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1.2 billion illegal music downloads in 2010 a record Effects Pedals, Units & Accessories
Old 31st December 2010
  #331
I presume a drop in sales.
Old 31st December 2010
  #332
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Of what? And where?

It's important to know. If that's total music product sales worldwide, then Beyonce couldn't feed her cat from her slice of 6.3 billion.
Old 31st December 2010
  #333
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Still waiting for Psalad to tell us all why data from 2004/05 is so important to the debate.
Um... because it's SOMETHING, and people with a triple digit IQ like data? Because... it's the best data we have? Because... I tend to trust multiple points of data from a variety of unbiased non-industry funded sources (especially when they show similar results) over trusting the opinion of some guy on the internets... a drummer no less (couldn't resist, queue all the drummer jokes). heh

So yea, Chris... sue me. It's another data point, and it's not insignificant. So far the great majority of reports showing piracy as the main cause of the downturn have been industry funded (or even industry developed). I tend to trust the independent stuff.
Old 31st December 2010
  #334
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
why? what does it have to do with anything? the numbers represented are factual... what do the numbers you're making up represent?
Aaarrgghhh...
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Old 31st December 2010
  #335
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
(all live sound engineers should carry a flashlight at all times)
yessir

I have my LED flashlight and Gerber strapped on. I'd feel naked without them.......
Old 31st December 2010
  #336
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Um... because it's SOMETHING, and people with a triple digit IQ like data? Because... it's the best data we have? Because... I tend to trust multiple points of data from a variety of unbiased non-industry funded sources (especially when they show similar results) over trusting the opinion of some guy on the internets... a drummer no less (couldn't resist, queue all the drummer jokes). heh
I'm not asking you to trust me. I'm asking you to trust the hundreds of creative people who are all saying the same thing. I just happen to be one of the mouthpieces on this one, small forum.

Secondly, I think you just have to accept bad data is bad data and move on. Yeah, perhaps there is no reliable data, especially if you discount anything connected in anyway to the industry.
Unfortunately as you claim 'multiple points of data from a variety of unbiased non-industry funded sources' I'd have to point out you are sadly wrong.
Just about every blog or essay you've linked to (it could be EVERY one) have all referenced back to the same research - all dated before 2005, mostly researching CD's and Napster etc....
The one new research you've turned up is the Dutch research, although it's only a minor component in Tschmuck's blog, and you haven't discussed it yourself when separated from the outdated and small sample research you're clinging to.
Old 31st December 2010
  #337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
I'm not asking you to trust me. I'm asking you to trust the hundreds of creative people who are all saying the same thing. I just happen to be one of the mouthpieces on this one, small forum.
What about all of the people who disagree with you? How do I measure their opinion vs. yours? By your credibility as a great musician? No. Again, I can see how you use data here, and it's different than I would use data.

Quote:
Secondly, I think you just have to accept bad data is bad data and move on. Yeah, perhaps there is no reliable data, especially if you discount anything connected in anyway to the industry.
"Bad" data, in your opinion. Funny how all that "bad" data says similar things. Yes, it could be all completely off. We'll find out when we get more data. But as I say over and over again... I don't think it's "bad," I think it's not yet conclusive, and I think it's good data points that we can learn from even if we accept that it's flawed.

You find it worthless, I get it, I think YOU need to move on, accept that not everyone agrees with you. AGAIN AGAIN I have no problem agreeing to disagree with you. Why is it so damned hard for you? You don't know it all, neither do I. We're looking at the same data and seeing different things. Get over it. I'm not the only one.

You and your crusade have done a decent job, BTW, of shutting out some of the debate because people are tired of the BS. I have received PMs stating as much. You might be somewhat successful shouting down people here, but you're not changing minds, and you don't know anywhere near what you seem to think you know.
Old 31st December 2010
  #338
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted User View Post
Of what? And where?

It's important to know. If that's total music product sales worldwide, then Beyonce couldn't feed her cat from her slice of 6.3 billion.
knock yourself out:
Music's lost decade: Sales cut in half in 2000s - Feb. 2, 2010
Old 31st December 2010
  #339
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
but you're not changing minds, and you don't know anywhere near what you seem to think you know.
How would you know?

I've got PM's that very much support Chris and others in the importance of their perspective and input to these conversations as professionals!
Old 31st December 2010
  #340
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
What about all of the people who disagree with you? How do I measure their opinion vs. yours? By your credibility as a great musician? No.
Exactly right, by those other people's credentials. How many 'other people' who disagree with me have 1) any experience in the music business, and/or 2) are creative people.
Answer: not many, not many at all.


Quote:
"Bad" data, in your opinion. Funny how all that "bad" data says similar things.......
Etc, etc, another rant.
You still can't answer (after several pages now) why we should accept studies from four years or more ago, that studied things like Napster and CD's.
Can you answer that? If you can I might be convinced.

Quote:
You and your crusade have done a decent job, BTW, of shutting out some of the debate because people are tired of the BS. I have received PMs stating as much. You might be somewhat successful shouting down people here, but you're not changing minds, and you don't know anywhere near what you seem to think you know.
Give it rest with the personal put downs.
People are tired of 'the BS'? You don't perceive any 'BS' in studies of Napster from 2001 shaping our response to piracy in 2011?
You don't see any 'BS' in dismissing the thoughts of well respected musicians (Bono, Billy Bragg, Jean Michel Jarre, Elton John, Nick Mason, James Blunt, the band Keane and many others) as pure bias?
Old 31st December 2010
  #341
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
you don't know anywhere near what you seem to think you know.
The sad fact is whatever I know, you know less.

Anyone who has zero experience being in a band, zero experience in the music business (outside of local radio), and has never had anything of their own pirated, has some way to go to confidently claim what I do or do not know.


I'll go to my grave confident in that knowledge.
Old 31st December 2010
  #342
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Exactly right, by those other people's credentials. How many 'other people' who disagree with me have 1) any experience in the music business, and/or 2) are creative people.
Answer: not many, not many at all.
Not worthy of comment. We can just agree to disagree here.

Quote:
You still can't answer (after several pages now) why we should accept studies from four years or more ago, that studied things like Napster and CD's.
Can you answer that? If you can I might be convinced.
First, convincing you is impossible. That's quite clear.

You don't seem to understand the difference between not answering and not getting the answer you want.

For the final time: You should accept ALL data that is scholarly and unbiased, and aggregate it together. It doesn't have to be conclusive, and you don't need to accept it as if it IS conclusive. It's another data point. You don't have to give it undue credibility, that would be idiotic, but it's just as idiotic to completely dismiss it. Whether you LIKE the sample size, the date, whatever, it's just plain idiotic to completely discount 100% of the data because it disagrees with your belief system.

Quote:
Give it rest with the personal put downs.
People are tired of 'the BS'? You don't perceive any 'BS' in studies of Napster from 2001 shaping our response to piracy in 2011?
You don't see any 'BS' in dismissing the thoughts of well respected musicians (Bono, Billy Bragg, Jean Michel Jarre, Elton John, Nick Mason, James Blunt, the band Keane and many others) as pure bias?
I think I must have missed the personal put down... people ARE tired of the BS here, you and many others engage in shout down tactics often.

Here we go with the rock stars. I don't care about rock stars, Chris. I have no way of evaluating their opinions. I don't respect someone's opinion about business more because they can write amazing pop songs or can play the crap out of the drums.
Old 31st December 2010
  #343
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
The sad fact is whatever I know, you know less.
Really? You know... what... about radio promotion of music? How many remote broadcasts have you handled? How many radio stations have you programmed? What was your market share?

Quote:
Anyone who has zero experience being in a band, zero experience in the music business (outside of local radio), and has never had anything of their own pirated, has some way to go to confidently claim what I do or do not know.
Zero experience being in a band?? I'm in three right now, but don't let that bother you.

I know exactly what you don't know, because right now it's impossible to know.

Quote:
I'll go to my grave confident in that knowledge.
"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance."
Old 31st December 2010
  #344
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Really? You know... what... about radio promotion of music?
I'd love to hear about piracy from that perspective.
sadly all I get is a diatribe about how awful (the collective) record labels are.

Quote:
Zero experience being in a band?? I'm in three right now, but don't let that bother you.
Sorry, I should have repeated what i said before: signed band.
Weekend adventures filling in around the regular job don't count when your real living is on the line due to piracy (as well as other aggravating factors).

Time out........

I'm willing to accept any data I think is well researched.
Researching small groups of americans, on a global issue such as piracy, plus collating studies from 2004 and earlier, then calling it 'new' research is not good in my opinion.
In addition to my accepting data, I think you should humbly agree that the vast breadth of professional musicians, whether they be Africans, classical players, or left wing socialists such as Billy Bragg, are not ALL biased, money hungry propagandists.
They might have something valuable to input into this problem we should solve, as they are the victims. You never solve anything if you sideline the victims and say they have nothing of value to bring to the table.
Old 31st December 2010
  #345
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Sorry, I should have repeated what i said before: signed band.
Weekend adventures filling in around the regular job don't count when your real living is on the line due to piracy (as well as other aggravating factors).
Ahh, right. More of that "common sense" I guess.

Quote:
I'm willing to accept any data I think is well researched.
Researching small groups of americans, on a global issue such as piracy, plus collating studies from 2004 and earlier, then calling it 'new' research is not good in my opinion.
ALL data like this is pulled by surveying relatively small representative numbers of people... sampling.

Quote:
In addition to my accepting data, I think you should humbly agree that the vast breadth of professional musicians, whether they be Africans, classical players, or left wing socialists such as Billy Bragg, are not ALL biased, money hungry propagandists.
Of course! But because they are rock stars, that doesn't make them experts on the industry. As a matter of fact, often insiders have bias, and are too far removed from the big picture.

Quote:
They might have something valuable to input into this problem we should solve, as they are the victims. You never solve anything if you sideline the victims and say they have nothing of value to bring to the table.
EVERYBODY can have something valuable to say about this. I never said they they didn't have anything valuable. You are the only one turning away data.
Old 31st December 2010
  #346
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
I was a young musician in the 70's.
Was the recession a US only thing?
I can't remember a recession in music. Certainly there was no shortage of work for a young musician at the time.
Maybe album sales dipped for a while, but this was still the era of the super group, taking a year to record each blockbuster album. The only thing that swept that excess away was punk, not a crisis similar to what we're experiencing now.
No, there was no recession in music, US or anywhere. There was, however, a serious recession in the general economy.

But these kids are too young to remember.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
The numbers are reported in the article. There is clearly a downturn at the end of the 70's.
Actually, there wasn't. What happened was that sales from the new indie companies springing from the punk and new wave scenes were badly under reported. If a label didn't at least have a distro deal with a major its sales figures didn't make the charts.

In my local scene 415 Records (distributed by CBS) would have been reported. Alternative Tentacles (Indie distribution) would not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Also, time of the biggest innovation and reinvigoration the music industry has ever seen.
His conclusions, of which there are many, don't chime with my experiences of the time.
Claims like 'the 1980's became the decade of the super star' just don't chime with reality.
'77 through '82 was the time of the punk explosion. Around '81 the Metal Revival started to take over from punk and kept going full steam until piracy killed the margins. And that's not even counting the gothic/industrial and techno movements of the late '80s and the '90s.

These kids have a very limited view of what was going on back then.
Old 31st December 2010
  #347
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
Please apply iTunes to your favorite graphic. Things weren't that bad revenue wise until ubiquitous $1 singles. Then the bottom dropped out. It will not be long before we have a single point of sale and that will be owned by Apple. The worst decision that the music industry ever made in a large history of giant decisions by the music industry.
Not if I can get any interest in my idea for a legal Bittorrent based service.
Old 31st December 2010
  #348
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted User View Post
Not true. Music sales have been in decline since the early 80s. Long before internet piracy came to be. Many factors have played a part in it's decline including, but not solely, piracy.
Can I get some of what you're smoking?
Old 31st December 2010
  #349
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
Sales had a good surge as people converted their libraries to CD. That combined with a good economy made for really good sales to the end of the 90s. Then came Napster and ****load of horrible decisions by the industry as outlined above. The good news is that there is probably nearly as much profit in a lighter faster 6 billion dollar music industry as there was in the 14 billion dollar fat and bloated one.
Are you serious?
Old 31st December 2010
  #350
Lives for gear
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Ahh, right. More of that "common sense" I guess.
You do realize that you have a professional musician who directly makes his living in the music industry telling you that he has been personally affected by the loss of music sales, and you're effectively saying "no you're not"???

How exactly do you think that is lending any credibility to your argument??
Old 31st December 2010
  #351
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Yes, it's an 8.3 billion dollar loss. Let me show you another 8.3 billion dollar loss. Take the graph. Change the top line to $115 billion and the bottom line to $106 billion. Still an 8.3 billion dollar loss, but only a few percentage points. It's just a more extreme example of the original graph's bias.
But it's NOT $115 billion and $106 billion, is it?

So your comment has nothing at all to do with what we're talking about.

ARE you trolling?

Quote:
If you can't see that, then I can't help you. You don't have to take my word for it. Ask a statistician.
You mean ask a professional spin doctor?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Aaarrgghhh...
Keep on bangin'! Sense will eventually come.......
Old 31st December 2010
  #352
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
For the final time: You should accept ALL data that is scholarly and unbiased, and aggregate it together.
There is none. Certainly not in the "studies" you refer to.

Asking a handful of college kids about their downloading habits and whether it impacts sales does not make a scholarly study.

There IS good hard data on this problem. You can find it in the sales and download figures referenced in this very thread. THAT is hard data. The subjective opinions of a few college students is not. No matter how it might be written up for a graduate thesis.

You might as well ask New Guinea cargo cultists about aeronautical engineering!
Old 31st December 2010
  #353
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by soundrick View Post
You do realize that you have a professional musician who directly makes his living in the music industry telling you that he has been personally affected by the loss of music sales, and you're effectively saying "no you're not"???
Actually, I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying I think people are overblowing the impact of piracy on the industry.
Old 31st December 2010
  #354
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
ALL data like this is pulled by surveying relatively small representative numbers of people... sampling.
And that's why nearly all "data like this" is invalid - often worse than useles because it projects the biases of a small sample onto the greater population. Like (ugh) focus group programming of broadcast radio.

About the only thing stuff like this is good for is providing jobs for the morons who execute the surveys - if you consider that to be a good thing.

Quote:
Of course! But because they are rock stars, that doesn't make them experts on the industry. As a matter of fact, often insiders have bias, and are too far removed from the big picture.
Right. Like just because someone is a professional fisherman doesn't make him an expert on the habits of fish. But he knows a hell of a lot more about it than any number of people whose only contact with a fish is in a Mickey D's fish sandwich.
Old 31st December 2010
  #355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Actually, I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying I think people are overblowing the impact of piracy on the industry.
But you're saying it to professionals in the music industry who have been impacted by it personally, essentially telling them they're full of it, when you don't have any personal experience being impacted by it.

It's like someone getting fired from Target because too many people were stealing from the store, so they had to cut back. Then you come along and tell them they don't know what they're talking about because you saw a chart from 10 years ago that clearly illustrates Target didn't see much theft from 1989-1995.

WTF?
Old 31st December 2010
  #356
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Actually, I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying I think people are overblowing the impact of piracy on the industry.
We know what you're saying.

Do you?

You're saying that the effect of piracy on the industry is trivial. Not in so many words, but that's what the gist of what you're saying means.

We're saying that the effects of piracy have wrecked the industry, have removed all the capital that funded development of new artists, have destroyed the funding for tour support of established midlevel acts (not to mention breaking artists), have thrown thousands of people out of work in all aspects of music of which those who work directly for the majors are the smallest percentage, and have cut revenue by over 50%, conservatively estimated, across the entire industry.

We're saying this because that is what we have experienced.

You're saying that because you read a college study on the internet.
Old 31st December 2010
  #357
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post

You're saying that the effect of piracy on the industry is trivial. Not in so many words, but that's what the gist of what you're saying means.
Thanks John, because obviously I didn't know...
Old 31st December 2010
  #358
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Thanks John, because obviously I didn't know...
You're welcome. Always happy to assist.
Old 31st December 2010
  #359
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
because they are rock stars, that doesn't make them experts on the industry. As a matter of fact, often insiders have bias, and are too far removed from the big picture.
You would know differently had you spent any time with them.
In my experience they are often sincere people with a passion for music and creativity. Deep thinkers, who have often learnt by their mistakes and have a lot to offer in terms of advice for younger folk.
Kinda funny you just dismiss them repeatedly.
And I did mention the musicians union of Africa, and a large collective of European classical musicians - all campaigning against piracy.
'Rock stars' you say?
In any case, just because someone sells a decent amount of records and can fill a stadium doesn't make them a dick with no valuable insight to pass on.
Old 31st December 2010
  #360
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post

You're saying that the effect of piracy on the industry is trivial. Not in so many words, but that's what the gist of what you're saying means.
What Psalad is saying is there is another 'REAL cause for the music industry downturn', based on his passionate defence of the thread he started.
I agree with you, if there is another 'REAL cause' that must mean piracy isn't it.
There aren't other components, or a bunch of crises all hitting at once, one of which is piracy of course.
No, there just is the 'REAL cause'.
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