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Vintage High end gear as investment?
Old 9th July 2017
  #31
Some of my father's car nut friend were wealthy and had vintage cars as "investments" but sometime in the mid 80's the bottom fell out of the market and it was very worrying for them.

I don't know if I would have the nerve to tell a wife or significant other that vintage gear I wanted to buy would be "an investment".

Just sayn
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Old 9th July 2017
  #32
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Originally Posted by dbjp View Post
When have speakers ever appreciated in value?
LS35A's did (and still are) - they might be quite unusual in that regard though.
Old 9th July 2017
  #33
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Originally Posted by rowmat View Post
I knew a retired ABC radio broadcast engineer (Australian Broadcasting Commission) and he told me that he sold a pair of his personal U67's for $500 (for the pair) 30 years ago after his wife kept complaining that they took up too much space in the top of the wardrobe.

He bought them via the ABC's government auction in the 1970's when they were decommissioned to be replaced by U87's. He thought they had about a dozen U67's in total for recording orchestras etc.

I nearly choked on my coffee and so did he when I told him what they were worth.

And here's a Neumann U77 (see pic) I bought for $300 (not working) from another ex ABC radio guy about 28 years ago. A 10 minute solder job and it was fixed. The same ex ABC guy also found me a Neumann KMS 84i in a pawnshop for $30. That was around the same time he sold me the U77.

I also picked up a bunch of other stuff for peanuts from him including a Neve 3115 module which was a spare for one of several ex ABC Neve Melbourn broadcast consoles that also got auctioned off in the early 1980's for cheap.

The catch is this was all before the internet, eBay and forums like this.
So these deals are much fewer and far between these days.

Like I said, invest in a time machine.
Or acquire your own personal ex-ABC guy (and maybe put him on a salary to go pawn shop hunting full time).
Old 9th July 2017
  #34
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Originally Posted by Jules View Post
I don't know if I would have the nerve to tell a wife or significant other that vintage gear I wanted to buy would be "an investment".
Well, it's all legitimately an investment (providing you are making money with the gear) in the sense of "re-investing in your business".

Doesn't necessarily make it a good investment - depends on the gear and what you manage to do with it.
Old 9th July 2017
  #35
In 2010 I bought a Neve BCM10 full of vintage 1084's. I paid $58k then. Today people ask $80k or even $90k for a vintage BCM!
Also, the currency in my country at that time was 70% lower than today's currency, so I guess in that specific case I made a good investment.

I bought that console to use it, not as an investment by any means, but it paid by itself and its still working every single day while its price grows up every year.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #36
Buying audio gear as an "investment" is gambling. Buying vintage audio gear as an investment is literally throwing your money away. It misses the point of getting in early, and at the bottom.

Investing (going long in this case) is seeing an emerging trend, buying in, and riding that wave until the price is at or near its max, and then selling for profit before the trend reverses.

Market trends are hard to spot early. But even harder is spotting a trend in the desirability of a specific piece of esoteric equipment. It's so hard that you might as well play slots.

The difference between gambling and investing is the amount of foresight you can have into the future.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #37
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If you purchase a secondhand API 512 or Neve 1073 today, it will be worth substantially more 10 years from now.


This isn't rocket science.

It's called inflation. The 2007-2008 crisis showed us one thing: the Fed will print as much as it takes to keep the economy moving.

Anyway, it's not all manufacturers, of course. M-Audio isn't Neve. Converters aren't mic preamps.

A little common sense goes a long way.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #38
I disagree.

I think you're guessing. You might be right. But we don't know. In 10 years it might be worthless.

Common sense is a myth that people often use to avoid really studying how things work. Sometimes things are simple, sometimes they aren't. But knowing when things are not simple is more useful when investing than guessing at or assuming outcomes.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #39
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One other thing to note : it's not an investment if you're not willing to sell it in a heartbeat if/when the opportunity arrises. My wife is waaaay to smart for me to call stuff an investment. She knows I'll never sell it.....
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Old 9th July 2017
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gusss View Post
LS35A's did (and still are) - they might be quite unusual in that regard though.
Couple things -- those are more of an audiophile thing, and we know those people have more money than sense. Also, it's geographic. Most of the speakers are in the UK with a few in the US, while the big demand is in the Far East. Mine went to Singapore. For a pretty penny. :-)
Old 9th July 2017
  #41
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Originally Posted by drBill View Post
My wife is waaaay to smart for me to call stuff an investment. She knows I'll never sell it.....
Ditto. It takes a special pair of kahunas for me to pull that one off. She's my own built in limiter.
Old 9th July 2017
  #42
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Originally Posted by Brent Hahn View Post
Couple things -- those are more of an audiophile thing, and we know those people have more money than sense. Also, it's geographic. Most of the speakers are in the UK with a few in the US, while the big demand is in the Far East. Mine went to Singapore. For a pretty penny. :-)
This is all true - mine went to Hong Kong
Wouldnt some of the old desks like Cadac have increased in value ? To be honest if I was looking for a sure investment - Id by an orchard or some sort of land not a pair of speakers ! Still nice to have your money tied up in spmething you use and get pleasure and money out of . I have a friend with a lot of "hi end " gear - all the classic stuff - I suspect if he sold it he's be lucky to get half what he paid for it. He is happy though .
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Old 9th July 2017
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enlightened Hand View Post
I disagree.

I think you're guessing. You might be right. But we don't know. In 10 years it might be worthless.

Common sense is a myth that people often use to avoid really studying how things work. Sometimes things are simple, sometimes they aren't. But knowing when things are not simple is more useful when investing than guessing at or assuming outcomes.
It's all guessing or "speculating"; no one would deny this. Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle revealed this fundamental paradox.

However, certain things are far more likely (probability) than others.

So, for example, the likelihood that a Neve 1073 module will cost more USD 10 years from now is highly likely. The odds that the GBP will tank or that the world economy will enter a deflationary cycle is highly unlikely.

What are the factors of production? Land, labor, capital and entrepreneurial ability.

I don't see Neve scaling up, therefore, Neve 1073, like BAE 1073 et al. will continue to rise in cost and price.

I don't believe they would pass cost savings on anyway - it would hurt the brand.

Cheaper substitutes will put even more upward pressure (in my view) on premium brands as "status" objects.


Now, for some, this timeline is too far to imagine. I know people that can't tell you what's going on day to day, never mind next week or next month. But for some people, this level of speculation isn't problematic.

The nature of the current economic order is inflationary.

Purchasing a Neve 1073 at or below market value today, will be worth as much if not more 10 years from now. I don't believe buying a Neve 1073 today, as a buy and hold store of value, is anymore risky than buying a share in a decent company. It's almost quite literally "buying stock".

Why? Because Neve itself produces wealth. And, it's products, have a unique life cycle: forever. You don't "use it up" or innovate away the Neve 1073. It stands the test of time like art, yet it performs a function, as well. A function that adds value / productivity.

In some ways a Neve 1073 is like a commerical property in Manhattan.

That is, Neve adds continuing value to the economy as a product in studios around the world. Unlike this year's wheat or soybean harvest. So, it isn't entirely speculative in that sense.

There is no certainty, correct.

Risk has a return! And that's the entire point of speculation.

In a capitalist economy, RISK takers can be rewarded quite handsomely, whereas, the risk averse simply suffer ENVY and JEALOUSY. Lol

Last edited by Deleted User; 9th July 2017 at 06:37 PM..
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Old 9th July 2017
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trashman View Post
I don't see Neve scaling up, therefore, Neve 1073, like BAE 1073 et al. will continue to rise in cost and price.

I don't believe they would pass cost savings on anyway - it would hurt the brand.
"Investing" in anything that's still being made is dumb, IMO. Unless, of course, you have inside info that something's about to be discontinued for good. If I'd known Yamaha was gonna permanently run out of NS10 woofers I'd have headed straight to Crazy Eddie's with a truck.
Old 9th July 2017
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkSky Media View Post
Or acquire your own personal ex-ABC guy (and maybe put him on a salary to go pawn shop hunting full time).
I think it's even too late for ex ABC guys to find stuff!
He had a bunch of other stuff that was well gone before I met him.
For instance 4x RCA 77DX's that he claimed he lent to some guy to record a big band but never saw them again and a U47 that he said was lost in a flood in NSW in the early 1980's.

I read somewhere that just after the Soviet Union collapsed a couple of enterprising guys went over there and visited many of the formerly state run radio and TV stations and bought up a lot of gear cheap or even traded vodka etc for it.

If anyone has a link to this story please feel free to post it.
Old 9th July 2017
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rowmat View Post
I read somewhere that just after the Soviet Union collapsed a couple of enterprising guys went over there and visited many of the formerly state run radio and TV stations and bought up a lot of gear cheap or even traded vodka etc for it.
In 1994 or so, some Russian guys showed up in LA with a huge load of mics and other stuff that had been "liberated" when a church that had been turned into a Melodiya studio got turned back into a church again. They also had a huge load of religious icons -- probably had extra room in the truck and figured the church folk wouldn't miss 'em.

I know it was around that specific time because they were squatting in a huge, red-tagged McMansion in Chatsworth that had basically broken in half in the big '94 quake and was about to fall off the cliff.

That was an interesting afternoon.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #47
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Originally Posted by crille_mannen View Post
Really? From what i remember like 8 years ago i saw adds for u67 for like 4k-ish $. I don't Think anyone thought they would be paying 18k för a u47 10 years ago. Only time Will tell so maybe we all be fools in 15 years or told that we made bargins buying a u67 for 10k
I don't think anyone is paying $18k for a U47 today. When I was first aware of things like U47s people were regularly selling them for 10-12K . Lately I see them listed for around $8.5K. I remember seeing a Fairchild 670 on ebay back in the day that sold for $30k (+?). More recently I saw one on ebay that failed to sell with a $20k price.

I'm not watching like a hawk, because I don't have the bread for such things.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brent Hahn View Post
In 1994 or so, some Russian guys showed up in LA with a huge load of mics and other stuff that had been "liberated" when a church that had been turned into a Melodiya studio got turned back into a church again. They also had a huge load of religious icons -- probably had extra room in the truck and figured the church folk wouldn't miss 'em.

I know it was around that specific time because they were squatting in a huge, red-tagged McMansion in Chatsworth that had basically broken in half in the big '94 quake and was about to fall off the cliff.

That was an interesting afternoon.
Interesting.
I'm trying to remember where I read about these two guys going to Russia but it read like a road trip. They visited various radio and TV stations finding many were off the air and some had been looted or in one case the former staff were playing cards and drinking vodka all packing guns. I think they got themselves into some sticky situations looking for gear as there were a lot of pretty desperate and hungry Russians back then.
Old 9th July 2017
  #49
just to cheer you all up, I'm predicting a massive recession before the end of this year, even worse than 2008, to think the economy is stable is absolute pure insanity.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #50
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Originally Posted by pencilextremist View Post
just to cheer you all up, I'm predicting a massive recession before the end of this year, even worse than 2008, to think the economy is stable is absolute pure insanity.
So it has to be happening now? We're in Q3 right now. A recession is 2 quarters of declining GDP.

Perhaps. The Fed is raising rates.

Unemployment is low, however.

We'll know more in October.
Old 9th July 2017
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pencilextremist View Post
just to cheer you all up, I'm predicting a massive recession before the end of this year, even worse than 2008, to think the economy is stable is absolute pure insanity.
In other words we should all sell our vintage gear right away and buy gold and cans of baked beans?
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Old 9th July 2017
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rowmat View Post
In other words we should all sell our vintage gear right away and buy gold and cans of baked beans?
\

Nope. Ammo!!! Ammo will become the new gold standard.
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Old 9th July 2017
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drBill View Post
\

Nope. Ammo!!! Ammo will become the new gold standard.
I admit I forgot to mention shotguns and a concrete bunker!
Old 9th July 2017
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pencilextremist View Post
just to cheer you all up, I'm predicting a massive recession before the end of this year, even worse than 2008, to think the economy is stable is absolute pure insanity.
Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want but the next engineered GFC (aka wealth transfer to the top) will likely be blamed on cyberhacking by Russia, North Korea, Syria or Iran etc.

Wall Street and the banksters will want to shift the blame as although they got away with it last time Occupy Wall Street 2.0 will be very ugly indeed.
Old 10th July 2017
  #55
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Originally Posted by rowmat View Post
I admit I forgot to mention shotguns and a concrete bunker!
Up here, we'll just be less polite to our neighbour and won't apologize. That'll teach 'em to stay away while we're having a crisis.
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Old 10th July 2017
  #56
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Originally Posted by drBill View Post
In 1999, the NASDAQ had been going nuts for several years. Pundits told me it could NOT go down. I invested. I lost a LOT of money.

In 2007, Real Estate in the US had been on a record run. People told me that there was only so much real estate, and that it could never go down. I invested in a couple of properties. I lost a lot of money. 10 years later, I still have a long ways to go to break even.

In 2017, vintage gear has been on a tear for over a decade. People tell me it can't go down in value. Now I laugh at that.


1st rule of investing - buy low sell high. It's not buy high, sell higher. That's a Las Vegas gamble. And that's where the vintage market is now. Cloners and plugin developers are getting soooo good. I prefer the hardware, and in may cases, it's as good or better than vintage at 1/3 the price new, with a warranty. At some point the tear will tip the other direction. It could be a single piece of gear that does it. Or another recession. Either way, vintage is a gamble.

If you're buying in 2017, Vintage is a gamble - not an investment. If you've got the money and like to gamble, go for it.
Folks, we have a winner!!!
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Old 10th July 2017
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pencilextremist View Post
just to cheer you all up, I'm predicting a massive recession before the end of this year, even worse than 2008, to think the economy is stable is absolute pure insanity.
We digress from the original thread but is it not interesting that brick-and-mortar stores are closing at an exceeding rate? The answer, they tell us, is e-commerce, but the numbers don't lie: internet sales are only 8.9 % of total retail sales. Doesn't make sense.
Old 10th July 2017
  #58
Gear Head
Quote:
Originally Posted by drBill View Post
\

Nope. Ammo!!! Ammo will become the new gold standard.
Cryptocurrency seems to be the winner. Central Bank can't reign it in.
Old 10th July 2017
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drBill View Post
\

Nope. Ammo!!! Ammo will become the new gold standard.
Interesting. You'll have everyone trading their gold shekels for lead bullets.

Kind of a reversal of the defining myth of alchemy...
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Old 10th July 2017
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanT View Post
We digress from the original thread but is it not interesting that brick-and-mortar stores are closing at an exceeding rate? The answer, they tell us, is e-commerce, but the numbers don't lie: internet sales are only 8.9 % of total retail sales. Doesn't make sense.
That may say more about the inadequacy and incompleteness of available measures of total online sales (which take place via a vast number of channels distributed worldwide, such that no one aggregator can secure reliable and complete data).

Last edited by DarkSky Media; 10th July 2017 at 01:29 PM..
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