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Corona Virus / SARS / nCoV2019
Old 5 days ago
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Stone View Post
Not sure what you want to tell by this?
It basically says that meat may still be traded even if there is an outbreak in an area? Or maybe I got it wrong.

Either way, just to clarify some (fake) news, SARS CoV 2 doesn't directly stem from bats, they say it's likely it originated in pangolin.

Also, in Germany an everyday dish is raw beef and raw pork... seems more dangerous than thoroughly cooked endangered wild life to me.
But thats just a guess, not sure if that is true.

EDIT: I prefer raw pork to cooked bat at any rate
Old 5 days ago
  #122
Gear Guru
 
Karloff70's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
Not sure what you want to tell by this?
It basically says that meat may still be traded even if there is an outbreak in an area? Or maybe I got it wrong.

Either way, just to clarify some (fake) news, SARS CoV 2 doesn't directly stem from bats, they say it's likely it originated in pangolin.

Also, in Germany an everyday dish is raw beef and raw pork... seems more dangerous than thoroughly cooked endangered wild life to me.
But thats just a guess, not sure if that is true.

EDIT: I prefer raw pork to cooked bat at any rate
Unless Pangolin are versed in pshuttle gene splicing, that's pretty unlikely.
Old 5 days ago
  #123
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shht - we dont want this thread to be closed...

Rationally, it's possible that it stems from pangolin regarding what we know at the moment.

Also rationally, if you were in a global chess game and wanted to destroy your main opponent - nuclear is not an option. You will get nuked back.

Flying with big planes over your opponents country and spraying it with pathogens isn't an option either - you will get nuked back.

But designing a virus that looks natural, and using a double cross parallel construction that makes it appear as if the opponent had an accident in one of his labs, is indeed an option.
And there are, of course, people on this planet in positions who think exactly along such lines.

But I am not saying this is the case here.

As I said earlier, I dont think that reasoning like this will help much in the situation.
It might even get in the way.
Old 5 days ago
  #124
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
shht - we dont want this thread to be closed...

Rationally, it's possible that it stems from pangolin regarding what we know at the moment.

Also rationally, if you were in a global chess game and wanted to destroy your main opponent - nuclear is not an option. You will get nuked back.

Flying with big planes over your opponents country and spraying it with pathogens isn't an option either - you will get nuked back.

But designing a virus that looks natural, and using a double cross parallel construction that makes it appear as if the opponent had an accident in one of his labs, is indeed an option.
And there are, of course, people on this planet in positions who think exactly along such lines.

But I am not saying this is the case here.

As I said earlier, I dont think that reasoning like this will help much in the situation.
It might even get in the way.
Well, indeed, this thing is a great tool for agendas. All manner of things can be pulled scapegoating this thing. Totally agree on that.

We'll have to disagree on the pangolin and pshuttle skills though.
Old 5 days ago
  #125
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I just realized that the double cross article on WP is lengthy but maybe isn't the best.

What it was about is psychological warfare, makeing the Germans believe the opposite of what was going on.
With astonishingly simple means.
Similar to stage magicians.

Like they made them sucessfully believe that the invasion would be on the shores of Italy, instead of Normandy, etc.
EDIT: they made them believe that any info they gathered about Normandy was falsified.
Old 5 days ago
  #126
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The Russians have delevoped a similar tactic in recent years, with is to flood the news with so much nonsens that you don't know what to believe.
For this reason, when this clashes with British psyop, it's impossible to tell what is going on, for instance in the Litvenienko and Skripal cases.

Like in the Litvenienko case there were several different planes on different routes with traces of Polonium reported, while when you store it properly, you can not trace it at all.

This was just a fog of nonsense added by someone. Similar stuff happened in the Skripal case.

And I think we will never know for sure in this case either, so it's kind of futile to speculate about it at the moment, I think.
Old 4 days ago
  #127
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spaceman's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
shht - we dont want this thread to be closed...

Rationally, it's possible that it stems from pangolin regarding what we know at the moment.

Also rationally, if you were in a global chess game and wanted to destroy your main opponent - nuclear is not an option. You will get nuked back.

Flying with big planes over your opponents country and spraying it with pathogens isn't an option either - you will get nuked back.

But designing a virus that looks natural, and using a double cross parallel construction that makes it appear as if the opponent had an accident in one of his labs, is indeed an option.
And there are, of course, people on this planet in positions who think exactly along such lines.

But I am not saying this is the case here.

As I said earlier, I dont think that reasoning like this will help much in the situation.
It might even get in the way.
They would also be the dumbest vilains in the history of conspiracies. When you want to attack an opponent, you better make sure the «bomb» you’re inplementing doesn’t come back and blow in your face like a boomerang. Viruses travel. If country X places a virus in country Y , and didn’t think that the virus could actually travel back to country X and end up killing their own population and destroying their own economy , then they really are the dumbest villains in history.
Old 4 days ago
  #128
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absolutely.
But still this hasn't prevented several powers to research this field and develop strains suitable for weaponizing.
Both viral and bakteria.
There also had been accidents in the past, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak

EDIT see also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marburg_virus etc etc

Last edited by memristor; 4 days ago at 01:36 AM..
Old 4 days ago
  #129
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same for nuclear war btw.
There had been strong proponents for all out nuclear war who took into consideration that their own country gets hit back.
And there still are, don't make a mistake about that.
Old 4 days ago
  #130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaceman View Post
They would also be the dumbest vilains in the history of conspiracies. When you want to attack an opponent, you better make sure the «bomb» you’re inplementing doesn’t come back and blow in your face like a boomerang. Viruses travel. If country X places a virus in country Y , and didn’t think that the virus could actually travel back to country X and end up killing their own population and destroying their own economy , then they really are the dumbest villains in history.
That's assuming the battle fronts are to do with countries. Which they never really were, ever. That's all bloody illusion and sacrificing the poor as cannon fodder, traditionally.
Old 4 days ago
  #131
China's economy falling off a cliff! (And with that, the global economy.)
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...proaching-zero

10.000 people in Vietnam under quarantaine
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/18...er-coronavirus

Last edited by Reptil; 4 days ago at 11:02 AM..
Old 4 days ago
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karloff70 View Post
That's assuming the battle fronts are to do with countries. Which they never really were, ever. That's all bloody illusion and sacrificing the poor as cannon fodder, traditionally.
Cannon fodder in the case of «*traditional*» warfare , yes. But with viruses, things are a bit more unpredictable because the weapon is a living thing, that can decide on a different direction than what you initially planned for it....
Old 4 days ago
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spaceman View Post
Cannon fodder in the case of «*traditional*» warfare , yes. But with viruses, things are a bit more unpredictable because the weapon is a living thing, that can decide on a different direction than what you initially planned for it....
My main point was country borders are not necessarily the marks of 'who against who' here....nor were they ever. But sure, this thing will not respect borders much. lol
Old 4 days ago
  #134
Lives for gear
1. The epidemiologists worldwide are working on a correct and proportional response...as more data comes in about mortality rates, and within which regions/age groups these are clustered. Seems to be in 60+ year olds with compromised immune systems ...not unlike typical annual flu patterns, in fact.
Not at all like Spanish Flu of 1918....

2. Don't eat pangolins.

3. In the event of enforced quarantining of populations in your country by government regulations, have the phone number of your Uber-Eats and supermarket home delivery service handy. You will not starve.

4. The biggest danger to public health from this sort of disease are the selfish, unthinking and misguided fellow citizens of your/any town and city... who insist on going to work, using public transport and gather in public places and worksites...despite being ill !!

The irresponsible manufacturers of cold and flu symptomatic decongestant lozenges and throat sprays etc are the main propagators of the belief that it's fine to go to work and school, despite being a vector for respiratory/influenza diseases, via droplet transmission.

With an informed and socially responsible population, self-quarantining measures alone should be sufficient to curtail spread ...but these advertisers undermine such commonsense action
Old 4 days ago
  #135
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Do you believe pangolins are the source? What exactly makes you believe that? You might want to question whatever sources you got that from.
Old 4 days ago
  #136
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memristor's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by studer58 View Post
3. In the event of enforced quarantining of populations in your country by government regulations, have the phone number of your Uber-Eats and supermarket home delivery service handy. You will not starve.
cause delivery folks are never quarantained.
and they never get ill.

over 1,700 health workers are infected https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...s-and-116-more

EDIT: btw the median age of those hospitalized in an early study was 49
The median age in Germany is 46...
So this might affect a lot of people

But I admit that comparing it to the spanish flu is not too useful
(especially since one study by the Imperial College estimated the CFR in Wuhan at 18%.. lets hope they are wrong)

The problem is we dont have enough certain data.
So we have figures for the CFR between 0.2 and 18%.

Often quoted in the media here (but always without source) are 2%. That means one in 50.
Means everyone will know a couple of persons who might die.
Especially if you are in the risk age group. Like me...
Old 4 days ago
  #137
Lives for gear
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karloff70 View Post
Do you believe pangolins are the source? What exactly makes you believe that? You might want to question whatever sources you got that from.
Pangolin was last week's hot favourite as "Creature Most Likely...." , now being questioned. The week before that it was bats. Throw the previous mass outbreak suspects of domesticated animals into the ring (pigs, chickens, ducks) as well as wild birds in the case of avian flu, and you have a tangled transmission mechanism of mutation opportunities for any virus...possibly involving several successive species, before it invades human lungs

It's irrelevant, largely because the next one will likely have a different source yet again...and knowing does little to give insight into vaccine development. In Africa Ebola virus is thought to have bush-meat (ie primate) origins.

When the principle path of dispersion becomes human to human, as we quickly had with all of these respiratory ailments, the primary source recedes in importance....it's a moving target anyway

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/s...ronavirus.html
Old 4 days ago
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
cause delivery folks are never quarantained.
and they never get ill.

over 1,700 health workers are infected https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...s-and-116-more

..............................
Often quoted in the media here (but always without source) are 2%. That means one in 50.
Means everyone will know a couple of persons who might die.
Especially if you are in the risk age group. Like me...
Might be time to ramp up those driverless, robotic delivery cars and vans....certainly could be put to immediate use ! Or similarly, delivery drones...

If you are truly worried, consider self-quarantine for a sensible period of time...including steps to ensure an independent food supply for 10-14 days...at least as a positive and proactive personal response.

Epidemic and pandemic likelihood increases, as climate change forces insect, animal and human populations closer together in previously atypical combinations. Darwinian forces will prevail: the strong will survive, the phylogenetically-senile will recede or disappear
Old 4 days ago
  #139
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right, although according to evolution it's not the strong but those who fit...
Old 4 days ago
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
right, although according to evolution it's not the strong but those who fit...
Yes, and hence the sudden interest in harvesting and analyzing the blood of those who have had the virus and survived...since they will likely be a source of antibodies which have successfully fought it off, and allowed the host to live ! "That which does not kill me makes me stronger"
Old 4 days ago
  #141
Gear Guru
 
Karloff70's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by studer58 View Post
Pangolin was last week's hot favourite as "Creature Most Likely...." , now being questioned. The week before that it was bats. Throw the previous mass outbreak suspects of domesticated animals into the ring (pigs, chickens, ducks) as well as wild birds in the case of avian flu, and you have a tangled transmission mechanism of mutation opportunities for any virus...possibly involving several successive species, before it invades human lungs

It's irrelevant, largely because the next one will likely have a different source yet again...and knowing does little to give insight into vaccine development. In Africa Ebola virus is thought to have bush-meat (ie primate) origins.

When the principle path of dispersion becomes human to human, as we quickly had with all of these respiratory ailments, the primary source recedes in importance....it's a moving target anyway

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/s...ronavirus.html
Oh, I am very aware of those stories, but my question was what makes you believe them?
Old 4 days ago
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karloff70 View Post
Oh, I am very aware of those stories, but my question was what makes you believe them?
I’m not him, but I’ll answer you back with a question : do you believe that the earth is round rather than flat, and if so why ?
Old 4 days ago
  #143
Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
Not sure what you want to tell by this?
It basically says that meat may still be traded even if there is an outbreak in an area? Or maybe I got it wrong....
The Terrestrial Animal Health Code applies to humans (as a species of animal).

UK media citing the scientist leading coronavirus research Prof. Neil Ferguson of The School of Public Health, Imperial College, London: estimated 50-60% of Britons may contract COVID-19 with possible 1% fatality rate: anywhere from thousands to 400,000 deaths (upper limit) possible.

In these type of circumstances the Code acts as guidline/legislation to treat, control and prevent the disease.

Not wanting to alarm anyone but I've been studying epidemiology (mainly flu pandemics) whilst training as a scientist BSc and Neil Ferguson seems pretty legit: he's allowing for the worst-case scenario as a sensible precaution and for responsible public information.

Everyone can improve their chances by following simple personal health protocols.
Old 4 days ago
  #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Stone View Post
Neil Ferguson of The School of Public Health, Imperial College, London: estimated 50-60% of Britons may contract COVID-19 with possible 1% fatality rate
What I wonder with this is, the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at the Imperial College London estimated the fatality rate to be much higher in Hubei, the difference to other places mostly due to lack of medical capacities in Hubei.

With 50-60% of the population its clear that capacities to treat all critical conditions are not there.

So, does that mean he expects a fatality rate of 1% when the disease is not treated? Or with treatment?

I've seen excerpts of interviews with him, but this question wasn't answered in the parts I've seen.
Old 4 days ago
  #145
Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
What I wonder with this is, the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at the Imperial College London estimated the fatality rate to be much higher in Hubei, the difference to other places mostly due to lack of medical capacities in Hubei.

With 50-60% of the population its clear that capacities to treat all critical conditions are not there.

So, does that mean he expects a fatality rate of 1% when the disease is not treated? Or with treatment?

I've seen excerpts of interviews with him, but this question wasn't answered in the parts I've seen.
Following the original research, it seems that prioritising limited intensive-care resources will be an issue: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/1952...al-scientists/

Zero Hedge and Taiwan Times citing doctors who note high secondary infection-rate with heart complications (which compounds the stress on resources treating primary infections).
Old 4 days ago
  #146
Gear Guru
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthur Stone View Post

Zero Hedge and Taiwan Times citing doctors who note high secondary infection-rate with heart complications (which compounds the stress on resources treating primary infections).
Yup, sounds nasty. Second go causing heart attacks and organ failures by way of cyto storms.....not. nice. This thing is NOT the flu, that's for sure.....
Old 4 days ago
  #147
Gear Guru
 
Karloff70's Avatar
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by spaceman View Post
I’m not him, but I’ll answer you back with a question : do you believe that the earth is round rather than flat, and if so why ?
I think we all basically take information only from sources that we for whatever reason trust to be correct. I was mostly curious about his reasons why he trusts those sources, talking nonsense about pangolins.

As far as round or flat, I'll go for round based on my preference of sources.
Old 4 days ago
  #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karloff70 View Post
I think we all basically take information only from sources that we for whatever reason trust to be correct. I was mostly curious about his reasons why he trusts those sources, talking nonsense about pangolins.

As far as round or flat, I'll go for round based on my preference of sources.
What's your source for thinking that the pangolin association is baseless....do you have a dislike of that particular animal, or are you dismissing animal genesis as a model in general ?

Accepting any news agency report as credible implies an assumption they have been diligent in fact-checking before publication...which may not be warranted, depending on the information source.

Today's news reports of an 80 year old dying from the disease as first European fatality suggest that spread and danger are not at a high level outside Hubei/Wuhan.

The WHO is concerned however, claiming not enough is yet known, and that China is considering it an internal matter and not sharing information freely enough to facilitate international planning and response.
Old 3 days ago
  #149
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Don't know why it suggest that to you.

In Europe, we are apparently where China was by end of November, or beginning of December,
the difference being that we are more aware and keep better track of some(!) of the asymptomatic and mild cases.

At this point there is no reason to believe that basic parameters (infection rate, lethality rate*, incubation period, rate of people who need ICU)
are different outside of Wuhan, what is different outside of Hubei are medical capacities.

If we hadn't been aware beforehand, the french case would have been classiefied as unknown viral or influenza case.
No one would even know that a new viral pneumonal disease is going round at this point.

*EDIT: if not treated

EDIT2: in Wuhan, they had a special program going on that helped to detect new viral pneumonal infections
thats how they discovered a pattern and a novel virus early on - we don't have that in Europe, and we don't have enough cases yet for such a thing to be triggered.
We would know nothing at this point.
Old 3 days ago
  #150
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