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Corona Virus / SARS / nCoV2019
Old 29th January 2020
  #1
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Corona Virus / SARS / nCoV2019

are you worried?
Depends on where you are living I guess.

Have to admit that I am kind of worried, with media and government here (Germany) kind of understating the risks, even making some false statements, I guess to avoid panic, but in parts also because they have no clue:
For instance local gov. advised to go to the hospital in case you have symptoms and a reasonable suspicion - while hospitals said you should *not* do that but stay at home to avoid contaminations, and call the ambulance.

Admittedly, panic is also a severe risk, so I dont want to contribute to that with this post. Rather increase awareness.

The reason for my worries is that I have a damaged lung, and I am always vaccinated against flu for this reason.

Now some say that the epedemia is expected to peak in a couple of days, but I am quite sceptical about that. I do hope this will turn out to be true.
What I assume, however, is that what they are actually thinking is that within the next 10 days we will see if it's becoming pandemic or not.

Theres not too much you can do, however, just the routine hygiene.
But I am already avoiding rides in the subway etc, and assume I will do so for the next 10-15 days.

What else can you do?
And, do you feel well informed?
Do I worry too much?
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Old 29th January 2020
  #2
Wash hands thoroughly before leaving your home and upon return. Buy some N95 masks as a prevention measure.
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Old 30th January 2020
  #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synth Guru View Post
Buy some N95 masks as a prevention measure.
It seems these are already out of stock in some places
Will try to get some tomorrow
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Old 30th January 2020
  #4
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I expect the WHO to declare a state of global emergency later today.



I think the situation is much worse than what was communicated the past days.

There are so many contradicitions and holes in the story that don't match the narrativ.

Like the vast number of personel China has reportedly allocated and the number of patients reported, plus the under-the-radar reports and photos of totally exhausted health workers, sleeping in there safety suits.

I think all they are trying to do now is avoid panic and chaos, and stock market crashes.

I hope I am wrong.
It's really difficult to determin whats going on.
There are also apparent fake news on social media.
Old 30th January 2020
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
It seems these are already out of stock in some places
Will try to get some tomorrow
Well, they are out of stock everywhere. Amazing. Drugstores can't even order them at the moment.
Old 30th January 2020
  #6
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you do worry too much (and no, the information to the public is neither misleading nor wrong but adequat) - ring up your doctor before you panic!
Old 30th January 2020
  #7
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I appreciate your comment.
Maybe I worry a bit too much, I hope so. But I live in a big city with suspected cases.

And its a fact that the local government here had given misleading (and dangerous) information.
The media also, like they reported the WHO sees a low risk, when they already corrected that as high risk.
Especially for Germany, Japan, and some other countries.

Couple of years ago I had the meazles, my lungs were better then, but it was severe, was hospitalized in isolation and wouldnt have made it otherwise, without care.
And it didnt affect the lungs directly.

I doubt I would make it through nCoV since it directly affects the lungs, and a less functional liver is also a risk factor, as well as being male and 50+.
- I've read the latest findings that were published in The Lancet etc.

We already know that it has a very long latency period, and we know that it is infectious during that period.
So I might already be infected.. and spread it... no one can know.
In other words, we have to wait another 10-14 days to see how bad it can get.

BTW I doubt that locals here have shopped out the masks. The population here in my part of the city is generally dumb and uninformed,, and doesnt care much about anything.
I've never seen anybody with a mask on the streets here ever.

Also, during swine flu outbreak German goverment and army got a different vaccination than the normal population - its a fact.
Was reported in mainstream media back then.

So, without spreading rumours or panic, I think the situation is severe.
Old 30th January 2020
  #8
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you're right that the 'tamiflu-disaster' was pretty much hilarious!

i live in a smaller city but we're having 'erste verdachtsmomente' here too.

let's meet for a beer when things have settled down...
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Old 30th January 2020
  #9
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According to the findings published in the Lancet, mortality rate is 11%.
So all the comparisons with the flu (typical mortality rate 0.1%) in the media are nonsens.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...211-7/fulltext

And latest news from Deutsche Welle correspondent William Young is, that Chinese figures might be doctored.
And that there are allgedly undocumented dead bodies cremated https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12304547

I assume the NZHerald is kind of a reputable source.
Old 30th January 2020
  #10
I wouldn't freak out too much yet. Take a look a the standard Flu morbidity rate and compare it to the Corona. Sure, it's spreading, but it's still well below the numbers of the standard Influenza virus.
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Old 30th January 2020
  #11
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Thats unfortunately not really a reasonable approach.

See the Lancet and all the official figures.

Morbidity was 11% in the first 99 cases. And that did not change much since, given the published numbers.

Thats not the case for the average flu at all. Also it seems to be way more contagious than the flu.
The virus survives 4 days outside of organisms. Thats not the case with the flu either.

And, at least in Berlin there are not enough hospital beds at all, far from it - you need air locked rooms and all that stuff
There are not many beds like this. Like 20 in the central hospital.

When I was isolated with the meazles I wasnt in an air locked room, just a seperate room but of course everyone always dressed in special suits and all that.
But you cant compare this to what is required here. Already two doctors are reported to be infected or dead, respectively.
Those were people well aware of the risks.
Old 30th January 2020
  #12
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Media has this misconception that it calcualtes morbidity by dividing the number of confirmed cases by the number of deaths.

Thats not the actual figure, since, unfortunately, some of these confirmed cases will inevitably die as well.

You can only do this naive calculation when everything is over.

So to calculate the true rate to day, you have to use different numbers. And that gives about 11%.
And that is a very high figure.
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Old 30th January 2020
  #13
We'll have to see what ensues in the following weeks. I'll be watchin' the news closely.
Old 30th January 2020
  #14
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Sure.
Good news is, that today the increase in newly confirmed cases seems to have declined.

Bad news is, however, that Chinese government had threatened doctors with consequences if the situation doesn't improve.
So we can't trust the reports and numbers from China much, if we ever could.

Another bad news is a first person to person infection in the US reported:
https://abc13.com/who-to-decide-whet...gency/5891628/

WHO is meeting since 5 1/2 hours now. Still no result - I assume it's a mere political vs medical thing in the background.

Cause medically its crystal clear that it is an emergency until this desease is contained.
Old 30th January 2020
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
I expect the WHO to declare a state of global emergency later today.
Has anyone seen the press conference?

There must have been a lot of pressure behind the scenes.

Also several kotaus towards China, but I dont think China is the problem here.
Rather countries like Germany.

Between the lines, they recommend drastic measures and "strong leadership" like in China, but superficially they explicitely do not recommend travel and trade restrictions.

There are some contradictions there, also regarding bringing citizens home from the danger zone, which was explained to be hazardous between the lines.

I was hoping for stronger recommendations.

It seems they can only follow with a lag of two weeks, and that could turn out to be a tragedy. But its better than nothing.

Now, where can I get a mask?

Are you prepared? Do you have masks?
Old 30th January 2020
  #16
The WHO (World Health Organization) has declared a Global Health Emergency for Novel Coronavirus.

Yikes!
Old 30th January 2020
  #17
Quote:
Originally Posted by memristor View Post
Has anyone seen the press conference?

There must have been a lot of pressure behind the scenes.

Also several kotaus towards China, but I dont think China is the problem here.
Rather countries like Germany.

Between the lines, they recommend drastic measures and "strong leadership" like in China, but superficially they explicitely do not recommend travel and trade restrictions.

There are some contradictions there, also regarding bringing citizens home from the danger zone, which was explained to be hazardous between the lines.

I was hoping for stronger recommendations.

It seems they can only follow with a lag of two weeks, and that could turn out to be a tragedy. But its better than nothing.

Now, where can I get a mask?

Are you prepared? Do you have masks?
You can still find some on Amazon. Grab em' while they're hot!

I ordered a box just in case.

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=n95+mask&ref=nb_sb_noss_1
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Old 31st January 2020
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuldLangSine View Post
The fatality rate is 2.33 %.
Please, dont spread misinformation and fake news.

There are scientific papers who calculate it properly, written by people who directly deal with the matter.
I've linked to one of them published in the most renowned Lancet above.

WHO and media are simply misleading here, and you help no one by repeating that nonsens.

213 have died. 9189 are confirmed to be infected. So, 2.3 % of these have died.

Unfortunately, most likely more of them will die, even if there were no new infections.

So mortality is > 2.3.
How much larger?
For this, you need to go back to the time and numbers when those who died got infected.
How many days I dont know, it depends on how quickly people die.

And it turns out, mortality is AFAIK between 5% and 14%, from the first 99 cases it was 11%.
This is scientific state of knowledge so far AFAIK, but the numbers still keep changing.
Will will only know exactly once its over.

At any rate, for seasonal flu its usually 0.1 to 0.01%. Just for comparison.
Old 31st January 2020
  #19
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A more recent paper from the New England Journal of Medicine

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

Infections double in 7.5 days (5.3-19) R0 is 2.2 (1.4 - 3.9)

EDIT: for SARS R0 was 3, so theres a chance it could be contained by strict isolation.

But SARS didnt spread that much as nCoV already did.
Old 31st January 2020
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuldLangSine View Post
The fatality rate is 2.33 %.
I'm sure it's the elderly who are taking a beating from it, I really don't think the younger people should freak out.
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Old 31st January 2020
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synth Guru View Post
The WHO (World Health Organization) has declared a Global Health Emergency for Novel Coronavirus.

Yikes!
I don't get a flu shot. The viruses tend to mutate quickly before they get a valid inoculation. I don't panic during flu season. This one has my attention. This one seems a bit different. I won't be going to the upcoming Tucson Gem and Mineral show.
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Old 31st January 2020
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GYMusic View Post
I don't get a flu shot. The viruses tend to mutate quickly before they get a valid inoculation. I don't panic during flu season. This one has my attention. This one seems a bit different. I won't be going to the upcoming Tucson Gem and Mineral show.
Hahahaha... That's a joke right? I mean statistically you're more likely to get killed by a drunk driver on the way home...
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Old 31st January 2020
  #23
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can't stand this musing about fake news, things going on behind the scenes, government not reacting adequately etc.!

of course any actions by a large group of states need to get synced to some degree - the who, being at the mercy of the united nations, cannot just push forward on its own, a state of emergency is a political decision which facilitates taking certain measures, to enforce specific laws, to enable extraordinary means etc.

these measures will have to be different in different places/countries: no western societies can get locked down on order or we'll have a civil war! i'd be fighting for my right to get killed by the flew as well!

keep cool, read more than your favourite newspaper, learn about the inner mechanics of politics, international organizations, learnt to weight information from different sources, don't spread panic!
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Old 31st January 2020
  #24
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I am spreading awareness... I hope.

See it's like it ever was:
one guy says - dont get to close to this mammoth, they are dangerous.
The other guy laughs and says - I got this spear, gonna kill it.
So, he tries, but gets trampelt down. Mammoth is wounded, dies also.
Warning guy and rest of tribe get the meat.

Evolutionary, thats how it works and thats why there are both types of persons.

About the risk of being driven over by a car, thats certainly much higher at the moment.
But this can change if we aren't aware and take countermeasures.
Old 31st January 2020
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuldLangSine View Post
It looks like you didn't read this study. Instead, you just threw up a URL.

"Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases.

Is it surprising that an elderly person with a chronic illness would die from the flu?

• The elderly and those with chronic health conditions should take precautions.

• The likelihood of everyone else surviving an infection of this virus is nearly 100%.
True, but this chronic deseases are not necessarily severe deseases.

The figures I was given are correct.

EDIT And your last statement is wrong. I think only 150 ? have recovered so far, 150 from over 9000.
Old 31st January 2020
  #26
Quote:
Originally Posted by GYMusic View Post
I don't get a flu shot. The viruses tend to mutate quickly before they get a valid inoculation. I don't panic during flu season. This one has my attention. This one seems a bit different. I won't be going to the upcoming Tucson Gem and Mineral show.
It was 5 years since my last flu shot. I got it this year and within 7-10 days, the Corona outbreak began. Sure, it probably won't be effective against it, but for anything else I should be set.
Old 31st January 2020
  #27
Oh yeah, I also ordered some N95 masks. Prices will sky rocket in the near future. Greedy people are already scalping at over $300 for one box!

To make my masks last, I also ordered a cloth cover to protect the masks so I can re-use them. The cloth masks are similar to what people use when mowing the lawn.
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Old 31st January 2020
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuldLangSine View Post
Nothing you have written is correct.

You're twisting facts.

Sure.. go ahead... PANIC ! ! !
I have to go to bed now, but if you could point out which specific fact I got wrong please state it clearly, so I can follow. Thanks.
The mortality of the flue in Bejing with the elder population is news to me though,
have to read that paper tomorrow. Its certainly not the figures valid for general population here.

Why did you bring masks to China btw? Whats the benefit for whom and why?
Old 31st January 2020
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synth Guru View Post
Oh yeah, I also ordered some N95 masks. Prices will sky rocket in the near future. Greedy people are already scalping at over $300 for one box!

To make my masks last, I also ordered a cloth cover to protect the masks so I can re-use them. The cloth masks are similar to what people use when mowing the lawn.


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Old 31st January 2020
  #30
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noisewagon View Post

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