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WHY is there a Spotify ad on GS when they are putting us out of business?
Old 7th September 2012
  #361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rack gear View Post
right, and that's a big IF... and, a big risk... which was my point. every seems so convinced about this, but when you look at the best and the brightest... they're not convinced... no one was having these conversations when Itunes launched. people hated single song downloads, but it was clear in every other aspect there was no avoiding an Itunes type store.
I think it's clear that there's no way of avoiding a subscription model.

The public wants it. Many great minds want to figure it out. Piracy will give the public what they want if the market won't. It's inevitable. It might not be Spotify but it will be someone.
Old 7th September 2012
  #362
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aroundtheworld View Post
I think you misread the post you're responding to. When Kenny writes "[Apple] would kill [the streaming] model instantly if they [bought Spotify]," he's saying that Apple has no need to experiment with alternative music distribution models because iTunes is already working (and profitable?) for them. He suggests that Apple would just as well shut down the Spotify platform if they were to buy it out, because it would be in direct competition with their iTunes and iCloud stores/services. That's how I take his post.

It makes sense, of course: companies that don't already own iTunes have a greater financial motivation to construct and grow a music streaming business.
Exactly. No other company can compete with Apple for what they built. So they need to find another way. Apple doesn't.
Old 7th September 2012
  #363
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rack gear View Post
perhaps - but it's telling that kenny also says that "apple has the only working model at this point." if apple is the only working one, that pretty much means that spotify is not.
No one is suggesting that Spotify is working yet.

But no one has claimed it's a failure yet either. We're not at a point to decide yet.
Old 7th September 2012
  #364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aroundtheworld View Post
Of course, but isn't that kind of obvious? Spotify isn't profitable yet. That doesn't necessarily mean it will never be profitable (how many businesses are instantly profitable?), but at this point Spotify's profitability and sustainability is far from assured (though it seems reasonable to suggest that -- given the level of funding and effort already devoted to the service -- Spotify's backers are comfortable with a focus on the long view). Kenny's point would seem to be that Apple would have no reason to take on the risk of operating and growing Spotify, and will probably be better off if the model never works and if they never have the competition.
Yes.
Old 7th September 2012
  #365
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rack gear View Post

to me this is what makes it like the housing bubble.
You keep bringing up the housing bubble as if it was a total failure. Many businesses and people thrived because of it for many many years. I bought and sold 2 houses during that time period and made almost 250k in the process. And I bought a third (the one I l live in now) for about 150k less than what it was worth 10 years ago. I know many people that invested in property, flipped houses for a living and/or had businesses that catered to this bubble.

Yes. It burst. It had to eventually. But it still was a working thing that allowed many people to buy homes with less than stellar credit (because the banks weren't afraid of losing money) and it allowed others to buy bigger and better houses with the equity in their homes. Not to mention the equity loans to start other businesses with.

If Spotify works as well and as long as the "housing bubble" it will be more successful than the iTunes Music store.
Old 7th September 2012
  #366
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenny Gioia View Post
You keep bringing up the housing bubble as if it was a total failure. Many businesses and people thrived because of it for many many years. I bought and sold 2 houses during that time period and made almost 250k in the process. And I bought a third (the one I l live in now) for about 150k less than what it was worth 10 years ago. I know many people that invested in property, flipped houses for a living and/or had businesses that catered to this bubble.

Yes. It burst. It had to eventually. But it still was a working thing that allowed many people to buy homes with less than stellar credit (because the banks weren't afraid of losing money) and it allowed others to buy bigger and better houses with the equity in their homes. Not to mention the equity loans to start other businesses with.

If Spotify works as well and as long as the "housing bubble" it will be more successful than the iTunes Music store.
I doubt that Kenny. If the housing bubble wasn't a bust, as a whole, for the majority of people, it would not have been the problem that brought down the economy. The simple fact is, a lot of people found out (and rather painfully) that there is no free money.

I did well in the bubble also, but I also know that I'm in a minority and it negatively effected far more people than it ever helped.

It's not called a "crisis" because it was overwhelmingly positive...
US Housing Crisis - Negative Equity Infographic - Zillow

just saying Spotify seems like the same type of magical thinking at work...
Old 7th September 2012
  #367
I can't see anything good in a housing bubble.

Inflation, yes, increased prices (within reason), yes, but a bubble is about over valued property selling to over leveraged buyers.

On Spotify working or not, it seems like the true guinea pigs are the musicians.
If the business model works we might eventually be paid fairly, until then they can't afford to pay a reasonable amount.
Old 7th September 2012
  #368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rack gear View Post
just saying Spotify seems like the same type of magical thinking at work...
Your claim is that Spotify won't become profitable.

The housing market was profitable for a very long time.

I don't see the comparison because many profitable businesses eventually run their course.

One might argue that the housing bubble is more related to the musical industry bubble that created enormous profits until consumers figured out how to get the content for free. Or with Spotify, at a very discounted price.

The time frame and scale actually line up a lot better. Think about it!!
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Old 7th September 2012
  #369
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisso View Post
On Spotify working or not, it seems like the true guinea pigs are the musicians.
If the business model works we might eventually be paid fairly, until then they can't afford to pay a reasonable amount.
I think that this is a fair statement. However the labels and the vc's all have a decent amount of skin in the game.
Old 7th September 2012
  #370
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kenny Gioia View Post
Your claim is that Spotify won't become profitable.

The housing market was profitable for a very long time.

I don't see the comparison because many profitable businesses eventually run their course.

One might argue that the housing bubble is more related to the musical industry bubble that created enormous profits until consumers figured out how to get the content for free. Or with Spotify, at a very discounted price.

The time frame and scale actually line up a lot better. Think about it!!
Apple May Build Web Radio Service Like Pandora - Peter Kafka - Media - AllThingsD
Old 7th September 2012
  #371
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I'd be suprised if they enter the streaming market during 2012. Interesting article though.
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