Where are we on the S Curve?

[jimmyboy7]

OK, with the way technology has changed the music industry I think its safe to say that Map's and Plug In's have created "disruptive technology" that i n turn has created the possibility for disruptive innovation. Specifically, in the recording industry. For those of you interested here is a Wiki link Disruptive technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For those in the know already, where do you think we are in the S curve? 5-10 years out from plug in domination? If so, what kind of long term business strategies are you using to ensure you will be producing and engineering in the new industry? I am easing because I am pondering all of this myself and I am trying to re-vamp my business model for the near and distant future. Any insight is appreciated

[The Byre]

That depends on what you are doing!

If you are a studio, you have to concentrate your efforts on those things that will always have to remain outside of the infamous box. Most importantly, the room and real instruments within that room. That means having a nice live room, filled with a good piano, Hammond, Rhodes, Wurley, good back-line and first class microphones and pre-amps.

You might also look at mobile recording, which requires a great deal more know-how than studio work.

Anything that depends on the ownership of expensive hardware is doomed to failure, because it just a question of time (and not much time at that!) before the complete, touch-screen, virtual desk and a whole bank of virtual effects can be placed in a control room and look as if you are sitting at the real thing. The Icon already does that, but using real bits of metal and plastic and other boxes (e.g. Duality) are hybrids of real hardware and the virtual world of zeros and ones.

The next generation will just be large screens on stands.

So, just as has happened elsewhere (photography, design, film) the artistic abilities and knowledge of the operator will be more important. In ten years time, nobody will pay anything for a DAW or effects, but will shell out for a brilliant people.

[jimmyboy7]

Originally Posted by The Byre

That depends on what you are doing!

If you are a studio, you have to concentrate your efforts on those things that will always have to remain outside of the infamous box. Most importantly, the room and real instruments within that room. That means having a nice live room, filled with a good piano, Hammond, Rhodes, Wurley, good back-line and first class microphones and pre-amps.

You might also look at mobile recording, which requires a great deal more know-how than studio work.

Anything that depends on the ownership of expensive hardware is doomed to failure, because it just a question of time (and not much time at that!) before the complete, touch-screen, virtual desk and a whole bank of virtual effects can be placed in a control room and look as if you are sitting at the real thing. The Icon already does that, but using real bits of metal and plastic and other boxes (e.g. Duality) are hybrids of real hardware and the virtual world of zeros and ones.

The next generation will just be large screens on stands.

So, just as has happened elsewhere (photography, design, film) the artistic abilities and knowledge of the operator will be more important. In ten years time, nobody will pay anything for a DAW or effects, but will shell out for a brilliant people.

Thanks!!! I was thinking the same thing as far as what I am doing, investing in my own education and I turned my house into a studio. I actually have an excellent sounding living room due to the 18 foot vaulted ceilings. And I have some excellent mic's and pre's . I also am producing so I think I'll be ok. What do you think of the role of engineer/producing/mastering merging? I ask because more clients want me to do all of these tasks where they use to be separate.

[drBill]

Originally Posted by The Byre

So, just as has happened elsewhere (photography, design, film) the artistic abilities and knowledge of the operator will be more important. In ten years time, nobody will pay anything for a DAW or effects, but will shell out for a brilliant people.

\

I agree with this.....but you're a decade late. I haven't charged for studio time in almost 10 years. MY time only. Whether in my studio or at another.

[jimmyboy7]

Originally Posted by drBill

\

I agree with this.....but you're a decade late. I haven't charged for studio time in almost 10 years. MY time only. Whether in my studio or at another.

So would you say that most engineers are taking this approach? I feel the same way, so on an S curve would you say this approach has reached saturation and now the standard studio model will slowly shrink until all engineers will operate at home and/or virtually?

[drBill]

Originally Posted by jimmyboy7

So would you say that most engineers are taking this approach? I feel the same way, so on an S curve would you say this approach has reached saturation and now the standard studio model will slowly shrink until all engineers will operate at home and/or virtually?

First, I don't really know what an "S Curve" is, and don't really care cause I don't have time to learn what it is. But I would say MOST engineers are NOT taking this approach. Only because most engineers are young, and have not had a chance to amass a bunch of credits to warrant that approach. That's why they are all in a RACE to the bottom. $50, no now $25, oops! pretty soon $15, then $10 per hour. Pretty soon, less than an average fast food worker. (If you doubt it, check Craigs List and you'll see it.) It's not that I'm anything special, but I've been doing it for 20+ years and have a lot of clients & projects I've worked on that have received a bit of success.

We live in a economy of supply and demand. The supply (thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of studio's in my town - LA) has FAR outstripped the demand, and therefore, charging for studio time is a loosing proposition. You've got to have something SPECIAL to charge for when people will give it away for free (happening all over - even PAYING for clients to come in is not unusual). A building, location, or other draw. Mine is my experience. Even trust-fund-studio owners cannot buy that. There is only a few ways to get it - time, luck and a lot of hard work. I have a killer studio. I'm guessing it's better than 99% of "home studio's" out there. But no one will pay for it by itself. That paradigm is dead or at best dying.

S curve or no, the studio "business" is screwed. At least from a businessman's viewpoint. It is stratifying into mega, mega studio's, and bedrooms with very little legit rooms in the middle.

[jimmyboy7]

Originally Posted by drBill

First, I don't really know what an "S Curve" is, and don't really care cause I don't have time to learn what it is. But I would say MOST engineers are NOT taking this approach. Only because most engineers are young, and have not had a chance to amass a bunch of credits to warrant that approach. That's why they are all in a RACE to the bottom. $50, no now $25, oops! pretty soon $15, then $10 per hour. Pretty soon, less than an average fast food worker. (If you doubt it, check Craigs List and you'll see it.) It's not that I'm anything special, but I've been doing it for 20+ years and have a lot of clients & projects I've worked on that have received a bit of success.

We live in a economy of supply and demand. The supply (thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of studio's in my town - LA) has FAR outstripped the demand, and therefore, charging for studio time is a loosing proposition. You've got to have something SPECIAL to charge for when people will give it away for free (happening all over - even PAYING for clients to come in is not unusual). A building, location, or other draw. Mine is my experience. Even trust-fund-studio owners cannot buy that. There is only a few ways to get it - time, luck and a lot of hard work. I have a killer studio. I'm guessing it's better than 99% of "home studio's" out there. But no one will pay for it by itself. That paradigm is dead or at best dying.

S curve or no, the studio "business" is screwed. At least from a businessman's viewpoint. It is stratifying into mega, mega studio's, and bedrooms with very little legit rooms in the middle.

Thanks, I am with you on this as well, I'm 46, I have excellent gear but more than anything, I have experience. I would even say Im lucky to have been born at a time that allowed me to experience studios that were cometely analog and also to have grown up in the computer age.

For this reason I think the other silver bullet (besides experience and skill) is psychology. I think that the more I understand people, the better the experience is for the artist.

[oldeanalogueguy]

Originally Posted by jimmyboy7

OK, with the way technology has changed the music industry I think its safe to say that Map's and Plug In's have created "disruptive technology" that i n turn has created the possibility for disruptive innovation. Specifically, in the recording industry. For those of you interested here is a Wiki link Disruptive technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For those in the know already, where do you think we are in the S curve? 5-10 years out from plug in domination? If so, what kind of long term business strategies are you using to ensure you will be producing and engineering in the new industry? I am easing because I am pondering all of this myself and I am trying to re-vamp my business model for the near and distant future. Any insight is appreciated

we are at the top of the S curve for most everything

the world is headed towards a major depression, widespread starvation, war, disease, famine, plus all the natural disasters we cant repair after every country goes broke.

buy gold coins
stockpile guns, ammo, food, water, medicine, soap, toilet paper, etc.

[jimmyboy7]

Originally Posted by oldeanalogueguy

we are at the top of the S curve for most everything

the world is headed towards a major depression, widespread starvation, war, disease, famine, plus all the natural disasters we cant repair after every country goes broke.

buy gold coins
stockpile guns, ammo, food, water, medicine, soap, toilet paper, etc.

Yikes!!!!! I guess that means plug ins will be worthless!!!

[oldeanalogueguy]

Originally Posted by jimmyboy7

Yikes!!!!! I guess that means plug ins will be worthless!!!

all plug ins will be worthless in time -
my 8" disks got tossed
my 5" floppies got tossed
still hanging onto the diskettes for a while
and cdroms and dvds for now
tossed the zips and superdisk and others
hope my usb outboard disks last a long time

the only question is how much time do we have before civilisation collapses

[The Byre]

Originally Posted by oldeanalogueguy

the only question is how much time do we have before civilisation collapses

Putting my economist's hat on, there was a time when I would have laughed at that thought or question and and put that down to so much hysterical media hype and exaggeration, but I have spent some considerable time looking at the figures and in particular, at the inter-bank lending figures.

If the various politicians continue to squabble over who is at fault and do not totally recapitalise pretty much all the banks of the World, the fall of civilisation in its present form becomes a real possibility.

The World's banks are financing their inter-bank loans in ever-shorter contracts and if Merkel & Co do not allow Greece to exit the Euro gracefully and insist on stumbling from one crisis to another, then total collapse of the Greek economy is really imminent - and when that happens, Italy will follow.

If Italy falls into chaos, Spain and Portugal will be next and several banks in France and Germany will fail completely and nobody knows where the domino effect will lead.

Money is leaving Greece today - in fact it is pouring out! Not a day goes by, without major new accounts being set up with the private banks in Switzerland and Luxembourg by some Greek investment company or individual.

We all know what we have to do - president of the World Bank Robert Zoellick put it in a nutshell last week -

"Unless Europe, Japan and the United States face up to their responsibilities, they will drag down, not only themselves, but the entire global economy."

[narcoman]

Originally Posted by The Byre

So, just as has happened elsewhere (photography, design, film) the artistic abilities and knowledge of the operator will be more important. In ten years time, nobody will pay anything for a DAW or effects, but will shell out for a brilliant people.

Isn't that already the case? I don't know anyone employed on projects because of what they own.

[The Byre]

No, I meant the value of the box. Nobody will pay anything for a DAW or an effect box or even a mixer. Maybe for vintage stuff, but even then, not very much!

In today's money, a Hammond cost (back in 1961) about £1,300 - about the same price as a small house. You can still pick them up for that kind of money and that is one of the boxes that has held its value!

[jimmyboy7]

Originally Posted by The Byre

Putting my economist's hat on, there was a time when I would have laughed at that thought or question and and put that down to so much hysterical media hype and exaggeration, but I have spent some considerable time looking at the figures and in particular, at the inter-bank lending figures.

If the various politicians continue to squabble over who is at fault and do not totally recapitalise pretty much all the banks of the World, the fall of civilisation in its present form becomes a real possibility.

The World's banks are financing their inter-bank loans in ever-shorter contracts and if Merkel & Co do not allow Greece to exit the Euro gracefully and insist on stumbling from one crisis to another, then total collapse of the Greek economy is really imminent - and when that happens, Italy will follow.

If Italy falls into chaos, Spain and Portugal will be next and several banks in France and Germany will fail completely and nobody knows where the domino effect will lead.

Money is leaving Greece today - in fact it is pouring out! Not a day goes by, without major new accounts being set up with the private banks in Switzerland and Luxembourg by some Greek investment company or individual.

We all know what we have to do - president of the World Bank Robert Zoellick put it in a nutshell last week -

"Unless Europe, Japan and the United States face up to their responsibilities, they will drag down, not only themselves, but the entire global economy."

That is disturbing, my thought was that central banking and the built in debt creation it brings is the main culprit. As far as the U.S. Taking responsibility.... There will be no progress on any of thus until after the next election. I'm nit trying to be partisan but the Republican party gas decided they would rather see the collapse of our economy than make any concessions. Just an observation , I don't support either party, they both prop up the 1% at the expense of everyone else

[SonicAlchemist]

As the technology makes it easier for people to achieve results they find pleasing, and cheaper to get in the game, studios will struggle unless they understand a principle I best understand through chess: when a piece moves, yes, it threatens new squares and can cause you new problems. . but it WAS doing something before, on its old square, and now it is not. what did it give up?

in this case, quite a bit. I am coming from this as a composer who is seeing sample libraries like Symphobia make it possible for people who don't know the first thing about the orchestra to have some advanced orchestration done for them through the software. on the surface it is frustrating and threatening.

However here is the other side of it: newer generations will have a harder time getting as good at the fundamentals, which will make the skill set of being able to truly understand writing at the granular level, with real instruments, that much rarer and more valuable.

second, it has been my opinion for some time that one of the fundamental determining factors for who becomes a professional and who stays an amateur is the threshold for when something sounds good enough to stop working. right now, i am extremely picky and hear things to keep tweaking that i would not have heard when i was first starting out. it is essential to develop an ear and a taste level that is sufficiently demanding to raise that threshold of satisfaction as high as you can.

getting a decent sounding recording with little money and little effort makes it much more difficult to develop the chops needed to establish a high threshold.

this is the trade-off, and as long as we are really good at what we do, and know our crafts inside and out, I expect this revolution will increase our value in the market through scarcity.

In this case, the chess move that scares us gives up a lot in exchange for the new threat it makes.