as irony or whatever - it's just that, reading on as this debate progresses, they keep popping through my mind as I would like to be able to fully understand the angle and viewpoint and background.
Honest.

So, if U can & want, answer with short, direct, simple answers - if U don't want to, no problem and I'll fully understand, as nobody here is obliged or called upon to disclose any more info than he or she wishes.

So - here goes:

1) do U play an instrument or sing?
2) are U or were U in a band, or a solo artist?
3) do U perform live?
4) do U write music or did U ever write music in the past?
5) if so, is that music copyrighted in any way, i.e. are U a member of BIEM, ASCAP or SOCAN or similar?
6) if so, do U receive or have U ever received any money deriving from radio airplay, TV plays, live performances, download, record sales etc of your own songwriting?
7) do U have or have U ever had a recording contract?
8) if so, have U ever received any money from sales/royalties deriving from this contract?
9) do U work or have U ever worked for a record label/company?
10) do U work or have U ever worked for a music or music instrument or music gear retail outlet?
11) do U work or have U ever worked for some web-based music or other entertainment commodities sales outlet?
12) have U ever recorded, mixed or produced music for other artists/parties, so that U were paid for it?
13) do U own and/or run and/or work in a recording studio that is commercially rented out, i.e. used by people who pay for the studio time?
14) how many physical music CDs or vinyls have U purchased in 2010 so far (if U will, what music/artists too - I'm just curious of your music taste)?
15) what kind of music do U listen to (roughly, by genres), and/or play/make (in case U answer yes to the fist 4 questions)?

That's it.

Thanks if U'll answer, will aid getting the picture & the point.

As I said, no prob if U don't.

Peace,

A
F

Last edited by andreaeffe; 23rd December 2010 at 11:59 AM.. Reason: I forgot 2 questions! (now 12 & 13)
Old 23rd December 2010
  #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post

You don't know anything other than what you read on the internet.
Therefore you personally have absolutely no hope of ever verifying the actual percentage of downturn as a result of piracy.
So what you actually know doesn't contradict what I know... Right? You made no attempt in any case, probably because you know I'm right. Sounds to me that neither of us will have an answer without the work of others. It's not knowable by asking your industry friends or by reading posts here.

We are all in the same place. We won't know until others do the research. The rest we are just guessing. You think your guesses are better than mine, and frankly I think you are myopic. The research so far shows my guesses have been closer than yours.

So sounds like we are clear now.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #109
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Neenja's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by andreaeffe View Post
psalad -

without wanting to re-enter the debate (an interesting one, with many good points being made at least from my point of view & in my opinion & experience), as I have said what I meant to and we (U & me) have clarified some misunderstandings, I have a series of short and simple questions I would like to ask U...

Please do NOT take these as a provocation, as tongue-in-cheek, as irony or whatever - it's just that, reading on as this debate progresses, they keep popping through my mind as I would like to be able to fully understand the angle and viewpoint and background.
Honest.

So, if U can & want, answer with short, direct, simple answers - if U don't want to, no problem and I'll fully understand, as nobody here is obliged or called upon to disclose any more info than he or she wishes.

So - here goes:

1) do U play an instrument or sing?
2) are U or were U in a band, or a solo artist?
3) do U perform live?
4) do U write music or did U ever write music in the past?
5) if so, is that music copyrighted in any way, i.e. are U a member of BIEM, ASCAP or SOCAN or similar?
6) if so, do U receive or have U ever received any money deriving from radio airplay, TV plays, live performances, download, record sales etc of your own songwriting?
7) do U have or have U ever had a recording contract?
8) if so, have U ever received any money from sales/royalties deriving from this contract?
9) do U work or have U ever worked for a record label/company?
10) do U work or have U ever worked for a music or music instrument or music gear retail outlet?
11) do U work or have U ever worked for some web-based music or other entertainment commodities sales outlet?
12) have U ever recorded, mixed or produced music for other artists/parties, so that U were paid for it?
13) do U own and/or run and/or work in a recording studio that is commercially rented out, i.e. used by people who pay for the studio time?
14) how many physical music CDs or vinyls have U purchased in 2010 so far (if U will, what music/artists too - I'm just curious of your music taste)?
15) what kind of music do U listen to (roughly, by genres), and/or play/make (in case U answer yes to the fist 4 questions)?

That's it.

Thanks if U'll answer, will aid getting the picture & the point.

As I said, no prob if U don't.

Peace,

A
F
You first.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #110
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andreaeffe's Avatar
Arrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
You first.

Hey - no prob on my side, here goes:

1) do U play an instrument or sing?
Yes, guitar, bass, keys, vox.
2) are U or were U in a band, or a solo artist?
Yes.
3) do U perform live?
Not any longer except very occasionally for fun/guesting with someone.
4) do U write music or did U ever write music in the past?
Yes, I'd say actively since 1980.
5) if so, is that music copyrighted in any way, i.e. are U a member of BIEM, ASCAP or SOCAN or similar?
Yes.
6) if so, do U receive or have U ever received any money deriving from radio airplay,
TV plays, live performances, download, record sales etc of your own songwriting?

Yes, have and still do.
7) do U have or have U ever had a recording contract?
Yes, both indie and major.
8) if so, have U ever received any money from sales/royalties deriving from this contract?
Yes, and some still drip & drop in.
9) do U work or have U ever worked for a record label/company?
No, except as a hired producer - that, many times. And consulting/helping out on some issues & projects.
10) do U work or have U ever worked for a music or music instrument or music gear retail outlet?
No. Have good friends who work in/own gear & music instrument outlets.
11) do U work or have U ever worked for some web-based music or other entertainment commodities sales outlet?
No. Helped out with indie label's setting up direct & web order.
12) have U ever recorded, mixed or produced music for other artists/parties, so that U were paid for it?
Yes, all the time, since 1984.
13) do U own and/or run and/or work in a recording studio that is commercially rented out, i.e. used by people who pay for the studio time?
Yes, my own programming/preproduction/overdub/mix room (not a big studio).
14) how many physical music CDs or vinyls have U purchased in 2010 so far (if U will, what music/artists too - I'm just curious of your music taste)?
I'd say some 25.
New stuff I liked (that U might have heard of, like Ben Harper, Carney, The XX, David Gray, The Hurts, The Script, Placebo, Tom Petty, Saint Lu, Elysian Fields, etc and ones that U might not have heard of - local to this side of the world & the Mediterranean), or older/classic stuff that I like and am on the lookout for if something different or remastered is released (Neil Young remasters, Doors remasters, anything Hendrix including the "new" -sic- album, Morcheeba DVD+CD package, Simple Minds compilation, older Dylan reissues, etc).
15) what kind of music do U listen to (roughly, by genres), and/or play/make (in case U answer yes to the fist 4 questions)?
See above.
Generically speaking, rock, classic rock, pop-rock, singer-songwriter stuff with a good acoustic/rocking edge and intelligent/inspired lyrics, trip-hoppy electronica laced elegant pop with good songwriting.

That's it.
Is there a problem, officer?

Eh eh eh...

As I said - my question list is not a guerrilla action or a provocation, and it's a honest curiosity. And I was asking GS member psalad, not everybody.

Regards,

A
F
Old 23rd December 2010
  #111
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
So what you actually know doesn't contradict what I know... Right? You made no attempt in any case, probably because you know I'm right. Sounds to me that neither of us will have an answer without the work of others. It's not knowable by asking your industry friends or by reading posts here.

We are all in the same place. We won't know until others do the research. The rest we are just guessing. You think your guesses are better than mine, and frankly I think you are myopic. The research so far shows my guesses have been closer than yours.

So sounds like we are clear now.
no - the research you agree with shows your guesses have been closer (to what exactly?) than the research that shows chris's guesses are closer than yours.

at least be honest and consistent. there's a lot of research and reports out there that are closer to chris's point of view, but of course you just don't happen to agree with those...

does anyone really think piracy is NOT having a negative effect on sales? does anyone really think it's not the #1 leading negative effect on sales?

seriously?

is anyone who thinks the contrary actually working in the industry professionally as their primary gig day in day out to see the evidence first hand?

why is it everyone who doesn't actually work in the industry professionally is so convinced that piracy isn't a problem?

jus sayin'
Old 23rd December 2010
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
no - the research you agree with shows your guesses have been closer (to what exactly?) than the research that shows chris's guesses are closer than yours.
I think the serious studies, taken as a whole, lead you to a particular number. The nice thing is my personal bias is out of this equation, since I didn't select the studies. Terry did.

Quote:
at least be honest and consistent. there's a lot of research and reports out there that are closer to chris's point of view, but of course you just don't happen to agree with those...
Again... I personally think Terry has taken a pretty unbiased view, and has come up with the 15% number without my influence.

Quote:
why is it everyone who doesn't actually work in the industry professionally is so convinced that piracy isn't a problem?

jus sayin'
That's a positively STUPID question. I don't work in the industry, and I never said piracy isn't a problem.

umm... just sayin'... or somethin'...
Old 23rd December 2010
  #113
Lives for gear
 
nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
1) do U play an instrument or sing?
I play multiple instruments and sing

Quote:
2) are U or were U in a band, or a solo artist?
I am in three bands, and I write and record as a solo artist.

Quote:
3) do U perform live?
Yep, on average once every month or two.

Quote:
4) do U write music or did U ever write music in the past?
Always.

Quote:
5) if so, is that music copyrighted in any way, i.e. are U a member of BIEM, ASCAP or SOCAN or similar?
Yes.

Quote:
6) if so, do U receive or have U ever received any money deriving from radio airplay, TV plays, live performances, download, record sales etc of your own songwriting?
Very little, but yes.

Quote:
7) do U have or have U ever had a recording contract?
No.

Quote:
8) if so, have U ever received any money from sales/royalties deriving from this contract?
n/a.

Quote:
9) do U work or have U ever worked for a record label/company?
No.

Quote:
10) do U work or have U ever worked for a music or music instrument or music gear retail outlet?
Hell no

Quote:
11) do U work or have U ever worked for some web-based music or other entertainment commodities sales outlet?
No.

Quote:
12) have U ever recorded, mixed or produced music for other artists/parties, so that U were paid for it?
Yep! Mixed, mastered, recorded. Not a ton, but I've done it and made money at it.

Quote:
13) do U own and/or run and/or work in a recording studio that is commercially rented out, i.e. used by people who pay for the studio time?
Not really. I have rented out my personal studio, but no more times than I can count on one hand.

Quote:
14) how many physical music CDs or vinyls have U purchased in 2010 so far (if U will, what music/artists too - I'm just curious of your music taste)?
Probably 20-30 CDs worth of digital downloads. The most popular stuff is Arcade Fire "The Suburbs" and Peter Gabriel's latest, and Broken Bells. Indie stuff like The Civil Wars and Camille. Americana like Lyle Lovett and Rosanne Cash and Court Yard Hounds. Avant Garde stuff like David Sylvian's Malafon, and I bought some Hector Zazou that I didn't own yet. Quirky pop like Mieko, My Brightest Diamond, Neko Case, Cat Power, Charlotte Gainsburg. I also have a fair amount of hip hop, some hard rock, and a fair amount of ethnic/world music... positively LOVE Ozomatli.

Quote:
15) what kind of music do U listen to (roughly, by genres), and/or play/make (in case U answer yes to the fist 4 questions)?
"Listen to" is answered above.

I write a variety of music in a few of genres. My current stuff is more in the singer/songwriter vein (solo), plus I write more avant garde stuff with one of my bands (four musicians with looper pedals). In the past, you might call some of my music ethnic influenced progressive pop. I've also done some things that were more funk based under a different name, as well as some electronica crossover collaborations.

I play in three bands...
- avant garde band where all four members use loopers to create both structured and unstructured soundscapes and songs
- greatful dead influenced jam band where I'm the lead guitar player
- just for fun cover band with a bunch of friends (we only cover songs we like, and are NOT a working cover band)

This is an addition to my solo stuff, which is all original.

The music industry experience I have comes from the eight years I spent in radio as a Program Director, Production Director, and DJ. I have also done a bunch of radio production, voice over, etc, and I've scored a few local and regional commercials out of my home studio. I was full time self employed in radio production for a while.

OH, almost forgot. My turn-offs are mean people, and my turn-ons include long walks on the beach, seafood, and hikes in the mountains.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #114
Lives for gear
 
Neenja's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
no - the research you agree with shows your guesses have been closer (to what exactly?) than the research that shows chris's guesses are closer than yours.

at least be honest and consistent. there's a lot of research and reports out there that are closer to chris's point of view, but of course you just don't happen to agree with those...

does anyone really think piracy is NOT having a negative effect on sales? does anyone really think it's not the #1 leading negative effect on sales?

seriously?

is anyone who thinks the contrary actually working in the industry professionally as their primary gig day in day out to see the evidence first hand?

why is it everyone who doesn't actually work in the industry professionally is so convinced that piracy isn't a problem?

jus sayin'
Because they are far enough away from the issue to be able to see the entire picture? I see numbers you don't have access to. Real numbers from real people. I actually see a ton of people's (tens of thousands) media libraries and know that piracy is not the issue in 2010 that you think it is. Now, was where we are initially caused by piracy? I suspect so, and the Apple came in and further complicated the situation with $1 singles. But in 2010 people are buying music and they are buying a lot of it. They just are replacing $15 CDs with a couple of dollars worth of singles.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #115
you know I love you, right? ok... here we go...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
Because they are far enough away from the issue to be able to see the entire picture?
based on what exactly? net forums? what perspective does someone have outside the industry that is better informed than people inside the industry with more intimate first hand experience?

It would serve to reason that people inside the industry have the luxury of both perspectives, however people outside the inside only have one perspective.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
I see numbers you don't have access to. Real numbers from real people.
what is the source of those numbers? Labels? Publishers? DIY Artists? I'm just curios what the source is of these numbers is that would be counter to everything else being reported. It's a sincere question. You could have the Rosetta stone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
I actually see a ton of people's (tens of thousands) media libraries and know that piracy is not the issue in 2010 that you think it is.
How do you see "tens of thousands" of peoples media libraries? I totally respect our difference of opinion and perspective, but I'm genuinely interested in what is informing your point of view.

Personally I find it hard to believe that of a sample in the tens of thousands of personal libraries you are finding little evidence of piracy - I'm not even sure how you would be able to tell - it's not like pirated is denoted as such... it's just there, just like all other media.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
Now, was where we are initially caused by piracy? I suspect so, and the Apple came in and further complicated the situation with $1 singles. But in 2010 people are buying music and they are buying a lot of it. They just are replacing $15 CDs with a couple of dollars worth of singles.
Ah, yes - and again this is where you and I disagree...

Where you and I have to agree to disagree is over the size and scale of the market potential for legal paid music sales when there is NOT 1.2 billion illegal downloads (UK Only in this case) in the marketplace that are available without consequence.

One of the arguments that consumers have made is that if music cost less it would sell more - well, that appears to be true as it can't really cost less than free...

The promise of the internet is size and scale - 500 Million+ points of sale with instant access to the largest inventory ever available at 99 cents a song... and in the USA digital music sales look to have flattened this year.

I know you put forth that the $15 CD is being replaced by only $3 in song sales - but I'll put forth that the $15 spending power is still there, it's just been transitioned into non-easily illegally obtainable goods like smartphones (and data service plans), ipods, computers, harddrives, HD TVs, gaming consoles, etc - it's amazing how much money is still out there - what's also out there is the instantly available consequence free, illegally free product. A penny saved is a penny earned, so every dollar saved from downloading songs is easily applied to the purchase of the many products listed above.

Consumer tastes have never been deeper or more diverse, and I believe that without the illegally free, consequence free supply of recorded music, that industry revenue would easily double - which I also believe is very conservative given the shear volume of illegal downloads currently happening.

Does anyone really, honestly believe that piracy is decreasing and legitimate sales are increasing (in total net revenue)?

We can go round and round, and I know how you feel, but I simply and respectfully disagree with you.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #116
fun survey - I'll play.

Quote:
1) do U play an instrument or sing?
several instruments, none terribly well.

Quote:
2) are U or were U in a band, or a solo artist?
a couple bands when I was younger

Quote:
3) do U perform live?
about 20 years ago

Quote:
4) do U write music or did U ever write music in the past?
yes.

Quote:
5) if so, is that music copyrighted in any way, i.e. are U a member of BIEM, ASCAP or SOCAN or similar?
some of it

Quote:
6) if so, do U receive or have U ever received any money deriving from radio airplay, TV plays, live performances, download, record sales etc of your own songwriting?
not yet

Quote:
7) do U have or have U ever had a recording contract?
yes


Quote:
8) if so, have U ever received any money from sales/royalties deriving from this contract?
yes


Quote:
9) do U work or have U ever worked for a record label/company?
yes

Quote:
10) do U work or have U ever worked for a music or music instrument or music gear retail outlet?
oh the Hell no, thank God, Amen. Mad respect for those who do, I couldn't do it.


Quote:
11) do U work or have U ever worked for some web-based music or other entertainment commodities sales outlet?
no

Quote:
12) have U ever recorded, mixed or produced music for other artists/parties, so that U were paid for it?
yes

Quote:
13) do U own and/or run and/or work in a recording studio that is commercially rented out, i.e. used by people who pay for the studio time?
no

Quote:
14) how many physical music CDs or vinyls have U purchased in 2010 so far (if U will, what music/artists too - I'm just curious of your music taste)?
I get most of my physical product as promos for free and buy everything else from Itunes. The two exceptions this year are the new Neil Young album and the new Black Dub album - both of which I wanted CD fidelity and to support the artists with the purchase.

Quote:
15) what kind of music do U listen to (roughly, by genres),
alot of indie alternative stuff - it's easier to categorize my tastes by labels, artists... 4AD, Wax Trax, Opal, Eno, Lanois - ambient, ethereal, organic - some rock/metal, some electronic (all years & variations), and of course I'm a sucker for female pop songs.

Quote:
and/or play/make (in case U answer yes to the fist 4 questions)??
mostly ambient/experimental and/or poorly played instrumental guitar stuff of late... as a producer I do whatever is needed.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #117
Lives for gear
 
nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
Does anyone really, honestly believe that piracy is decreasing and legitimate sales are increasing (in total net revenue)?
It doesn't matter what people "believe." Those two items are knowable. The data exists.

But, again, that is not the question. The question is how much of a problem is piracy related to other issues in the music industry. So far, the data shows it's not as bad as people like you make it out to be...

Standard disclaimer: I've posted over and over, the data is not yet conclusive. Also, even if it's less of a problem then people make it out to be, that doesn't mean piracy should be ignored.
Old 23rd December 2010
  #118
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
It doesn't matter what people "believe." Those two items are knowable. The data exists.

But, again, that is not the question. The question is how much of a problem is piracy related to other issues in the music industry. So far, the data shows it's not as bad as people like you make it out to be...

Standard disclaimer: I've posted over and over, the data is not yet conclusive. Also, even if it's less of a problem then people make it out to be, that doesn't mean piracy should be ignored.
and it's not as minimal as you make it out to be - if the data is inconclusive (according to you) than it's inconclusive on both counts (according to you).

so why don't you just say you have your own biased opinion because you don't believe ANY of the data, rather than selectively citing reports that support your personal bias?

Isn't that what you accuse everyone of, who disagrees with you?
Old 23rd December 2010
  #119
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Probably 20-30 CDs worth of digital downloads. The most popular stuff is Arcade Fire "The Suburbs" and Peter Gabriel's latest, and Broken Bells. Indie stuff like The Civil Wars and Camille. Americana like Lyle Lovett and Rosanne Cash and Court Yard Hounds. Avant Garde stuff like David Sylvian's Malafon, and I bought some Hector Zazou that I didn't own yet. Quirky pop like Mieko, My Brightest Diamond, Neko Case, Cat Power, Charlotte Gainsburg. I also have a fair amount of hip hop, some hard rock, and a fair amount of ethnic/world music... positively LOVE Ozomatli.
I like everything there except Ozomatli! Lol!

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
- avant garde band where all four members use loopers to create both structured and unstructured soundscapes and songs
- greatful dead influenced jam band where I'm the lead guitar player
- just for fun cover band with a bunch of friends (we only cover songs we like, and are NOT a working cover band)
I'd love to hear the looper band stuff and the covers, not so much into the dead/jam band thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The music industry experience I have comes from the eight years I spent in radio as a Program Director, Production Director, and DJ. I have also done a bunch of radio production, voice over, etc, and I've scored a few local and regional commercials out of my home studio. I was full time self employed in radio production for a while.
without a doubt, radio was the worst side of the business... I started my career at a radio trade paper tip sheet - super sleezy cut throat side of the business, a necessarily evil for sure, but something I ever really wanted to be a part of, so I went indie in 1990 and haven't looked back...
Old 23rd December 2010
  #120
Lives for gear
 
nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
and it's not as minimal as you make it out to be - if the data is inconclusive (according to you) than it's inconclusive on both counts (according to you).
AGAIN... you have the data you have. It doesn't prove anything conclusively, but a reasonable person will look at the data and say it suggests things aren't as dire as you think. A reasonable person will reevaluate that position as new data comes in.

Quote:
so why don't you just say you have your own biased opinion because you don't believe ANY of the data, rather than selectively citing reports that support your personal bias?
I DO CLEARLY admit to my bias and opinion. I think the problem is worse then the data shows. I thought it was more like 30%. I'm not "selectively quoting" anything, as I've repeated over and over, I didn't select the reports. Terry did. How many more times are you going to make me repeat the same thing?

I have NEVER dismissed a piece of data, BTW, because I didn't like the conclusion. I only dismiss it if I've seen problems with it and/or if they haven't been open about how the data was gathered.
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