Money & Music CD Future...

[Roger Starr]

Following the ever evolving digitalization of our lives and the evolving decrease of CD sales and the expenses of gear available for music productions one could ask wheater it is still profitable to invest in serious studio equipment for recording music productions. A friend of mine sold just 200 CD's to become number 2 best selling CD in Paris biggest records store with one of the managers stating that within 10 years for sure no money at all is made with selling CD's. Actually, they're already on the verge of getting the whole store down and replacing most of it to sellings books. The whole record business is living through difficult times for sure. Does this trend make artists who do not tour incomeless with their CD productions? Will it be worthwile to remain investing in expensive equipment if in the end almost no CD are sold anyway and only the very big ones will still make some with that? So much gear and so little ROI...!?

Will the CD format dissapear? Will the art form of it dissapear and will the youth be much more comfortable with (illegal) downloads using only own compilations on their mp3 players. Artwork of CD covers etc. all past time? The income for artists will be only in touring and commercials? What will replace the CD? Etc., etc., etc... Visions and views...?

Regards,

Roger

[kieran kelly]

I think as a small studio owner. the future is production. Bands will still need music to attract fans. And those who can provide that to their artists will still get hired. I would NOT want to be a Large studio or Major Label at this time. its going to be very different game very soon. Just my two cents. As far as the CD goes it will become less and Less of the major way in which music is listened to. My guess in the same % as the LP is now. Small but probably a high rez version of what we have today..

[Barish]

According to a survey that I've read in one of those music consumer magazines (possibly Q mag), today's 30-somethings will be the last buyers of CD. Those below that will not be the loyal customers to that technology at all.

The majority of the audience today are quite content with a lower audio quality as offered by mp3/mp4 technology, and most of them are not in a position to tell the difference in between, as most of the sound reproduction equipment they use to listen to music offers an FM radio quality or below. The sound quality achieved in the studio will never reflect to their listening environments anyhow (I'm excluding audiophile community from this equation here for obvious reasons).

However it wouldn't be quite correct to juxtapose the tendency toward buying expensive audio gear to the changes in consumer preferences/technological changes/market changes etc. The cost of achieving certain sounds is still the same, regardless of the format in which they are presented to the final consumer. Also there is the satisfaction the musicmakers themselves expect to get from their work regardless of what their audience is prepared to settle with so that cost will always be there, and real.

B.

[kieran kelly]

good points ... I Agree on all of them.

[Barish]

This is a cycle between sonic quality and convenience. The consumer preferences will always fluctuate in between these points. Once reached to a saturation point on one side, the public will start moving toward the other point.

It would be logical to say that the consumer today has reached to the saturation point in the audio quality the CD offers (in comparison to what mp3/mp4 offers) so the majority is moving toward a more convenient way of listening to music, albeit a compromised one sonicwise.

At some point in the course, they will reach to a saturation point in terms of convenience, as the convenience will not get any better beyond the equilibrium point, so they will move toward the better sounding offerings (within the current format of the day) again. And by then the mp3/mp4 technology will be outdated and another even more convenient technology will come up and so on...

That's how I see it in a bigger picture, as far as my goggles allow me to see.

B.

[1320 P.]

I think in a few years (2 or 3 maybe) that we will be exchanging higher quality files through the internet. Probably better than CD, and probably faster than downloading MP3's right now. Imagine, you go to (insert I tunes here) and download a .wav file of the song you bought at the sample rate it was recorded at, NO DITHER and can listen to it almost instanltly. I assume they would also offer other formats as well. It may seem like a stretch, but in 2000, so did working with PT at any major studio, 2"was king, that was 6 years ago............. Technology, especially computer technology is moving faster than any of us could imagine.

[pan60]

even if CD's go away their will inevitably be a way to sale one's music.
i think VD sale's are lacking because it is a less convenient form of listening to music when on the move, and it is a lesser form of entertainment when compared to many movies.
so when you are at home you watch tv.
lesser none musicians that are very very good no longer have the avenue once available for promoting their music that leave the pop music to get seem more easily.
their was a time when band's hit circuits playing smaller clubs ( as well as large ) and had followings, people went to the clubs to see the various band's, as opposed to the action packed movies that did not exists as they do today.
these venues are no ware near what they were.

[kats]

It's a two-fold question.

First, are studios still a viable service? Definately, just changing. I'm thinking about printing companies and how technology through them a wildcard. What happened? Instead of the consumer going with DYU technology, they stuck with the printing companies BUT recieved a much higher quality product for the same price as the old technology. IE 5 color doesn't cost anymore than two color printing. The only loss to printing companies were the micky mouse jobs. The technology made it more affordable for the consumer to use the service and it ended up increasing volumes - albiet for a lower price.

Studios - same thing. We can give better quality at lower prices, making it more affordable for the consumer who beforehand, couldn't even be in the market. The loss will be for mickey mouse jobs - IE cheap demos etc. As the tools become cheaper, the need for skill and talent become more important if your to compete. Sounds like a good hing to me.

Secondly, will music sales collapse and will the need for hi quality studios dissapear? I don't think so. MP3's? Short term fashion. All the tech companies want to make money and grow. Once they take this Mp3 thing to the point of diminishing returns, they'll push a new format with new hardware to take advantage of the "new standard" of quality. It's around the corner.

The music industry itself is sort of "revolving". That is, at one time touring was a loss leader to sell albums, and now albums are loss leaders to sell wickedly high priced concert tickets - or at least somewhere in between. Regardless, you need a recording for a video - and you need to be "known" to sell concert tickets. The business model is almost the same, it's just flip flopping on where the revenue comes from.

As far as record labels are concerned, the higher the signal to noise ration in the market, the bigger the need for marketing. So if labels are in trouble, it's their lack of ability that's killing them - not the market. I mean if CD revenues are dropping, and concert profits are increasing - it's just a simple matter of how you split the pie with the acts. Change it, so everyone makes a decent amount of money no matter how the market swings.

[pan60]

Originally Posted by kats

if labels are in trouble, it's their lack of ability that's killing them - not the market.

[mtstudi@pacbell]

Originally Posted by 1320 P.

I think in a few years (2 or 3 maybe) that we will be exchanging higher quality files through the internet. Probably better than CD, and probably faster than downloading MP3's right now. Imagine, you go to (insert I tunes here) and download a .wav file of the song you bought at the sample rate it was recorded at, NO DITHER and can listen to it almost instanltly.

IMO for that to happen, fiber optics are going to need to be implemented directly into every household, copper wiring eliminated all together, no remote stations.

www.bluethumbproductions.com

[not_so_new]

To one degree or another I agree with all the points in this thread and that Barish makes except this....

Originally Posted by Barish

The majority of the audience today are quite content with a lower audio quality as offered by mp3/mp4 technology, and most of them are not in a position to tell the difference in between, as most of the sound reproduction equipment they use to listen to music offers an FM radio quality or below. The sound quality achieved in the studio will never reflect to their listening environments anyhow (I'm excluding audiophile community from this equation here for obvious reasons).

Yes MP3's can sound like trash but to say that "the sound quality achieved in the studio will never reflect to their listening environments anyhow" is a little outrageous.

People keep making these claims and I don't agree with it.

If the above were true then you are saying that you can't tell the difference between the production on The Beatle's Abbey Road and Tool's 10,000 Days. I am not saying that the Tool CD sounds better or worse or anything I am just saying that, yes even with an MP3, I can tell the difference in the production styles and techniques used on each (and I love them both).

Don't blame the MP3 for shitty production, over compressed mastering and bad studio techniques. It's not the fault of the MP3 that many modern productions sound like crap.

To say that good production does not matter anyway because the end listener can't tell the difference is a cop out. It does and they can.

Sorry, I calls it like I sees it.

[Roger Starr]

The quality of sound is not the issue at all since the new generation of music consumers don't think much like that, mp3 is more than good enough. The issue is that CD's are almost not sold anymore to 30 less and that the perception of the CD as an art package is deminishing for that generation. Music has become a fast consumer good, you quickly download, consume and delete if you don't like it anymore all that on your iPod or whatever player you have. Only diehard fans will buy CD's, the rest simply won't. Making CD's will become more and more, if not already, just a marketing thing for selling your shows where the money is to be earned. Money in music is in performing, publishing and commercials, not in selling CD's. For those who don't perform and just want to make nice albums, live will become hard. I think in concepts of an album as an artistic outlet, most kids don't have that at all, they just load a song they like and that's it...

Regards,

Roger

[Jazzpunk]

The only problem with these theories is that no one takes into account that there is nothing to motivate the public to pay for content that they can download for free. Illegal downloading or file sharing is not a fad that will go away. It will only get worse as connection speeds grow faster.

It's not just 'kids' either. At one of the studios where I freelance there is currently a drive with over 100G of music that is circulating (think about how many albums that is!). Everyone is so excited to drag and drop there new music library to their own computer. I have not heard one person besides myself object or pass on this huge amount of free content. These are grown adults that work in the entertainment business. There is a huge disconnect these days among consumers. People who think it's just a couple of college kids downloading music or some guys sharing mix CD's among friends need to wake up!

[garymusic]

As for investing in studio gear. For me, as a recording musician, I think I am in too deep to turn back. I have to lower to cost of production and recording at home is the only way to do that. For me it is about having fun and if the clock is always ticking at $50 an hour or more I don't have fun. Other guys have boats. I have studio gear and a couple of really nice Martins.

-Gary

[not_so_new]

Originally Posted by Jazzpunk

The only problem with these theories is that no one takes into account that there is nothing to motivate the public to pay for content that they can download for free. Illegal downloading or file sharing is not a fad that will go away. It will only get worse as connection speeds grow faster.

It's not just 'kids' either. At one of the studios where I freelance there is currently a drive with over 100G of music that is circulating (think about how many albums that is!). Everyone is so excited to drag and drop there new music library to their own computer. I have not heard one person besides myself object or pass on this huge amount of free content. These are grown adults that work in the entertainment business. There is a huge disconnect these days among consumers. People who think it's just a couple of college kids downloading music or some guys sharing mix CD's among friends need to wake up!

GREAT POINT!

[6strings]

Originally Posted by Roger Starr

Will the CD format dissapear?

Of course! Just as the 8-track and LP did...

Will the art form of it dissapear and will the youth be much more comfortable with (illegal) downloads using only own compilations on their mp3 players.

Probably won't matter to the P2P teen group... but in terms of audio quality Apple is already prepping for higher-quality downloads (as in lossless format) http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1834

Artwork of CD covers etc. all past time?

Already gone thanks to the CD format. (anyone owning old Iron Maiden albums will agree at least ) I think the webpage Flash intro is probably the "artwork" for the artist's album, from what I've seen (actually some pretty cool stuff)

The income for artists will be only in touring and commercials? What will replace the CD?

The P2P generation will grow up, get jobs, and actually pay for their music as most adults do nowadays.

http://news.com.com/Digital-music+sa...l?tag=nefd.top

[lefthando]

What I find odd is that labels and music industry folks are all talking about downward trends in sales and revenues.

But BMI, ASCAP and SOCAN are all bragging about record revenues each quarterly statement.

Some folks are still making money.

[Jazzpunk]

Originally Posted by 6strings

The P2P generation will grow up, get jobs, and actually pay for their music as most adults do nowadays.

I wish I could be as optimistic but I see nothing that points to this happening. The playing field has changed drastically. Adults not kids are now swapping 100G drives full of music not a few mix tapes or CDs.

The money for legal downloads will come from ethical consumers which is kind of like saying I am basing my future income on my new client base 'The Dinosaur'! I can count the amount of people I know on one hand who actually give a crap about what there money supports.

I would love to be wrong about this though. Unfortuneately, I am just responding based on what I see happening around me in the real world.

[synthoid]

Do you guys think that services like iTunes have a future? I hear some of you saying that young people will not pay for recorded music regardless of how it is delivered to them; but another interpretation is that we're really only experiencing another change of delivery format. I talked to a fellow from Apple about a year ago and I think he said that digital downloads accounted for something like 12% of revenues from sales of recordings, and the figure was growing rapidly year to year.

-synthoid

[Sounds Great]

Digital sales fuel record biz in first-half '06

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Physical album sales continued to decline in the U.S. during the first six months of 2006, down 4.2 percent in comparison to the same period last year.

However, Nielsen SoundScan figures indicate that digital sales might boost the business as a whole. Sales of digital albums soared 126 percent during the first half of the year, while digital tracks rose 77 percent.

[confooshus]

Originally Posted by Jazzpunk

I wish I could be as optimistic but I see nothing that points to this happening. The playing field has changed drastically. Adults not kids are now swapping 100G drives full of music not a few mix tapes or CDs.

The money for legal downloads will come from ethical consumers which is kind of like saying I am basing my future income on my new client base 'The Dinosaur'! I can count the amount of people I know on one hand who actually give a crap about what there money supports.

I would love to be wrong about this though. Unfortuneately, I am just responding based on what I see happening around me in the real world.

I don't think LA is representative of consumers in the rest of the US. This is pure speculation, but I can definitely imagine some elitist industry types thinking they're entitled to 100 gigs worth of music for free since they're "in the industry".

[joelpatterson]

Even so, someone got paid to produce these 100 gigs... unless it was all on spec or pro bono? Or done by the artists in their bedrooms?

So... what's the problem, exactly?

[confooshus]

I'm not sure if you understood my point.... I'm saying just because some guys in LA don't feel like they should have to pay for music, they don't represent the rest of the country. Obviously there is some of that mentality in today's youth, but I think it's more based on convenience and ignorance, rather than a sense of entitlement.

Back to the original post, I personally can't imagine how building a commercial studio in today's market could be profitable... Unless you're a successful producer and just want to keep more of the pie for yourself (nothing wrong with that...)

[RobR]

Like all things, it's a phase. Gear up...er, as in, be prepared. Things will change for the "much better" afterward.

Look at the internet's effect on television production. People are literally getting production deals out of their youtube contributions. Quality has been seeing a landslide, as in:

"Well, crap, if any geek off the street can do an equivelant job with his camcorder at home; well then, we should just decrease our budget, hire these kids, and make
money based on our budget savings".

After a while, someone will wake up and say:

"Oh geez, now I get it. We weren't putting anything forward thinking or mildly worthwhile on our network. We were just putting out crap. We opened the door to everyone else with a hundred dollar budget who showed us just how terrible our programming is. Lowering our standards further wasn't the answer; we should have answered the situation with higher quality programming. Gee whiz."

And, of course, the cycle will move to a more positive and happy era.

The same will occur with the music thing. Just wait. It will happen.

[joelpatterson]

Hmmm... probably if something's easy to get for free, people will take it. This may not be confined to "insiders" in L.A. and may be more a general sickness in the culture.

From my perspective, on the production side, big commerical facilities are like archaic Stalinist monuments. Nobody needs one anymore to do state-of-the-art audio. If anybody thinks they do, they're just blindly following some inertia from a previous age. You need a building with doors that close. You need electricity. You need a couple grand in gear.

I think the whole industry is going to a much smaller, "boutique" kind of orientation. There will always be people who want their concerts recorded. There will always be people who want a CD of this concert. But maybe this whole era of mega-stars and the vast, expensive hype that keeps it afloat is sinking. Maybe?

[6strings]

Originally Posted by Jazzpunk

I wish I could be as optimistic but I see nothing that points to this happening.

Follow my news link.

P2P will always be around in some form - and with it virii, poor encoding, malware, lawsuit potential, etc. Those who can afford the music are quite willing to pay legally for quality downloads and the numbers are now showing that is exactly what's happening.

Back to the original post, I personally can't imagine how building a commercial studio in today's market could be profitable... Unless you're a successful producer and just want to keep more of the pie for yourself (nothing wrong with that...)

I believe pre-production will be done "at home" while people will still go to commercial facilities for the pro gear (mics, preamps, etc), the studio space (good sounding rooms), and of course, the engineering talent.

[Jazzpunk]

Originally Posted by joelpatterson

Even so, someone got paid to produce these 100 gigs... unless it was all on spec or pro bono? Or done by the artists in their bedrooms?

So... what's the problem, exactly?

True or false: Success in this biz is (for the most part) measured in record sales?

People want to hire the guy who did 'that record' and typically, 'that record' sold quite a few units. The reality is that you are only as hot as your last project. Illegal downloading and file sharing on the level I mentioned hurts everyone in the industry not just the 'evil' record companies that people love to flip the bird too while stealing music.

Remember, while we are in the infancy of services like iTunes we are also in the infancy of P2P and the rapidly evolving technologies that support them. Kids who are downloading thousands of songs for free now are going to grow into adults who do the same thing. Adults who already do it are not going to suddenly grow a conscience unless of course a nice hefty fine comes their way to help them along.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong. There will always be a 'pie' just more people fighting over a smaller piece.