Quote:
Originally Posted by
Frank_Case
We are in a recession, that's why. An economic boom floats all ships. But when the tide goes out, the weakest perish. Been happening that way for thousands of years. Nothing new. Many of the unemployed you alluded to are those of weakest talent. Ever so often they need to be culled by the system. Those with stronger talents are thriving and doing fine. And the loss of the weakest makes way for new emerging talent to take their place. We are on the precipice of a great new boom in music. These things work in cycles. You just have to have the eyes to see and the ears to hear.
here's 1973 - 2008...
the years correspond to excel row numbers, the graph represents 36 years of data 1973 - 2008.
Excel graphed the years as follows:
1973 is plot point "1"
1979 is plot point "7"
1999 is plot point "27"
2008 is plot point "36"
data source:
http://musicbusinessresearch.files.w...obal-sales.jpg
so it looks like the economy and consumer competition really isn't that big of a factor after all, again, looking at 36 years of data...
each decade saw it's own added consumer competition...
the 70s saw the initial release of VCRs and Video Cassettes as well as video game consoles and cartridges,
the 80s saw home video boom as VHS matured, cable tv boomed, new types of youth sports took hold,
the 90s saw the introduction of DVDs, home computers became household items, people started paying for internet service, and cell phones began to be common place...
and yet through each one of those decades (without rampant online piracy) sales grew steadily until broadband reaches ubiquity at the turn of the century...
then, the sales plummet.
you can choose to ignore this like you can choose to ignore a train crossing or a stop sign, but it's foolish and irrational to do so.
and then there's this...
Digital Music News - Broadband Penetration vs. Album Sales, 2000-2010...
and of course this...
the promise of the internet is size and scale
this is what the proponents of micro economics and internet flat tax surcharges promote and it should have worked for recorded music.
alot of people have pointed to the transition from albums to individual songs as being the cause of reduced revenue for the record industry
I understand where on the surface one could make this argument, however... it should follow the argument made by the pricing proponents
in 1999 in the USA there were probably 10 thousand retail points of sale for physical music, tower, sam goody, target, walmart, etc.
at the time they were selling $20 dollar physical discs - much of the overhead due to physical packaging, manufacturing, shipping and stocking fees.
these physical retail locations had all the problems of supply side inventory management - a band would be on tour, and no stock would be in that market, a song would be played on the radio and the album would quickly be out of stock, etc. a tv show or commercial features a song and suddenly there is demand, but no availability.
these supply side inventory issues combined with limited points of sale were a massive problem for the record industry.
digital distribution has none of these problems
today someone can walk from their living room to their computer (or it may be on their lap) to order the latest hot song, featured in Gossip Girl.
so today in 2010 there are an estimated 500 million* retail points of sale for prerecorded music via itunes alone.
*500 Million_Active_Itunes_Users
just stop and think about this for a second... we went from 10 thousand points of sale to 500 Million points of sale in less than a decade and removed all of the supply side inventory issues... wow.
the promise, size and scale of the internet should have seen sales of pre-recorded music increase, massively...
there is frequent argument made that if music cost less, it would sell more... well, we now have 99 cent songs and 9.99 albums and sales have dropped by half in a decade...
so the industry adapted by:
1) removing inventory problems
2) making music instantly available
3) allowing for songs to be sold individually at a price never before possible and...
4) dropped the price of the album by half of the retail list price of a decade ago
it's NOT the economy...