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1.2 billion illegal music downloads in 2010 a record Effects Pedals, Units & Accessories
Old 30th December 2010
  #301
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
it's a non-issue, I'll chart those numbers against the graph below and we'll see how it looks...
Your graph doesn't include the recession of the 70s. Actually, the article I linked to has MUCH more detailed numbers than this chart. If you care, there is some insight to be had there.
Old 30th December 2010
  #302
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Your graph doesn't include the recession of the 70s. Actually, the article I linked to has MUCH more detailed numbers than this chart. If you care, there is some insight to be had there.
no kidding -

re-read my post - I said

Quote:
I'll chart those numbers against the graph below and we'll see how it looks...

which means I will take all the data from the 70s and A/B against current - and I think the resulting graph will be pretty obvious to read.
Old 30th December 2010
  #303
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Why bother? It's a "non-issue" already. Why ruin your day when your mind is made up?
Old 30th December 2010
  #304
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
Why bother? It's a "non-issue" already. Why ruin your day when your mind is made up?
my mind was made up after I read the data... lol... see, I'm not like you, I read the data then form an opinion.
Old 30th December 2010
  #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
it's a non-issue, I'll chart those numbers against the graph below and we'll see how it looks... there's a brief two year dip, and then a massive rebound, and that's before the introduction CD's...
...
That chart makes the problem look twice as bad as it actually is... heh

(Yes, the problem is serious. Industry "life threatening". But exagerration never helps your case, for either side.)
Old 30th December 2010
  #306
I was a young musician in the 70's.
Was the recession a US only thing?
I can't remember a recession in music. Certainly there was no shortage of work for a young musician at the time.
Maybe album sales dipped for a while, but this was still the era of the super group, taking a year to record each blockbuster album. The only thing that swept that excess away was punk, not a crisis similar to what we're experiencing now.
Old 30th December 2010
  #307
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
That chart makes the problem look twice as bad as it actually is... heh

(Yes, the problem is serious. Industry "life threatening". But exagerration never helps your case, for either side.)
don, stop it - we've been through this... are you trolling?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
The loss is shocking enough without making it look worse than it is.
it doesn't look worse than it is, it is how it is... the baseline of the graph is "6 Billion" not "0 Billion"... the graph actually understates the truth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Admittedly, the graph wasn't produced here, it was in the CNN story - and "you" accepted it because it suited your agenda.
seriously? give it a break don - I accepted the information because it is accurate and changing the appearance of the graph doesn't change the fact of an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss... that's an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
If the facts and story had been that sales had dropped only slightly in spite of piracy, you can bet that the graph would have had a zero baseline to emphasise how slight the drop was. Standard tricks.
the only tricks are in your mind dude, it's still an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss... that's right... an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss whether looking at this graph:



or this one:



however, adding the zero base line clearly illustrates the aggregate losses are MORE than half over a decade and looks to be be more like a loss of 3/5th's... so adding the zero baseline actually shows the truth to be WORSE than in the CNN Article...

So I'd look in the mirror for evidence of bias and agenda's...

Quote:
Originally Posted by sound_music View Post
and again, if anything the graph UNDER-ILLUSTRATES the numbers.
true dat
Old 30th December 2010
  #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
I was a young musician in the 70's.
Was the recession a US only thing?
I can't remember a recession in music. Certainly there was no shortage of work for a young musician at the time.
The numbers are reported in the article. There is clearly a downturn at the end of the 70's.
Old 30th December 2010
  #309
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nuthinupmysleeve's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
I'm not like you
Yes... that is true.
Old 30th December 2010
  #310
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Neenja's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
So I'd look in the mirror for evidence of bias and agenda's...



true dat
Please apply iTunes to your favorite graphic. Things weren't that bad revenue wise until ubiquitous $1 singles. Then the bottom dropped out. It will not be long before we have a single point of sale and that will be owned by Apple. The worst decision that the music industry ever made in a large history of giant decisions by the music industry.
Old 30th December 2010
  #311
Deleted User
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Eppstein View Post
Piracy is responsible for 100% of the loss of music sales. This is an indisputable fact.
Not true. Music sales have been in decline since the early 80s. Long before internet piracy came to be. Many factors have played a part in it's decline including, but not solely, piracy.
Old 30th December 2010
  #312
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Neenja's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted User View Post
Not true. Music sales have been in decline since the early 80s. Long before internet piracy came to be. Many factors have played a part in it's decline including, but not solely, piracy.
Sales had a good surge as people converted their libraries to CD. That combined with a good economy made for really good sales to the end of the 90s. Then came Napster and ****load of horrible decisions by the industry as outlined above. The good news is that there is probably nearly as much profit in a lighter faster 6 billion dollar music industry as there was in the 14 billion dollar fat and bloated one.
Old 30th December 2010
  #313
Yes, agreed, horrible decisions.
Although the Apple one was forced on the music business with the loaded gun of widespread downloading pointed at their head.
Old 30th December 2010
  #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Yes, agreed, horrible decisions.
Although the Apple one was forced on the music business with the loaded gun of widespread downloading pointed at their head.
This was after 4 years of hand wringing by the industry. All Jobs did was take advantage of the situation. If the industry had acted instead of sticking their heads in the sand, the outcome may have been entirely different. Even with all of that the dip is mostly likely just a bit more than it would have been naturally (the thing that hurts catalog sales is that it is catalog) and we get the advantage of a more efficient system to work with.
Old 30th December 2010
  #315
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
There is clearly a downturn at the end of the 70's.
Also, time of the biggest innovation and reinvigoration the music industry has ever seen.
His conclusions, of which there are many, don't chime with my experiences of the time.
Claims like 'the 1980's became the decade of the super star' just don't chime with reality.
Old 30th December 2010
  #316
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neenja View Post
This was after 4 years of hand wringing by the industry.
Well, as we still have zero protection for online music distribution, what did you expect the music industry to do?
Secondly, again you like others assume the 'music industry' is one voice, able to move swiftly in tandem. In reality it's a collection of hundreds of different competing labels, acting as an umbrella for millions of different musicians and music managers, all with different needs and business plans.
The clear advantage Apple had was being one relatively small company, with one core business plan.
Old 30th December 2010
  #317
Quote:
Originally Posted by psalad View Post
I don't think you read the entire article. Please do. The music industry worldwide was hit by the economy in the 70's, not just in small amounts either.
really... your numbers and the chart it makes...

wow... look at that HUGE downturn in the 70s...

the years correspond to excel column numbers, the graph represents 36 years of data 1973 - 2008.

Excel graphed the years as follows:

1973 is plot point "1"

1979 is plot point "7"

2008 is plot point "36"



Old 30th December 2010
  #318
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
don, stop it - we've been through this... are you trolling?
No. What part of heh wasn't clear to you?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
... give it a break don - I accepted the information because it is accurate and changing the appearance of the graph doesn't change the fact of an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss... that's an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss...
Yes, it's an 8.3 billion dollar loss. Let me show you another 8.3 billion dollar loss. Take the graph. Change the top line to $115 billion and the bottom line to $106 billion. Still an 8.3 billion dollar loss, but only a few percentage points. It's just a more extreme example of the original graph's bias. If you can't see that, then I can't help you. You don't have to take my word for it. Ask a statistician.
Old 30th December 2010
  #319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted User View Post
Not true. Music sales have been in decline since the early 80s. Long before internet piracy came to be. Many factors have played a part in it's decline including, but not solely, piracy.
true that

Musicians and industry guys get it bad from all ends
Old 31st December 2010
  #320
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty James View Post
true that

Musicians and industry guys get it bad from all ends
really - look at the graph two posts up, does it look like it's been in decline since the 80s?
Old 31st December 2010
  #321
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Take the graph. Change the top line to $115 billion and the bottom line to $106 billion. Still an 8.3 billion dollar loss, but only a few percentage points. It's just a more extreme example of the original graph's bias.
Doesn't it depend on how established the business is.
I mean if the only store that sells organic perrywinkles in New Zealand suffers a 'few percentage points' income loss due to stealing, that only store may be forced to close, leaving their customers no where to go.
Like 'Fuzz' says, an 8.3 billion dollar loss over ten is just that.
You and Psalad not being professionals in the industry probably have no concern over an 8.3 billion dollar loss. But it would be remiss of musicians to ignore it and not identify the likely sources, one of which is PIRACY. Tada!
Old 31st December 2010
  #322
Deleted User
Guest
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz View Post
really - look at the graph two posts up, does it look like it's been in decline since the 80s?
My fault. I was thinking about sales of singles, not music as a whole.

It's interesting to see that singles sales have increased over 600 percent since the advent of iTunes.

I also noted from those figures that, despite the impact of piracy, there are still more albums sold now than there were in the early 80s. There also seems to be a slowing of the downward trend in album sales over the last few years.

EDIT: I would also assume that at least part of the downward trend in album sales over the last 10 years is due to the fact that customers no longer need to buy the entire album. They can just buy their favourite tracks individually from iTunes. This would also tie in with the huge increase in singles sales.
Old 31st December 2010
  #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty James View Post
true that

Musicians and industry guys get it bad from all ends
It's not unique to the music business. Anyone who wants / likes to do something so badly that they'll accept less than desirable conditions in order to do it ("the starving artist in their garret") will be mercilessly exploited by those who want to make a quick buck off their work.
Old 31st December 2010
  #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
It's not unique to the music business. Anyone who wants / likes to do something so badly that they'll accept less than desirable conditions in order to do it ("the starving artist in their garret") will be mercilessly exploited by those who want to make a quick buck off their work.
You think you've got it tough being a musician? Try dancing as a career.
Old 31st December 2010
  #325
Deleted User
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It would be interesting to see the sales figures for blank cassette tapes in the early 80s.
Old 31st December 2010
  #326
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted User View Post

It's interesting to see that singles sales have increased over 600 percent since the advent of iTunes.
I would also assume that at least part of the downward trend in album sales over the last 10 years is due to the fact that customers no longer need to buy the entire album. They can just buy their favourite tracks individually from iTunes.
Yeah, I think it's hard to talk about 'singles' and 'albums' these days.
One of the biggest music revolutions in the last 10-20 years has been urban and dance music. The vast majority of that music is designed to be a 'single' or 'ep'.
Essentially one main track, with extra value with remixes and perhaps an extra original track. This music would never go as an album, except for the few major artists and the hugely popular compilation CD.
So, It feel disingenuous for studies to claim music has moved from singles, to albums, then back to singles by design of the labels or as a factor of economics. It's all about the stellar rise of clubbing and music designed to be consumed by club music fans.
Old 31st December 2010
  #327
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Doesn't it depend on how established the business is.
I mean if the only store that sells organic perrywinkles in New Zealand suffers a 'few percentage points' income loss due to stealing, that only store may be forced to close, leaving their customers no where to go.
(Where's the "banging head against brick wall' icon?)
All, repeat ALL, I said (and tried to illustrate) was, the original graph didn't accurately represent the size of the problem. I did NOT try to say the problem wasn't serious or likely fatal to the industry. I just said the numbers were being manipulated to suit an agenda, by an apparently reputable source. There appears to be a lot of that here, on both sides.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
Like 'Fuzz' says, an 8.3 billion dollar loss over ten is just that.
You and Psalad not being professionals in the industry probably have no concern over an 8.3 billion dollar loss. But it would be remiss of musicians to ignore it and not identify the likely sources, one of which is PIRACY. Tada!
No concern? If it means a loss of something I love, then I'm concerned. If I wasn't concerned, I wouldn't be here.
Old 31st December 2010
  #328
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
Change the top line to $115 billion and the bottom line to $106 billion.
why? what does it have to do with anything? the numbers represented are factual... what do the numbers you're making up represent?
Old 31st December 2010
  #329
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
(Where's the "banging head against brick wall' icon?)
OK. Sorry.

Quote:
No concern? If it means a loss of something I love, then I'm concerned. If I wasn't concerned, I wouldn't be here.
I guess I was just seeing your 'only a few percentage points' comment.

---------
Still waiting for Psalad to tell us all why data from 2004/05 is so important to the debate.
Old 31st December 2010
  #330
Deleted User
Guest
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Hills View Post
that's right... an $8.3 Billion Dollar Loss whether looking at this graph:



or this one:

A loss? Really? Or is it a drop in profit? Or drop in sales? What does that graph actually show? What does the y axis represent?
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