How do the major labels test whether or not a song is a hit?

[timothy]

How do they do it?

[juicylime]

Why, are you searching for a formula you can reverse engineer?!

[timothy]

Originally Posted by juicylime

Why, are you searching for a formula you can reverse engineer?!

Mainly just interested in figuring out what determines what we get shoved down our throat's.

[lazzaro]

Originally Posted by timothy

How do they do it?

A few years ago, Hit Song Science (HSS) received a lot of press:

Together in electric dreams | | Guardian Unlimited Arts

There was actually a long-form article written
about HSS in a popular magazine (I forget which one,
maybe The Atlantic or the New Yorker) that went into
depth on the musical factors their system looks at.

I have no idea of how widely HSS is used in the industry,
or how well it actually works in practice.

[timothy]

Originally Posted by lazzaro

A few years ago, Hit Song Science (HSS) received a lot of press:

Together in electric dreams | | Guardian Unlimited Arts

There was actually a long-form article written
about HSS in a popular magazine (I forget which one,
maybe The Atlantic or the New Yorker) that went into
depth on the musical factors their system looks at.

I have no idea of how widely HSS is used in the industry,
or how well it actually works in practice.

Thats sick!

[autodidactic]

A few years ago, Hit Song Science (HSS) received a lot of press:

Together in electric dreams | | Guardian Unlimited Arts

There was actually a long-form article written
about HSS in a popular magazine (I forget which one,
maybe The Atlantic or the New Yorker) that went into
depth on the musical factors their system looks at.

I have no idea of how widely HSS is used in the industry,
or how well it actually works in practice.

Nice.. First musicians lose their place in the industry to guys with turntables. Now all the A&R guys lose their place to two guys in labcoats. Can't say I feel too sorry for them.

the gatekeepers

[KaizenMusician]

Originally Posted by lazzaro

A few years ago, Hit Song Science (HSS) received a lot of press:

Together in electric dreams | | Guardian Unlimited Arts

There was actually a long-form article written
about HSS in a popular magazine (I forget which one,
maybe The Atlantic or the New Yorker) that went into
depth on the musical factors their system looks at.

I have no idea of how widely HSS is used in the industry,
or how well it actually works in practice.

hey doods. that computer thing is ridiculous, there is no way a computer will ever be able to predict a hit. Sounds like a Y2K style over hype with some computer programmers trying to make more money.

Anyway mate, they test it. The give the songs to small markets that are very specialised in the music genre that they're going for. For example if you had a down south rapper you would get them to play it on a smaller to big down south stations and see what response it gets.

On something that they've spent a lot of money on they usually go with their own experience and gut feeling on what they think is the best artist and single to push and then just go for it. They 'convince' radion programmers it's a hit and it gets a lotta airplay.

[Zep Dude]

The answer is they have the songs tested by services similar to what radio uses. They also use their judgement and sometimes get feedback from radio stations. Everyone working on the project will have an opinion -A&R, promo people, the pres (if he's into it). At some point the person with the biggest dick in the room will make the decision and whether it's right or wrong, that's what goes to radio.

[The Byre]

The HSS is a silly season story that gets trotted out every summer. Nobody uses it. It is not real software, but just some bloke giving an opinion.

What they do use is focus groups, like most consumer products.

[sage691]

tits and ass

[Zorran]

when people write/produce hit songs etc..what do they draw upon? a completely novel idea each time? nope, tried and tested formulae and textboox tricks. stuff thats been working in the past. that computer software is doing much the same imho. there will always be people who say stuff like you cant record music on your computer! oh you cant sample drums! apples and oranges for sure, but point in case is that there are always naysayers. computers do much more absurd things.

i guess all im trying to say is that i wouldnt be surprised if that software worked.

[picksail]

http://www.hitpredictor.com/

[Stevil]

they pick some random test subjects & play them the same song a billion times. if it gets lodged in their brains & makes them want to spend money, it's a "hit".
...& also tits and ass.

so what does this mean as an artist? grab yer ankles & do whatever the guy signing the checks says.

[slaves666]

Verse - Chorus - Verse - Chorus - Bridge - Chorus.......make sure its on time, in key and you're 1/2 way there.....now make sure its well written. ;)

[ALL*MYTEE]

Platinum Blue.

BBC NEWS | Entertainment | Making hit music into a science

It's actually pretty interesting technology. I don't know how many labels are using it but it certainly has potential for some applications.

[Led]

The way all our stuff was 'tested' was the head of A&R at the label went round to meet with the major station managers and the head programmers. If they told him it would fly it was all good, if not he came back and hassled us to adjust things. We had a few arguments...

[redrue]

I can tell if a song's going to be a hit after hearing it three times....

about 96.3% of the time.

[Sqye]

.

they play it 8 dodecabajillion times.

if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

they play it 8 dodecabajillion times.

if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

they play it 8 dodecabajillion times.

if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

they play it 8 dodecabajillion times.

if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

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if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.

they play it 8 dodecabajillion times.

if it's not a hit by then, they pull it.





.

[MooWahmBah]

wow ...that`s alot of bandwith for a pretty obvious point ..That post will never be a hit ..too wordy ....no tits and ass

[Sqye]

.

obvious, or not. it's fact. and the tna doesn't TRANSLATE on the radio, professor.

repetition is just about the ONLY thing you hear on radio - usually within a 2 beat time-frame.

.

[Eric Greedy]

Originally Posted by picksail

HitPredictor - Radio and Records

what Zep Dude up above said.

Also.... the company that does the "hitpredictor" that Billboard uses is promosquad

promosquad

Once the song goes to radio. Call out research is done after a while. this will give the PD and MD at the station info to decide how many spins and what time slot. This is important becuase a station can "add" your record (committing to about six weeks of play) but they might not be believing in it.. you then get "overnights"... spins in the early morning when your audience is not very large. You notice this by analyzing the audience (rank) verses chart placement (spins or plays) on the Charts at R&R or FMQB online. You can have a higher chart position (more spins) but could be getting your spins overnight while the guy who has fewer spins but during morning drive time... so thus a larger audience.

now.... this was all just info about a "radio hit" a radio hit does not always equate to a sales hit.

that is a different animal...


As to skyes humorous response.... i disagree... they do not play it a 8 bazzilion times to find out if it's a hit... it is an incremental process and it takes weeks and months to build there... I would say it's the other way around.... if it's a HIT then it will be plays 8 bazzilion times... you can reach top 40, top 20, top 10, top 5 and number 1 all with different levels of plays. A lot depends on the format too and the make-up of the various stations in there respective markets. "Animal I have Become" was the biggest single of the year last year at the Active Rock Radio format.... but a hipster Alternative station wouldn't add it... so silly when if you compare the Alternative and Active charts they are at least 2/3 the same. This exact scenario is happening right now with Seethers current single...number#1 for eleven weeks now and KROQ won't add it (Kevin Weatherly is too cool for school)

Last but not least/ On top of all mentioned so far. Some if not all of the labels higher researchers that do this stuff... that does not mean their recommendations change A&R and the Band's manager's decision

[Sqye]

.

i thought it would be OBVIOUS that my post was silly.

my point is, a hit is TOTALLY subjective, and if only a "hit" with a targeted focus group of useless brain dead simians, NOT anything we need to be hearing on the radio 8 fragillion times.

but i guess people are serious about this crap.

to me, most of the crap i hear on any radio is just crap played 8 stragillion times,
whatever the formula, and however the f*ck it got there....

crap = crap.....you can keep playing it over and over again.....

but it's still crap...

i'm AMAZED folks don't get tired of the same fr*kkin' 2 beats rotated ad infinitum...unfr&kkin' believable...

however, as always, YMMV....

business is business, i guess - gotta move them bad boy caps and sean john sneakers....

.

[Killahurts]

Originally Posted by timothy

Mainly just interested in figuring out what determines what we get shoved down our throat's.

Well in the the old days, the A&R folks would get excited about something using their intuition and want to push it to see how far it could go.

That belief and excitement would be infectious and spread to the execs, who would stand behind the product more...

Sometimes it wouldn't work, but much of the time it would because by the time it actually became a hit, there had been a great many people who believed it would be already.

Nowadays, an A&R guy would probably be fired for using his intuition without permission..

It's all business driven now. Hits are most likely determined by publishing arrangements, considering that the increasingly irrelevant labels can't seem to sell any records.

[Rappy]

I thought I'd chime in...

I long ago became disenchanted with so-called "hit records" and what got played on the radio. I realized that my personal taste in music didn't coincide with what audiences or the gatekeepers of the industry thought was good or marketable. I made my peace with that and it no longer bothers me. I will listen to what I want to listen to and the delusional masses can listen to what they want to listen to. Who cares? It isn't worth being angry about it. Just make peace with it.

One thing to consider is that great art and popular culture are two different things. It is possible to be a great artist and die in obscurity, and it is possible to be a celebrity and make millions, but produce disposable crap that happens to be popular. It is very rare for those two worlds to intertwine (i.e. to make great art AND be popular at the same time), but it does happen on occasion. Jimi Hendrix was a great recording artist, a great performance artist, and the highest paid live music act in the world at the time of his death. (I think I read that somewhere, but don't quote me on it.) Of course, he only had 1 or 2 top 40 hits in his career, but he was very popular in life and even more so after death, AND he created great art (which is subjective, of course, as all art is). Record sales, chart positions, and radio spins are quantifiable, whereas quality in the arts will always be qualitative and subjective.

This has probably drifted off topic, but it's late and I'm feeling philosphical. Back to the original post, I'm not sure how they do it today, but back in Motown, I heard a story that Berry Gordy got the idea of using a quality control board from when he worked in Detroit auto plants. After a car left the assembly line, but before it went out into the world, it had to pass very rigorous quality control tests. Inspired by this, Gordy would have a room full of secretaries and average listeners hear a new single that was just recorded. Before it went to the radio stations and the stores, the song would have to pass inspection. He would ask the question that if you were down to your last dollar and had to buy either a loaf of bread or the new single, which would you buy? The quality control people would have to unanimously choose the single, or else it went back to the drawing board. If that won't inspire you to work hard, then I don't know what will.

Peace,

Rappy

[BevvyB]

That Hit Song Science was giving out freebies over xmas and may still be doing it.

I ran all our songs through it. 'Allegedly' picking three of our songs as hits.

What WAS interesting is that you could run it through the USA model or the UK model. And it did come up with surprising differences between the two which on the whole I agreed with (which was very surprising)

It should be pointed out that this technology doesn't just check to see if you've re-written an Avril Lavigne song etc it's more in depth than that

It has ALL the hits from when popular recorded music began, and checks your track against all of them. Statistically, the hit songs over the years tend to form in clumps or regions based on tempo, progression, rise and fall, harmonics, and HSS judges the chances of your track in relation to its proximity to the CENTRE of one of these clumps

Consequently, it doesn't give a damn about genre

Don't forget these models are based on what HUMANS have previously enjoyed listening to. So they are modelling human nature, not coming up with new robotic listening ears. They are actually comparing historically what we've enjoyed, but are coming at it from a lot of angles.

It doesn't make it any less bizarre though.

[redrue]

Originally Posted by BevvyB

I ran all our songs through it. 'Allegedly' picking three of our songs as hits.

Hey Bevvy,

I just gotta know...

Did you feel that the three songs HSS picked were the
three 'strongest' in your own estimation?

[TRA]

A song becoming a hit has nothing to do with how good a song is, but has everything to do with who is telling you the song is a hit (like MTV) and how many times it is played. All you need to do to have a hit song is make a video and have MTV play it a few times. That simple. Think about The Macarena... deep down everyone knew that was a piece of shit, but we couldn't escape it and it sold millions. What about boy bands?

That formula is no different in the gear world. Get a few big names on Gearslutz to say they use XYZ piece of gear and then eBay is flooded with the gear priced at triple what it was selling for two days ago. A few days prior that gear was junk, but now it is somehow amazing. If Chris Lord Alge came to GS and said that the secret to his snare sound is running through a stock 3630 and Alesis Nanoverb you'd better bet your ass they'd double in price on the used market.

We are all sheep.

[narcoman]

Originally Posted by TRA

A song becoming a hit has nothing to do with how good a song is, but has everything to do with who is telling you the song is a hit (like MTV) and how many times it is played. All you need to do to have a hit song is make a video and have MTV play it a few times. That simple. Think about The Macarena... deep down everyone knew that was a piece of shit, but we couldn't escape it and it sold millions. What about boy bands?

That formula is no different in the gear world. Get a few big names on Gearslutz to say they use XYZ piece of gear and then eBay is flooded with the gear priced at triple what it was selling for two days ago. A few days prior that gear was junk, but now it is somehow amazing. If Chris Lord Alge came to GS and said that the secret to his snare sound is running through a stock 3630 and Alesis Nanoverb you'd better bet your ass they'd double in price on the used market.

We are all sheep.

Thats and the fact that most records the majors put out are NOT hits. Its undefinable, i'm afraid. Being a bit of an insider with the insideous major world - there is a lot of luck. You cannot test for a hit basede on music...all you can do is speculate and take advantage of reports coming back to you. Timing and luck.....

[BevvyB]

redrue - the answer is - kinda

The most surprising thing that came out of it were two totally polarised songs - one which was deemed 'very likely' to be succesful in the UK, but not the USA, and another song deemed 'very likely' to be succesful in the USA, but not the UK.

Both songs were literally in the top three, or at the total bottom (ninth out of nine songs)

The one that apparently would do well in the UK was a very dreamy affair, with no particular beat and quite folky. And I have to agree I couldn't see that doing to well in the USA. And the other song is a much more upbeat thing, and I could see that being better received in the states than here.

So that was the real eye opener.

However, this will be put in context against what real human beans are saying.

[Sqye]

Originally Posted by TRA

A song becoming a hit has