More Proof of Illegal Songs on IPODS

[JCM123]

Originally Posted by Lives For Fuzz

Size of the Average Music Library: 7,160 Songs - hypebot

very interesting...

Holly crap I've only got just over 1500 songs, all from cd's and itunes. A guys comment on there says that he has 57,000 songs and 90% is paid for, what the hell?! Must be a dentist or a lawyer. Surely theres some crap on there he never listens to...

[chrisso]

With the dollar song that's over $7,000.
Do we seriously think many under 30's have spent that kind of money?
Actually, with all the talk of 99c, I think they're hard to find.
Most of the stuff I would download from iTunes is in the $2 range, likewise the dance music I buy, usually well over $1.

[Jazzooo]

It's kind a silly assumption--the lion's share of music on my iPod was ripped from my CD collection. I'm fairly certain I'm not the only who had that idea

[John Eppstein]

Well, let's see.... if a person buys an average of 2 songs a day, every day that's 730 songs/year, so it would take just over 9.5 years. If they buy 4 per day that's 1460/year, so it would take about 4.8 years to fill the ipod. If they buy some albums or add stuff they ripped from an existing CD collection that could bring it down more.

So it's doable.

I wouldn't say it's likely in most cases, but it's doable for a hard core fan who can afford, say $5 or more a day. Which isn't really all that much. $5 is the cost of an average well drink in most bars in this city. Most kids spend more than that in one visit to McDonald's.

Which brings up a point I'm rather fond of making - legal music is CHEAP these days. When I was a kid we were overjoyed if we could get 1 new album a week.

[boon]

Originally Posted by Jazzooo

It's kind a silly assumption--the lion's share of music on my iPod was ripped from my CD collection. I'm fairly certain I'm not the only who had that idea

me too. my 60gb ipod is full of 320kb mp3's and i'd say 90% are from my CD collection. my itunes library is actually much bigger than that.. it won't all fit on my ipod.

it's not like people buy an ipod/mp3 player and then start downloading music.

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by psalad

T
Do you see why it's absolutely foolish to draw any conclusions about the size of the "average" itunes library?

You should take some time out to read the latest research from Terry's blog.
I doubt you will, like you didn't have time to watch and learn from Ari Emanuel.

[rack gear]

that's you, forever the exception... vs a sample of 1 million libraries.

[chrisso]

But 412 students, 1200 Canadians and a small group of German schoolkids visiting Canada on holiday are way more representative than 1 million music libraries stooopid. tutt

[JES]

Originally Posted by psalad

My library is something like 160 gigs worth... I think it's like 12000 songs. The great majority are either ripped from my CDs or purchased/downloaded legally. Of course that is over many many years.

Same here. I confess to also occasionally ripping friends' CDs or accepting mix CDs from friends, just like we used to tape each others' stuff. I do not feel bad at all.

[rack gear]

Originally Posted by psalad

Seems like everyone else other than two of the three blind mice see how misleading this is. That's OK.

uh huh... if everyone was paying for all the music on those ipods I doubt we'd be having this conversation.

Average Teen’s iPod Has $800 Of Pirated Music » Podcasting News

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/...cle4144585.ece

[rack gear]

and this guy is lying too, right?

Originally Posted by oudplayer
As far as legal vs illegal files on ipods...
I teach a large survey class every semester at a major public university. We've had about 1000 students go through this class, mostly freshmen, so I'm talking about a generation that was born after 1990. I conduct surveys about music consumption, and have found the following:

• 95+% of students listen to mp3s on mobile devices. Some have collections of dozens or hundreds of gigabytes of mp3s, mostly consisting of rock, hip hop, and country music, with regional indie music making up a significant 4th category

• only approximately 10% of students have ever purchased music through any online service such as iTunes

• only about 30% of students have actually ever physically touched any form of physical music media such as a CD or LP, and fewer still actually own any

These numbers are consistent from semester to semester - the only one that is declining is the percentage who have touched any form of physical music media.

So where is all of this music coming from? It's not from iTunes. It's not from CD rips. It's from rapidshare and torrents. 1000 college students born after 1990 is not enough to generalize on a national basis (but it does provide more statistics than most of the posters here), but I've seen plenty of other well-documented peer-reviewed studies that indicate similar percentages - that at best 10% of music stored on iPods owned by 18-24 olds is legitimately purchased.

[Neenja]

Now, the 64 million dollar question:
How much of that would they have paid for if they couldn't have downloaded it?

and the really big question:
How much music did they actually buy?

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by psalad

The truth is, everyone else sees that a self selected sample isn't representative.

Have a look in the mirror, you aren't learning from your huge 'scientific data' gaff.

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by Neenja

Now, the 64 million dollar question:
How much of that would they have paid for if they couldn't have downloaded it?

Probably not a lot of it.
I'm absolutely and utterly fine with that.
As a commercial musician I don't actually value someone's largely illegally procured music library.
I'd rather someone had 100 tunes bought and paid for, than 7,000 illegally downloaded.
The fact is, Apple have sold 220 million iPods (not counting iPhones and every other mp3 playing platform).
If a small amount of legally paid for music tracks had found their way on to those 220 million iPods, I doubt we'd even HAVE a piracy forum.

[Neenja]

Originally Posted by chrisso

Probably not a lot of it.
I'm absolutely and utterly fine with that.
As a commercial musician I don't actually value someone's largely illegally procured music library.
I'd rather someone had 100 tunes bought and paid for, than 7,000 illegally downloaded.
The fact is, Apple have sold 220 million iPods (not counting iPhones and every other mp3 playing platform).
If a small amount of legally paid for music tracks had found their way on to those 220 million iPods, I doubt we'd even HAVE a piracy forum.

My point is that if 95% of downloaded music is pirated, but people have 80x the music they would have bought, it starts to get really close to a wash at some point. Not to say that we shouldn't be trying to make it harder to find illegal files and prosecute people that people that profit from the sites.

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by psalad

The funny thing is, right up front, it's clear this is a very self selected sample.. did you miss that part? The sample is people who use "tidysongs"... which is a program useful if you have bad metadata in your music files.. which you would not need to buy for $40 if you actually paid for your music. If you paid for your music, your metadata is all good.

Do you see why it's absolutely foolish to draw any conclusions about the size of the "average" itunes library? This is NOT average, period.

Originally Posted by boon

me too. my 60gb ipod is full of 320kb mp3's and i'd say 90% are from my CD collection. my itunes library is actually much bigger than that.. it won't all fit on my ipod.

it's not like people buy an ipod/mp3 player and then start downloading music.

Originally Posted by chrisso

You should take some time out to read the latest research from Terry's blog.
I doubt you will, like you didn't have time to watch and learn from Ari Emanuel.

I don't really see any inherent conflict here.

Lots of people have huge legal music collections - as I pointed out it's really not that expensive, especially if you rip your own CDs.

Lots more people have huge illegal music collections. I know a number of them and they're not all kids.

It's the ones with the illegal collections who are the problem.

Not the ones with the legal collections.

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by psalad

Seems like everyone else other than two of the three blind mice see how misleading this is. That's OK.

Misleading?

That's data on ONE MILLION LIBRARIES filled with pirated material. That's misleading?

No, that's the tip of the iceberg, because the vast majority of those with pirated music don't bother getting their metadata sorted out.

P, pull your head out of the sand! Wake up and cough the smelly! It's daytime and the sun is shining in San Francisco (right now, for a change.....)!

All the SCIENTIFIC DATA shows that piracy is responsible for the drop in music sales.

There is no data to the contrary, merely excuses and conjectures.

Now, you can make conjectures and excuses all you want, but don't expect people to believe them and don't expect that you won't be refuted.

[rack gear]

Originally Posted by psalad

I don't know whether it's "lots more" or not, but most people I know with large illegal collections are kids. I know only one adult...

define "kid", define "adult"

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by psalad

I get it Chris. You can't bear to actually admit the obvious, that Mr. Fuzz has made a very misleading post, instead you need to try and change the subject and/or turn it into an attack on me.

The truth is, everyone else sees that a self selected sample isn't representative. Whether or not any other data presented in other threads is accurate or not is not relevant.

What's the matter... are you afraid to disagree with fuzz?

As usual you refuse to accept reality which is that, self selected or not, the sample in question is HUGE.

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by Neenja

My point is that if 95% of downloaded music is pirated, but people have 80x the music they would have bought, it starts to get really close to a wash at some point.

I don't understand what 'a wash' is.

My point and the point of every creative person I know is simple. We want people to legally purchase the product we put out that isn't free.
If sales drop big time, or we individually struggle to make ends meet in that business climate.... so be it. It's not something we haven't dealt with our whole careers.

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by psalad

D

Yet, you're perfectly OK when this guy makes a completely misleading thread out of unrepresentative data.

This thread is just another talking point IMO. It doesn't absolutely prove anything.
You see, for those of us dealing with this in our work, the linked to article makes us say "I can imagine", NOT "there it is, there's absolute proof if you ever needed it". It's just another single item of evidence to consider.
Talking about

this guy makes a completely misleading thread out of unrepresentative data.

is quite astonishing, seeing as you been bald faced doing exactly that for the last couple of months. Talk about deflecting the blame.

[rack gear]

Originally Posted by psalad

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good argument.

you first, and when you've got them...

[rack gear]

Apple hits 10 billion songs sold - but what's happening to music sales growth? | Technology | guardian.co.uk

10 billion songs sold divided by 220 million ipods sold = what, like 4.5 sold songs per ipod? now... sure some older people may have some CD collections... but 7,000 songs per library on a sample of 1 million people is a bit telling, isn't it...

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by Neenja

My point is that if 95% of downloaded music is pirated, but people have 80x the music they would have bought, it starts to get really close to a wash at some point. Not to say that we shouldn't be trying to make it harder to find illegal files and prosecute people that people that profit from the sites.

Why would you say that?

And I seriously doubt it's anywhere close to 80X.

More like 10X

The point is that if even 5% -10% of those illegal downloads constitute lost sales that's still a HUGE AMOUNT of money.

It 5% constitute lost sales and 95% of downloaded music is pirated, that means that HALF OF ALL POTENTIAL SALES are being lost.

5% is 1/20th. One song in 20. That's a fairly conservative estimate - as I've pointed out several time, music is cheap now. The cost of 5 songs is less than what many kids spend at McDonald's for an after school snack. It's what a typical 20-something spends for ONE DRINK in a bar. It's slightly more than the cost of bus fare in San Francisco to and from work - or any place where you spend more than 90 minutes.

5 bucks is nothing these days.

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by psalad

I don't know whether it's "lots more" or not, but most people I know with large illegal collections are kids. I know only one adult...

Don't get out much, do you?

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by psalad

Do you know what "self selected" means John? That's not a snarky comment, honest question. Do you understand, if there are 100 million iTunes libraries in the world (making up that number, apple has sold more than 250 million ipods), that 1 million is a tiny number, and unlike surveys that do sampling, this one is SELF SELECTED... not selected to be representative.

If your conclusion is there are a damn lot of people who have illegal music... well, duh, we already know this. We all agree.

But if you're trying to use this data to determine, by the size of these particular self selected libraries, how much illegal music is in the "AVERAGE" library, then you have an extremely poor understanding of statistics. That's why this thread is misleading.



Yet, you're perfectly OK when this guy makes a completely misleading thread out of unrepresentative data. I really don't understand you John.

You don't think it's significant that a million people would have their illegal libraries cleaned of bad metadata?

When most people with bad metadata don't even bother - they just live with it?

I don't know ANYBODY who has used that type of service. In fact I never even heard of that service before it was brought up here. I'd wager most others haven't, either.

The fact that they've had a million customers with illegal libraries is pretty shocking, don't you think? Most people with illegal libraries probably would not want to risk submitting them to a 3rd party corporation for any reason.

And I don't think that anybody claimed that to be representative sample. I certainly didn't. As usual you're putting words in people's mouths.

[rack gear]

Originally Posted by psalad

I know I don't have them. You on the other hand... confuse belief with facts.

dude - stop it already, you look foolish enough digging your head deeper and deeper into the sand.

What is the REAL cause of the music industry downturn??

What is the REAL cause of the music industry downturn??

even when you tried to frame the conversation as the economy as a contributing factor - it turns out factually to be of very small significance, if any when looking at the larger issue.

fact is, this is an unprecedented moment for content distribution in the history of content distribution.

to say that having the exact same product available illegally free and consequence free, instantly - is not the major challenge to the paid business is both intellectually dishonest, intentionally obtuse or both.

put two booths side by side with the same product - one selling the product for $10ea, the other giving it away for free - what to you believe would be the reasonable outcome of such an experiment?

[rack gear]

Originally Posted by psalad

Thread title is.. what again?

the thread title is " More Proof of Illegal Songs on IPODS" which in fact the linked article provides... more proof... 1 million sampled libraries is not a survey or a guess, it's quantified.

[John Eppstein]

Originally Posted by psalad

Thread title is.. what again? What does TDWMN quote? Yes, you are being QUITE reasonable here... it's quite obvious that ~1% of users, that are self selected is representative data, when small samples of OTHER data (that you DO NOT agree with) is a big problem.

Basic statistics... in survey data, when the sample is properly selected, a bigger sample just means smaller margin for error... it doesn't usually change the data much, if at all.

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good argument.

Title of the thread is:

More Proof of Illegal Songs on IPODS

I don't see anywhere in that where it says anything about percentages, etc.

it's quite obvious that ~1% of users, that are self selected is representative data,

There you go again, making things up. Nobody ever said anything about percentages in this specific context except YOU.