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1.2 billion illegal music downloads in 2010 a record Effects Pedals, Units & Accessories
Old 22nd December 2010
  #31
Quote:
Originally Posted by andreaeffe View Post
Hmmm...
I personally do take it with a grain of salt (and I absolutely agree with U on not/never taking anything at face value - it is a principle of mine, too).
But psalad DOES take some things at face value - such as the freetard argument that the data supporting the fact that piracy is the major cause of loss of music sales has been deliberately manipulated, which he has stated on several occasions.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #32
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
AF,

I think I mostly agree with you. The difference in opinion we may have... some say since piracy is up and sales are down, piracy is the main cause of the sales decrease. I say... maybe, but the evidence is not showing that right now. The best evidence I've seen shows that piracy is responsible for ~20% of the downturn.
Again you go quoting freetard propaganda as if it were fact.

Piracy is responsible for 100% of the loss of music sales. This is an indisputable fact.

Where the 20% figure comes in is that it has been proposed that 20% of piracy is responsible for this loss of sales. In other words, 20% of illegal downloads equals 100% of the money the industry is losing, excepting any additional amount that would have been due to sales growth.

This seems to me to be a fairly reasonable estimate.

If we add another 10% of piracy countering the natural growth of sales over the last 10 years, that still leaves 70% of piracy caused by hoarders and collectors who would not be actual paying customers in the absence of a easy way to rip off music.

That seems about right, if not overly generous.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post

Piracy is responsible for 100% of the loss of music sales. This is an indisputable fact.
Enough said, bro'... you've outdone yourself this time.

Quote:
Where the 20% figure comes in is that it has been proposed that 20% of piracy is responsible for this loss of sales.
Lord... no, you forgot to actually read the data. Wow...

Quote:
This seems to me to be a fairly reasonable estimate.
LOL... it seems to me a reasonable estimate is you are about 90% clueless. That seems quite reasonable too. That's the cool thing about estimates... they can just be completely made up!
Old 22nd December 2010
  #34
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Enough said, bro'... you've outdone yourself this time.



Lord... no, you forgot to actually read the data. Wow...



LOL... it seems to me a reasonable estimate is you are about 90% clueless. That seems quite reasonable too. That's the cool thing about estimates... they can just be completely made up!
What data didn't I read?

The FACT is my estimate is in no way made up.

When you're in a position to actually see the big picture you come to understand certain things, even when they contradict your original position.

Then, unless you're a total idiot (or a genuinely evil person), you change your position.

Take it for what it's worth.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
What data didn't I read?
You completely missed the point of the studies. That's all.

Quote:
Take it for what it's worth.
Of course! No problem there.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #36
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
That is very funny Chris. I have NEVER posted a link to something on their site as if it were to be taken without question. I have posted links to their site that added to the debate, that is all. I'm sorry that you don't seem to understand the difference.
I remember differently. I could remember wrong.
So here's my own tip of the hat to Torrentfreak (via yahoo):
http://au.movies.yahoo.com/news/arti...-film-of-2010/

Notice they claim movie pirating UP 33% in the last 12 months.
What do you think the chances music piracy has gone down and not up (again) over that same period?
Old 22nd December 2010
  #37
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The best evidence I've seen shows that piracy is responsible for ~20% of the downturn.
Is that the aggregated evidence put forward by the studies Terry linked to on his blog?
As I said when I went through them, I think the most recent survey/study was published 2006.
*You don't think there's been a revolution in digital music over the last 4+ years?*
Certainly the iPhones and Smart phones have changed music listening. And it's harder and harder to persuade ordinary music lovers to do the right thing when they see a lot of other people taking music illegally with no personal downside what so ever.

Quote:
All of that said, even 20% is big... so when it comes down to it, what's the point of the battle? The percentage doesn't need to be big for the numbers to be big.
Exactly, what's the point of the battle.....?
Oh yeah, that's right, musicians are being robbed blind and some Gearslutz forum members keep claiming we're not, or even if we are we should "get over it".
Old 22nd December 2010
  #38
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
As usual, you ask the wrong question.
as usual, you don't read my posts...
How Much Does File-Sharing REALLY Cost Record Companies? - THR, Esq.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Is that the aggregated evidence put forward by the studies Terry linked to on his blog?
As I said when I went through them, I think the most recent survey/study was published 2006.
*You don't think there's been a revolution in digital music over the last 4+ years?*
Sure. If you have better, more accurate, more current data, you know I'm all ears. You use the data you have, not the data you wish you had. You also note I never said anything was proven. I try not to make conclusions based on limited data.

Quote:
Exactly, what's the point of the battle.....?
Oh yeah, that's right, musicians are being robbed blind and some Gearslutz forum members keep claiming we're not, or even if we are we should "get over it".
Yet, you keep getting into arguments that are pointless. Focus on what you know, don't exaggerate, don't pretend a study shows what it doesn't, accept the current data as the best you have (until you get more and can reset), and focus on the fact that even 20%, which few would argue with, is a BIG number.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
as usual, you don't read my posts...
Hmm... very interesting, that wasn't.. the post... I quoted... of course.. heh
Old 22nd December 2010
  #41
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The article also says that album sales are up 30% and singles up 10%+. That's a lot of sales competing with free without consequence.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
I remember differently. I could remember wrong.
So here's my own tip of the hat to Torrentfreak (via yahoo):
"Avatar" the most pirated film of 2010 - Yahoo!7 Movies

Notice they claim movie pirating UP 33% in the last 12 months.
What do you think the chances music piracy has gone down and not up (again) over that same period?
on an interesting note though big movie sales are also increasing

it seems that people are still very prepared to go an see a big budget 3d movie , even if they have downloaded a poor quality divx copy of it
Old 22nd December 2010
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tvsky View Post
on an interesting note though big movie sales are also increasing

it seems that people are still very prepared to go an see a big budget 3d movie , even if they have downloaded a poor quality divx copy of it
That IS kind of strange... maybe people feel they have the right to free intellectual property they have enjoyed before? Makes no sense.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #44
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Yet, you keep getting into arguments that are pointless.
No, pointless for you perhaps, but then you're not the one generally starting the threads claiming piracy is no big deal, or that musicians are exaggerating.
So I should stop making my point because you've read it a few times now???


Quote:
Focus on what you know, don't exaggerate, don't pretend a study shows what it doesn't, accept the current data as the best you have
Errr, yeah I do focus on what I know. Nine times out of ten you pop up to discount what I know as meaningless anecdote.
There is no real world data, there is no real world data, there is no real world data. Well, at least there is no data, nor will there ever be, that would satisfy your need for 100% (perhaps even 90%) proof.
It helps if you are living it of course, which a few here are.... and you aren't.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
That IS kind of strange... maybe people feel they have the right to free intellectual property they have enjoyed before? Makes no sense.
possibly 2 factors at play

people seemed to have devalued content itself , but not the event of the content . they are still happy to go to concert , cinema (bigger the better) , theater , theme park ride . Even if they have seen the content before they are happy to pay for the big experience.

secondly they seem to feel that purchasing the content in some form gives them license to the content in other forms . This is also promoted by the content industries to some extent . Buy the Blue ray , get the free DVD and the AVI download . Buy the CD get the link to download the mp3 . Go to the concert get the mp3 of the show for free .

I do think however movie piracy is affecting the smaller producers , as in that link above the movie kick-ass made 10m at the box office and racked up 10m downloads . not much of a big blockbuster imax super 3d experience for that movie and sales suffer as a result

I have no college research to back this up , just my personal observations to mull over . so please do not attack me.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #46
They claim that 3D might save some movies.
There's your big event factor.
I disagree that live music is so healthy. Attendances are down in Australia and ticket prices heading south to try and attract more people.

Two different things IMO.
People are downloading content wholesale - their favourite music, favourite tv shows, all the latest films. When it comes to going on a date, or just out on the weekend, what do you do? Go to a movie or a gig of course. It doesn't matter that they've already downloaded the movie. It's something to do and somewhere to go.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Although I think the music industry 'agenda' is simply to highlight and halt the taking of product without paying.
No one will be forced to buy product they don't want. The industry isn't asking for government funds as compensation.
So, perhaps unlike other contentious debates where money may change hands, I do believe the industry is merely trying to highlight the problem in order to power better policing of our product.
Except that they are trying to get gov't intervention. They want laws to control an manipulate traffic by the ISP's instead of handling their own business and spending their own money. Laws that will impact EVERYONE else using the net. Just because its not the gov't handing them a check does not mean the gov't and money are not huge parts of the agenda these "studies" are trying to serve
Old 22nd December 2010
  #48
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Muser's Avatar
Taken from the wired article which Bob posted.


"The labels are reticent to admit their relationship with BigChampagne for public relations reasons, but there's a legal rationale, too. The record industry's lawsuits against file-sharing companies hang on their assertion that the programs have no use other than to help infringe copyrights. If the labels acknowledge a legitimate use for P2P programs, it would undercut their case as well as their zero-tolerance stance."

"We would definitely consider gleaning marketing wisdom from these networks a non-infringing use," says Fred von Lohmann, staff counsel for the Electronic Frontier Foundation, the San Francisco-based cyber liberties group that's helping to defend Morpheus, Grokster, and Kazaa."

once these seemingly opposing parties have consolidated their interests and positions both parties will optimize for their own interests.
both may well end up allied with a model which doesn't entail artists being able to profit directly from their creativity and ingenuity.
any technology which locks down and carves up the internet will be designed to leverage both these parties interests at the expense
of the artists and creative. The game for them is to intercede in the channels of communications and distributions and stop monetization
appearing in the hands of the individual.

both parties here are in agreement that this BigChampagne technology is extremely useful for them to leverage other markets or strategies.
It would be interesting to know (how) it is that BigChampagne can get this data. at the very least it is being sold to them by the P2P hosts.
or it is some facet of the P2P programs themselves which allow anyone in the know to gain access to the data. or it's the ISPs etc.

anyhow this phrase is interesting.
" If the labels acknowledge a legitimate use for P2P programs, it would undercut their case as well as their zero-tolerance stance."

it seems to indicate that the labels are playing both sides. that they have some licensing agreements with numerous P2Ps
(which we've already covered previously)
or that is other advertising parts of their conglomerate interests which profit from the advertising impressions associated with either,
the legitimate free download (and or) the illegitimate ones on the (same) P2P network. The illegitimate downloads are the ones which,
aren't licensed by them for a free download. However, the result of legitimate licensed downloads on the same network may well have
exactly the same impact on the artist as the illegitimate ones. because other parts of the labels conglomerate interests still profit from
secondary add impression deals.

this is probably why Fred von Lohmann uses the phrase "marketing wisdom"
The labels are even prepared to re leverage worldwide metrics on P2P network activity which is gleaned off the back of many illegitimate downloads.
and of-course the legitimate ones which have been sanctioned by agreement of the labels themselves.


BigChampagne CEO Eric Garland:
Universal Music toasts BigChampagne | Digital Media - CNET News
"The Internet has inherited the music business," Garland said. "When you look at MySpace plays, Rhapsody, iTunes, Last.fm, all of that dwarfs traditional music purchasing. Instead of CDs, we paid attention to this sleepy little Internet thing, but it happened when no one was watching. Well, we were watching."

an interesting site.
The Music Void Michael Gudinski Interview Music Video on MUZU.TV. The Music Void Music Videos
Old 22nd December 2010
  #49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
The article also says that album sales are up 30% and singles up 10%+. That's a lot of sales competing with free without consequence.
could you show me that?

year to date domestically album sales are down (all formats combined) by 13% that's another year to year double digital loss and digital sales have pretty much flattened - that means more losses in the aggregate no matter how you slice it.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #50
Quote:
Originally Posted by tvsky View Post
on an interesting note though big movie sales are also increasing
mostly due to increased ticket prices for 3D movies and that hollywood is pretty much moving to only "event" films - the kind that get people out of the house for the "collective experience" like potter, pirates, transformers, iron man, etc... also 3D kids films like Megamind, Tangled, etc, etc...

DVD sales are plummeting which have been the real profit center for years so know the studios are trying to figure out how to adjust their models as that revenue is on the very rapid decline.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tvsky View Post
it seems that people are still very prepared to go an see a big budget 3d movie , even if they have downloaded a poor quality divx copy of it
see above.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tvsky View Post
possibly 2 factors at play

people seemed to have devalued content itself , but not the event of the content . they are still happy to go to concert , cinema (bigger the better) , theater , theme park ride . Even if they have seen the content before they are happy to pay for the big experience.
that's at least partly about people still enjoying the shared experience. People still like events....and for many, going to the multiplex is an event, complete with multiple enjoyable rituals.

Sean
Old 22nd December 2010
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
could you show me that?

year to date domestically album sales are down (all formats combined) by 13% that's another year to year double digital loss and digital sales have pretty much flattened - that means more losses in the aggregate no matter how you slice it.
I would respectfully suggest that you don't post things you haven't read. To start with there is nothing "domestic" about that article unless you happen to live in the UK.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
I would respectfully suggest that you don't post things you haven't read. To start with there is nothing "domestic" about that article unless you happen to live in the UK.
found it... what it ACTUALLY says is... DIGITAL albums and single sales are increasing, but still not enough to offset the losses of physical product and there is still a NET LOSS in total revenue no matter how you slice it.

Quote:
The sale of digital singles is expected to hit 160 million by the end of 2010, up from 149.7 million in 2009. The same goes for albums, which are expected to increase from 16.1 million in 2009 to 21 million in 2010.
the article also points to the graph below (which is domestic numbers reported by soundscan)... but anyway, all the year end stats & recaps will be coming in the next month or so, and we will have all new fresh data to to look at for what actually happened in 2010. Year to Date that's a decline of 13% in year to year album sales and digital sales of songs flat with a slight increase in digital album - but all combined it is again, another year of net double digit looses.

Old 22nd December 2010
  #54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muser View Post
Taken from the wired article which Bob posted.


"The labels are reticent to admit their relationship with BigChampagne for public relations reasons, but there's a legal rationale, too. The record industry's lawsuits against file-sharing companies hang on their assertion that the programs have no use other than to help infringe copyrights. If the labels acknowledge a legitimate use for P2P programs, it would undercut their case as well as their zero-tolerance stance."
I know eric well and this isn't really the truth - the truth is the labels are just pragmatically looking at the data so that it could possibly help them with marketing new artists. This isn't even a consolation prize.

eric is a very smart guy and he knows the solution is in top down legislation, control and punishment of commercial infringers like youtube, google, rapid share, etc. he may not say that publicly but he says it privately... in other words, he acknowledges what we already know - the DMCA is an outdated joke and probably one of the largest legal loopholes in history to enable the mass scale fleecing of the entertainment and content industries on an unprecedented scale.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AudioWonderland View Post
Except that they are trying to get gov't intervention. They want laws to control an manipulate traffic by the ISP's instead of handling their own business and spending their own money. Laws that will impact EVERYONE else using the net.
The laws protecting creative people have been on the statute for 50 to 80 years.
All we want is the law not to break down into general anarchy.
If people routinely break the law, please don't come crying to us about how unfair the final solution might have to be. The law breakers are going to essentially ruin net freedoms for the honest folk.
Besides, stricter control of the internet is most likely going to arise as a result of Wikileaks and the growing trade in child pornography.
That's the final sad fact for the free for all internet.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
found it... what it ACTUALLY says is... DIGITAL albums and single sales are increasing, but still not enough to offset the losses of physical product and there is still a NET LOSS in total revenue no matter how you slice it.

the article also points to the graph below (which is domestic numbers reported by soundscan)... but anyway, all the year end stats & recaps will be coming in the next month or so, and we will have all new fresh data to to look at for what actually happened in 2010. Year to Date that's a decline of 13% in year to year album sales and digital sales of songs flat with a slight increase in digital album - but all combined it is again, another year of net double digit looses.
It is not possible for digital sales to compensate for the difference in price between them and physical sales. In most cases we are talking a $15 purchase in the 90s being replaced with a $1-$3 purchase in the naughties, but the article you posted shows strong gains in digital sales in the UK for 2010. The CD ship has sailed and there is no getting back on board and there really is no reason to discuss them anymore than there is reason to discuss wagon wheels.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #57
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
The CD ship has sailed and there is no getting back on board
Agreed.
As to increased sales, my industry sources have repeatedly told me the true industry reality has been masked by two huge phenomenon, both occurring in 2009 (relating to the chart data above): Susan Boyle and the death of Michael Jackson.
Boyle was a worldwide sensation, topping retail sales in many territories, especially the important American market. She was (unusually for a new artist) subject of an incredible amount of publicity, with weeks of primetime coverage in the UK, and endorsements by Oprah etc...
I don't think anyone would suggest Boyle heralds a new wave of innovative music.
During the few months after Jackson's death, anything related to him flew off the shelves, yes even tired, old CD's. That's not going to happen again.
When you consider the huge impact Boyle and Jackson had on sales in 2009, a mere 8% increase actually looks pretty scary.
So lets see what 2010 and 2011 bring.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Agreed.
As to increased sales, my industry sources have repeatedly told me the true industry reality has been masked by two huge phenomenon, both occurring in 2009 (relating to the chart data above): Susan Boyle and the death of Michael Jackson.
Boyle was a worldwide sensation, topping retail sales in many territories, especially the important American market. She was (unusually for a new artist) subject of an incredible amount of publicity, with weeks of primetime coverage in the UK, and endorsements by Oprah etc...
I don't think anyone would suggest Boyle heralds a new wave of innovative music.
During the few months after Jackson's death, anything related to him flew off the shelves, yes even tired, old CD's. That's not going to happen again.
When you consider the huge impact Boyle and Jackson had on sales in 2009, a mere 8% increase actually looks pretty scary.
So lets see what 2010 and 2011 bring.

While for 2009 you may be right, these are 2010 numbers for the UK. I actually find Boyle to be very innovative from an "industry" standpoint. It the industry doing what the people want instead of what they want for once. She shows that if the industry will get out of their own way, people will buy music.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
I know eric well and this isn't really the truth - the truth is the labels are just pragmatically looking at the data so that it could possibly help them with marketing new artists. This isn't even a consolation prize.

eric is a very smart guy and he knows the solution is in top down legislation, control and punishment of commercial infringers like youtube, google, rapid share, etc. he may not say that publicly but he says it privately... in other words, he acknowledges what we already know - the DMCA is an outdated joke and probably one of the largest legal loopholes in history to enable the mass scale fleecing of the entertainment and content industries on an unprecedented scale.
That's assuming the labels operate in a total strategic void in respect to the large conglomerates they are part of.

whether or not using BigChampagne would actually undermine their case is also debatable.
it's not as if a record label denying their use of it, makes BigChampagne disappear from any judges radar.

I just listened to numerous players speaking in those Music Void video interviews.

nearly everyone of them agrees that digital downloading accounts for a huge and unprecedented shift in how consumers (choose) to obtain their Music.

basically, this is how they themselves see the phenomenon. e.g. they see it as a change in (behavior). To me, this means that they won't (really) want to go down the road of forcing people to change behavior. regardless of its legality. it's entirely possible that labels are willing to play the Black-Hat cowboy and force consumers into the arms of their other well planned core businesses.

I don't trust any of them. They plan to win both ways.

the other new emerging realization seems to be that it's going to be advertising which drives most on-line and electronic content consumption models. which is sort of funny, given nearly all communications content consumption has been advert driven for years. which still makes me think that the advertising industry is behind most of the technology which causes artsts problems. when I say (behind) I mean that that in two senses.
Old 22nd December 2010
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muser View Post
That's assuming the labels operate in a total strategic void in respect to the large conglomerates they are part of.

whether or not using BigChampagne would actually undermine their case is also debatable.
it's not as if a record label denying their use of it, makes BigChampagne disappear from any judges radar.

I just listened to numerous players speaking in those Music Void video interviews.

nearly everyone of them agrees that digital downloading accounts for a huge and unprecedented shift in how consumers (choose) to obtain their Music.

basically, this is how they themselves see the phenomenon. e.g. they see it as a change in (behavior). To me, this means that they won't (really) want to go down the road of forcing people to change behavior. regardless of its legality. it's entirely possible that labels are willing to play the Black-Hat cowboy and force consumers into the arms of their other well planned core businesses.

I don't trust any of them. They plan to win both ways.

the other new emerging realization seems to be that it's going to be advertising which drives most on-line and electronic content consumption models. which is sort of funny, given nearly all communications content consumption has been advert driven for years. which still makes me think that the advertising industry is behind most of the technology which causes artsts problems. when I say (behind) I mean that that in two senses.
From a customer standpoint this all pretty much based on convenience. If they can't easily find a torrent list or some download site in Russia they will buy the single they want.
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