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Facts only 2019nCov - scientific studies - no discussion
Old 2nd February 2020
  #1
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Facts only 2019nCov - scientific studies - no discussion

No discussion, please, facts only.
Please no conspiracy theories, nor apeasement articles from the press/media

only original scientific papers, or original footage,

Early scientific papers

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.20018952v1


updated registered cases, (probably wrong numbers now)

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/

https://early-alert.maps.arcgis.com/...c90b1ae0fa7b78
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


original footage

will probably follow - search for your self - warning


other Info

updated WHO Situation Reports
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

Last edited by memristor; 2nd February 2020 at 01:41 PM..
Old 2nd February 2020
  #2
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Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...260-9/fulltext
Old 5th February 2020
  #3
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https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30251-81

Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding
https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930251-8

Last edited by memristor; 6th February 2020 at 12:10 PM..
Old 7th February 2020
  #4
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February 7, 2020, JAMA
Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2761044
Old 10th February 2020
  #5
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Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...10-02-2020.pdf
Old 4 weeks ago
  #6
"Gain-of-Function" research on the Corona virus.
2010 "Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) proteins of different bat species confer variable susceptibility to SARS-CoV entry"
https://www.researchgate.net/publica...SARS-CoV_entry
2015 "A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence"
https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
2020 "The spike glycoprotein of the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV contains a furin-like cleavage site absent in CoV of the same clade"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...66354220300528
(this confirms the research from the indian paper, which was retracted late januari)

Last edited by Reptil; 4 weeks ago at 08:07 PM..
Old 4 weeks ago
  #7
Lives for snowflakes
 
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Facts only?

I happened onto this (from studylib.net):
Coronavirus 2019-nCoV Global Cases
(looks like its updated daily.)
Old 2 weeks ago
  #8
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Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection

The Lancet 12 March 2020

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...7NmuQZWeNwuirE

A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.6
These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.
Old 2 weeks ago
  #9
Tui
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Between October 2019 and March 2020 an estimated 22,000 – 55,000 people have been killed by the regular flu:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

No countries were shut down, no patients quarantined.
Old 1 week ago
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tui View Post
Between October 2019 and March 2020 an estimated 22,000 – 55,000 people have been killed by the regular flu:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

No countries were shut down, no patients quarantined.
Yes, but deaths in the millions from COVID-19 could likely occur in the US without significant social distancing because unlike flu, everyone is susceptible, 2/3 of the spread is from asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic individuals http://https://science.sciencemag.or...e.abb3221.full,
there is only supportive treatment and the healthcare system would quickly become overwhelmed
and many deaths would like occur from shortage of ventilators, etc.
Italy is cuurently in this overload situation with case fatality rate of approximately 7%.
Bill H. MD

Last edited by Folkie; 1 week ago at 02:43 AM.. Reason: add reference
Old 1 week ago
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tui View Post
Between October 2019 and March 2020 an estimated 22,000 – 55,000 people have been killed by the regular flu:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

No countries were shut down, no patients quarantined.
Feel free to tell yourself whatever will make you feel better.

This is how I respond to superstitious people who require unreality to cope with things.

No skin off my nose.

Best of luck!
Old 1 week ago
  #12
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Influenza report for Germany, Feb. 28th 2020

https://influenza.rki.de/Wochenberic...20/2020-09.pdf (German)

(TL;DR: 202 confirmed deaths for the whole season as of 28th Feb., population 82.79 million)
Old 1 week ago
  #13
EuroMOMO aims to enhance the European capacity to assess and manage serious public health risks such as pandemic influenza and other emerging infections, as well as environmental conditions with an impact on public health, e.g. heat waves or cold snaps. These figures are from European countries listed below the graphs.
Note that ALL kinds of infections are measured, but it is interesting to watch the trend. For now, it is falling down steeply in the last 6 weeks.

http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
Old 1 week ago
  #14
Gear Maniac
World status by country live stream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw
Old 1 week ago
  #15
Coronavirus COVID-19 Mapping

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.

Real Time Mapping System for Coronavirus COVID-19:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
Old 1 week ago
  #16
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Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China

13 Mar, 2020

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17453/v1
Old 1 week ago
  #17
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I am not saying that this is "gospel" or anything;

It is however a non-editorial report about a real study:
NewsWeek - Risk of Getting COVID-19 Could Be Linked to Certain Blood Types
Old 1 week ago
  #18
Japan has a promising drug they are testing is reducing the Covid19 virus duration in the body from 12 to 4 days. It is being developed by Fujifilm brand https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rus-says-china
Old 1 week ago
  #19
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UK policy: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups...id-19-response
Old 1 week ago
  #20
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Computing Actual Cases from Death Count.

Due to limited resources and testing the reported or confirmed cases (in any area but especially the US) are well below the actual number of infections. This paper and video explain how to compute estimated actual cases based on the number of deaths in a given area (country, city, region, etc.).

Source Research:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

Math Explained:


Note: This example uses slightly different assumption then the CDC resulting in a higher number as follows:
This example....Actual Cases = Deaths x 1600
CDC................Actual Cases = Deaths x 800
Old 1 week ago
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Folkie View Post
Yes, but deaths in the millions from COVID-19 could likely occur in the US without significant social distancing because unlike flu, everyone is susceptible, 2/3 of the spread is from asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic individuals http://https://science.sciencemag.or...e.abb3221.full,
there is only supportive treatment and the healthcare system would quickly become overwhelmed
and many deaths would like occur from shortage of ventilators, etc.
Italy is cuurently in this overload situation with case fatality rate of approximately 7%.
Bill H. MD
I posted this in another thread but it applies here, too. sorry if this is seen as a discussion but there are some links to studies also.

people who get killed by covid 19 because of preexisting conditions or weak immune system cannot get killed by the flu anymore and vice versa. btw vaccination against the flu, didn´t reduce the cases with flu nor the death rate by the flu, in fact both numbers have gone up in the last years. 2017/18 was the worst influenza season in 30 years with 25,100 influenza deaths in germany alone. https://edoc.rki.de/bitstream/handle...=1&isAllowed=y )

every year, between 290,000 and 645,000 people worldwide are estimated to die from respiratory diseases due to influenza infection, according to the latest estimate by an international network of researchers led by the US Food and Drug Administration (CDC). these are significantly more flu-related deaths than previously assumed. previously, an excess mortality rate of 250,000 to 500,000 per year was assumed.

(https://www.pharmazeutische-zeitung....r-als-gedacht/)

the point is, that it´s not at all sure that we will see higher death rates in general because of covid 19.
you should read to the end of the artile below (if you cannot read german then use this: https://www.deepl.com/de/translator it´s a bit of a hazzle to copy and paste passages in order to translate but it´s better than to translate with google, of course you can also translate with google more conveniantly, I think you will still be able to understand what he´s saying)

Hendrik Streek is a specialist in virology and infectious disease epidemiology and fighting the virus at the forefront in one of germanys hardest hit areas.

VIROLOGE HENDRIK STREECK:
„Wir haben neue Symptome entdeckt“

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellsc...-16681450.html
Old 1 week ago
  #22
< Moderator message @ mastermat - Please seperate the discussion about the Flu from the Covid-19 situation, unless directly relevant. Thank you. >
Old 1 week ago
  #23
Some possibilities eliminated, but they still don't know where this came from.
Quote:
"While the analyses above suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may bind human ACE2 with high affinity, computational analyses predict that the interaction is not ideal and that the RBD sequence is different from those shown in SARS-CoV to be optimal for receptor binding”
Quote:
“However, the genetic data irrefutably show that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Old 1 week ago
  #24
Old 1 week ago
  #25
Breakthrough: Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus is spreading rapidly, and scientists are endeavoring to discover drugs for its efficacious treatment in China. Chloroquine phosphate, an old drug for treatment of malaria, is shown to have apparent efficacy and acceptable safety against COVID-19 associated pneumonia in multicenter clinical trials conducted in China. The drug is recommended to be included in the next version of the Guidelines for the Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Pneumonia Caused by COVID-19 issued by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19 infection in larger populations in the future.

I'm not certain but it is my understanding that Chloroquinine is a synthetic form of quinine.
Old 1 week ago
  #26
Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/h...ng-people.html

New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.

American adults of all ages — not just those in their 70s, 80s and 90s — are being seriously sickened by the coronavirus, according to a report on nearly 2,500 of the first recorded cases in the United States.

The report, issued Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that — as in other countries — the oldest patients had the greatest likelihood of dying and of being hospitalized. But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.

“I think everyone should be paying attention to this,” said Stephen S. Morse, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health. “It’s not just going to be the elderly. There will be people age 20 and up. They do have to be careful, even if they think that they’re young and healthy.”

The findings served to underscore an appeal issued Wednesday at a White House briefing by Dr. Deborah Birx, a physician and State Department official who is a leader of the administration’s coronavirus task force. Citing similar reports of young adults in Italy and in France being hospitalized and needing intensive care, Dr. Birx implored the millennial generation to stop socializing in groups and to take care to protect themselves and others.

“You have the potential then to spread it to someone who does have a condition that none of us knew about, and cause them to have a disastrous outcome,” Dr. Birx said, addressing young people.

In the C.D.C. report, 20 percent of the hospitalized patients and 12 percent of the intensive care patients were between the ages of 20 and 44, basically spanning the millennial generation.

“Younger people may feel more confident about their ability to withstand a virus like this,” said Dr. Christopher Carlsten, head of respiratory medicine at the University of British Columbia. But, he said, “if that many younger people are being hospitalized, that means that there are a lot of young people in the community that are walking around with the infection.”

The new data represents a preliminary look at the first significant wave of cases in the United States that does not include people who returned to the country from Wuhan, China, or from Japan, the authors reported. Between Feb. 12 and March 16, there were 4,226 such cases reported to the C.D.C., the study says.

The ages were reported for 2,449 of those patients, the C.D.C. said, and of those, 6 percent were 85 and older, and 25 percent were between 65 and 84. Twenty-nine percent were aged 20 to 44.

The age groups of 55 to 64 and 45 to 54 each included 18 percent of the total. Only 5 percent of cases were diagnosed in people 19 and younger.

The report included no information about whether patients of any age had underlying risk factors, such as a chronic illness or a compromised immune system. So, it is impossible to determine whether the younger patients who were hospitalized were more susceptible to serious infection than most others in their age group.

But experts said that even if younger people in the report were medical outliers, the fact that they were taking up hospital beds and space in intensive care units was significant.

And these more serious cases represent the leading edge of how the pandemic is rapidly unfolding in the United States, showing that adults of all ages are susceptible and should be concerned about protecting their own health, and not transmitting the virus to others.

The youngest age group, people 19 and under, accounted for less than 1 percent of the hospitalizations, and none of the I.C.U. admissions or deaths. This dovetails with data from other countries so far. This week, however, the largest study to date of pediatric cases in China found that a small segment of very young children may need hospitalization for very serious symptoms, and that one 14-year-old boy in China died from the virus.

Of the 44 people whose deaths were recorded in the report, 15 were age 85 or older and 20 were between the ages of 65 to 84. There were nine deaths among adults age 20 to 64, the report said.

Some of the patients in the study are still sick, the authors noted, so the results of their cases are unclear. Data was missing for a number of the cases, “which likely resulted in an underestimation of the outcomes,” the authors wrote. Because of the missing data, the authors presented percentages of hospitalizations, I.C.U. admissions and deaths as a range. The report also says that the limited testing available in the United States so far makes this report only an early snapshot of the crisis.

Still, the authors wrote, “these preliminary data also demonstrate that severe illness leading to hospitalization, including I.C.U. admission and death, can occur in adults of any age with Covid-19.”
Old 4 days ago
  #27
Tui
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"As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-con...us-of-covid-19

I was made aware of this fact by:

< deleted by moderator - politics >


The UK government knows this virus is relatively harmless. The mainstream media is still not reporting on it. This, too, is not an opinion, but fact.

Last edited by Reptil; 2 days ago at 08:00 PM.. Reason: -
Old 3 days ago
  #28
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The mainstream media is not reporting "relatively harmless" because that is absolutely not a "fact" .
It is in fact , a subjective opinion and nothing more , and delisting from the High Consequence category, while recommending it continue to have a "national coordinated response" does not support such an opinion . Given no change in the UK policy for handling the outbreak not much for the media to actually report.

Now here are some actual "Facts"


Last edited by KevWind; 3 days ago at 07:03 PM..
Old 3 days ago
  #29
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Here lets use some facts to put this in perspective

Just today in 6 hours the US almost doubled its New Cases from 7894 to 14955. More than the total # cases, in the UK

From the chart I posted this morning updated @ aprox 14:00 hours above to::::
Now @ 20 :20 hours

Old 3 days ago
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robert82 View Post
I was not aware that infowars was considered a "source".
In point of fact : being a source is one thing, being credible is a completely different thing. Out of context and cherrypicked omission of pertinent facts is the specialty of some "sources".

For example :
In fact: the UK did delist Covid 19 from HCID status. But what that does is simply change the organizational protocol for who is handling it. (THATS IT) With HCID status all cases must be transferred to those few hospitals (2 primary and 2 secondary) that are already set up to handle them. But now that UK has in place a national protocol for handling Covid 19, all hospitals can treat cases . It is not some imaginary delisting of how serious the disease is, that's just Infowars wishful thinking .

Last edited by KevWind; 2 days ago at 02:11 AM..
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