While I agree that a new union would be a step up in the right direction, for those involved in that NEW union, it would be uncharted territory and a career ending, bridge burning experiment with no possibility of "going back" or predicting how it would ultimately turn out. Would enough players leave and join the new union, or would early adopters be left standing by themselves with their pants down around their ankles facing an angry firing squad?
Any brave souls making the plunge would almost certainly terminate their association with Local 47, many fellow players and friends unable or unwilling to turn-coat, and with other associates who depend on 47 for work (Stages, engineers, contractors, producers, studio's, etc.). They would be blacklisted and not allowed to work in Local 47. THAT is a big gamble, and requires almost a desperation before even considering.
Local 47 officials and the top 200 musicians know they they have the rest of the LA musicians by the short hairs if they want to work in Films/TV, and they know they know how to control the game and make the rules for their own best interest. You want in, you play by their rules. End of story. This is why there are so many
very talented and frustrated musicians in LA right now. At least that's how it's always been with 47 since I joined. (I still remember the intimidation I felt sitting with bandmates in the Vice Presidents office when I joined close to 30 years ago....almost felt like a meeting with the Godfather...
Now, if there are enough players who feel that the current union has COMPLETELY deserted them, then it could happen. We get closer to that every day. My guess is that it will happen someday, but it will be too late by then, and recording orchestra's in LA will be all but history.