Study confirms impact of HADOPI law on curbing piracy

[spaceman]

oh boy... this not going to please some people here ( please don't shoot me, i'm just the messenger !)

So, this new study from Carnegie-Mellon researchers proves that the french anti-piracy law HADOPI corresponds with a precise and sudden increase of 25% in iTunes sales since it became effective. And France seems to be the only country in Europe to have seen this increase in sales. And it's the only one to have a similar anti-piracy law in Europe.

Funnily enough, if you read french you should check this article in newspaper Le Monde , where the journalists try to belie the study by saying that the real reason for this unique increase in sales in France , is due to the fact that it coincides with the fact that Apple made huge sales in France of its iPhone , and because you can buy iTunes tracks from the iPhone , people did.

I don't know a single person who buys songs directly from their iPhone.

mmm.. so does that mean that laws can ideed have an effect on piracy ?
Discuss

[JoRillo]

I think that SOPA and PIPA will DEFINITELY help out the sales of music. I also think that it gives the government more control then they need, and it will eventually infringe on my rights, so I will be voting NO to sopa. Let the flame war begin.

[initialsBB]

Originally Posted by JoRillo

I will be voting NO to sopa.

Wow, you're a congressman?

[spaceman]

Originally Posted by JoRillo

I think that SOPA and PIPA will DEFINITELY help out the sales of music. I also think that it gives the government more control then they need, and it will eventually infringe on my rights, so I will be voting NO to sopa. Let the flame war begin.

Well , i don't know about SOPA, but i can tell you that in France , the number one and main argument of its opponents was that it would be completely inefficient. No one could argument that it infringed on free speech , because it didn't ( and if you're familiar with how it works, you can will have a hard time proving that it does )

I would prefer a world where we don't resort to laws. But facts are facts.

[shponglefan]

Originally Posted by JoRillo

Let the flame war begin.

It already has.

[rack gear]

Originally Posted by JoRillo

I think that SOPA and PIPA will DEFINITELY help out the sales of music. I also think that it gives the government more control then they need, and it will eventually infringe on my rights, so I will be voting NO to sopa. Let the flame war begin.

really, you will be voting no on SOPA? really?

I didn't know you got to vote on it... but anyway...

it's dead dude, it's been dead for almost a week.

please educate yourself on the issues if you are going to be so passionate about it... again... SOPA IS DEAD, PIPA IS DEAD...

take your victory lap, and maybe try to get educated on the issues... there will be new legislation, no doubt... but PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE at least be AWARE of the status of a bill you are opposing...

if you don't even know the status of the bill I'm hard pressed to believe you even read it or factually understand what it was...

[JoRillo]

I love the fact that I recognize everyones avatar that came here. lol

I wrote a letter to my state representative telling them I am against SOPA, so yes, like I said, I am voting against it. My bad that No written on a piece of paper with my name on it isn't dropped into the hat when it got passed around at congress.

I actually didn't know the bill was completely dropped - I had heard that, but I have heard a lot of things that turned out to not be true.

Come on guys - grow up. *Feeds the Troll*

[spaceman]

Guys, HADOPI is completely different from SOPA. That's the whole point. It's a procedure that can be attacked on many aspects, but that no one can accuse of infringing on freedom of speech and has zero relation with censorship.

The point is , it seems that a fine-tuned law can have effect on piracy without collateral damage on free speech and what have you...

A 25% jump in sales in 2 years it pretty impressive i have to say.

[NotchontheRocks]

Well obviously stricter anti-piracy laws will result in decreased piracy/increased music sales. Was this ever really the heart of the argument anyway?

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by NotchontheRocks

Well obviously stricter anti-piracy laws will result in decreased piracy/increased music sales. Was this ever really the heart of the argument anyway?

Unfortunately yes.

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by spaceman

oh boy... this not going to please some people here ( please don't shoot me, i'm just the messenger !)

So, this new study from Carnegie-Mellon researchers proves that the french anti-piracy law HADOPI corresponds with a precise and sudden increase of 25% in iTunes sales since it became effective.

Wrong. See my response in the main thread: http://www.gearslutz.com/board/7482507-post1531.html

Funnily enough, if you read french you should check this article in newspaper Le Monde , where the journalists try to belie the study by saying that the real reason for this unique increase in sales in France , is due to the fact that it coincides with the fact that Apple made huge sales in France of its iPhone , and because you can buy iTunes tracks from the iPhone , people did.

I don't know a single person who buys songs directly from their iPhone.

You need to improve your French. The article says that people install iTunes on their computers to transfer files to their iPhones. It does not say that people buy music from their iPhones. I would say the Le Monde article very much debunks the study.

Alistair

[spaceman]

Originally Posted by UnderTow

You need to improve your French. The article says that people install iTunes on their computers to transfer files to their iPhones. It does not say that people buy music from their iPhones. I would say the Le Monde article very much debunks the study.

Alistair

Err... YOU need to improve your French. NOWHERE in the Le Monde article do they deny that sales jumped 25% in two years. Show me where.

All they pretend, is that it's the iPhone market penetration that acomplished that.

So :
- Either sales jumped 25% because of HADOPI law. Wich is amazing for such a "soft" law compared to SOPA.
- Or sales jumped 25% because of the iPhone market penetration. Wich is even MORE amazing, and very hard to believe. But if true , kudos to Apple , the iPhone can make sales jump by 25% , just on its own ! Its' truly "a magical and revolutionary product." All hail the iPhone

And even after trying to prove that it's the miraculous iPhone who achieved this (wich is NOT what the study shows) , they end the article by saying

Faut-il pour autant nier un "impact pédagogique" lié à la mise en place de la Hadopi ? L'effet existe indéniablement, mais il est en revanche extrêmement difficile de le quantifier.

Something like: "But still, can one deny the pedagogic effects of Hadopi ? It's effect is undeniable, but on the other hand extremely difficult to quantify"

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by spaceman

Uh oh.... this upcoming fresh news won't please some people here : Study confirms impact of HADOPI law on curbing piracy

The study does not confirm it. Your title is misleading. The article you link states: "Seul problème : si l'étude suggère qu'il existe une corrélation entre l'accroissement des ventes sur iTunes et la mise en place de la Hadopi, elle ne la prouve pas."

In English: While the study suggests that there is a correlation between the increase in sales on iTune and the adoption of the Hadopi laws, it does not prove it.

France is the leading country in iPhone sales (in Europe) which means that people install iTunes on their computers to use their iPhones. That in itself is likely to increase iTunes sales in that country compared to others.

If you look at the graph provided by IFPI:



You see a slow gradual increase of iTunes sales in France that starts before the Hadopi laws. (Which pretty much debunks the whole theory) The sales lead in France actually tapers out to be much less insignificant by the end of the graph.

Le Monde also demonstrates a clear lead in interest in iTunes in general compared to the control countries by looking at Google trending:



That graph shows the same trend as the iPhone sales graph with the same loss of lead towards the right of the graph.

So in short: Nothing has been proven. A pitty really. AFAIK the Hadopi laws are much less draconian than anything like SOPA.

Alistair

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by spaceman

Nope, my title refers to the study

Which doesn't confirm anything.

sales jumped 25%

Just look at the graph yourself. Look at the right hand side.




I don't see a 25% lead by any stretch of the imagination. And certainly no jump (For that you have to look at the whole graph of course). Bad study. Bad interpretation on your part. Bunk.

Alistair

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by spaceman

The Le Monde article ADMITS that sales have indeed jumped 25% according to that study, whether it's the iPhone effect ( hard to believe ), or the HADOPI law.

Your French is no good. :-D

The article states "d'après une étude réalisée par des universitaires américains, se basant sur les ventes d'albums et de morceaux sur iTunes des quatre principales maisons de disques, les ventes ont augmenté partout, mais nettement plus en France : entre 22,5 et 25 % de mieux que dans les pays voisins.[/quote]

In other words in English: According to a study by....

Alistair

[initialsBB]

Originally Posted by UnderTow

I don't see a 25% lead by any stretch of the imagination. And certainly no jump (For that you have to look at the whole graph of course). Bad study. Bad interpretation on your part. Bunk.

Bad graph reading on your part. That says "google trends" not sales.

[spaceman]

In other words in English: According to a study by....

Well, what's your point ? That's exactly what i'm saying.

There is a new american study that says the HADOPI law correlates with a 25% jump in music sales in two years.
And there's the Le Monde article that says " according to that study , sales jumped 25%" , but then goes on to prove that it's due to the iPhone market penetration, not to the Hadopi law. NOWHERE does it say that this impressive jump in sales didn't happen.

And if you're not familiar with the way it works, it's like a "three-strike and you're out" thing. You get hefty fines after a couple of warnings. Then if you insist , you get your Internet connection disconnected.

[initialsBB]

Originally Posted by initialsBB

Bad graph reading on your part. That says "google trends" not sales.

Actually, my bad. You cropped off the left side of the graph that had the rest of the legend. So the red and blue lines do indicate sales. But you still misread the graph because the 25 in the part you cropped is still a measure of google trends and not an indication of sales.

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by initialsBB

Actually, my bad. You cropped off the left side of the graph that had the rest of the legend.

You are partially correct. It is the correct graph but the scale on the right hand side is not the actual sales. (The red and blue lines are still the sales). The sales are on the left hand side of that same graph. Let's have a closer look:



Check out that scale. If you look at the sales in France compared to the control countries in the last few months there is a difference between 10.7 and maybe 10.8 or 10.9. How does that make 25%?

Lies and statistics...


Even bunker than I thought. Thanks for pointing that out.

Alistair

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by initialsBB

But you still misread the graph because the 25 in the part you cropped is still a measure of google trends and not an indication of sales.

There is no 25. Neither in sales nor in trends. That is my point.

Alistair

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by UnderTow

France is the leading country in iPhone sales (in Europe) which means that people install iTunes on their computers to use their iPhones. That in itself is likely to increase iTunes sales in that country compared to others.

Alistair

From end of 2011:

Reuters reports on new data from research firm Kantar Worldpanel showing strong sales for the iPhone over the last three months in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia, driven by the debut iPhone 4S. The company has, however, seen weaker sales in much of continental Europe in the face of economic difficulties and strong competition.
"In Great Britain, the U.S. and Australia, Apple's new iPhone continues to fly off the shelf in the run-up to Christmas. However, this trend is far from universal," said Dominic Sunnebo, global consumer insight director.

Apple's market share in the 12 weeks to end-November rose to 36 percent in the United States from 25 percent a year earlier and in Britain to 31 percent from 21 percent, Kantar said.

However, in France its share slipped to 20 percent from 29 percent and in Germany to 22 percent from 27 percent. Similar drops were seen in Italy and Spain.

[initialsBB]

Originally Posted by UnderTow

If you look at the sales in France compared to the control countries in the last few months there is a difference between 10.7 and maybe 10.8 or 10.9.

Why are you looking at only a few months? The study covers the entire period after the adoption of HADOPI

Originally Posted by UnderTow

How does that make 25%?

I don't know, try reading the study. I trust a study done at Carnegie Mellon more than I trust your unconvincing attempt to debunk it.

Originally Posted by UnderTow

There is no 25. Neither in sales nor in trends. That is my point.

There's a 25% increase in sales. That's not going to show up as a number 25 on the side of the graph. The researchers arrived at that number by looking at sales over the whole time period and comparing them to sales in other countries as a control group. That seems like a pretty sound method to me.

[chrisso]

In fact, sales of iPhone slowed in France, at the same time iTunes sales continued to increase.

[UnderTow]

Originally Posted by initialsBB

Why are you looking at only a few months? The study covers the entire period after the adoption of HADOPI

No where in that graph is there a 25% lead but more importantly, if it was only a temporary effect, it isn't good enough is it?

I don't know, try reading the study. I trust a study done at Carnegie Mellon more than I trust your unconvincing attempt to debunk it.

I am more inclined to believe Le Monde than a "study" commissioned by IFPI. And if you have anything to address my debunking, feel free to share...

There's a 25% increase in sales. That's not going to show up as a number 25 on the side of the graph.

The numbers are about 10.7 for the control countries and 10.9 for France. That is not a 25% lead by any stretch of the imagination.

Alistair

[initialsBB]

From the study:

Combined, the four major labels sold an average of 491,000 tracks per week in France after March 2009. Our findings indicate that in the absence of HADOPI, if France followed the same trend as the control group,20 sales would have averaged only 401,000 units per week. Thus, our results suggest that the HADOPI law (and the education and media attention surrounding it) increased iTunes single sales by 90,000 units per week on average. If we assume an average song price of €1 per song, this equates to an increase of €4.7 million ($6.3 million) in annual iTunes track revenues.

also

Accounting for the fact that our independent variable is in log terms, these estimates indicate
that French track sales units rose about 25.5% in the control group after March 1, 2009 but by 48% in
France, indicating that French iTunes track sales were 22.5% higher on average than they would have
been in the absence of HADOPI.16 Similarly, album sales units rose by 42% in the control group but 67%
in France, indicating that HADOPI increased iTunes album sales an average 25% per week in France.
Standard errors are clustered at the country level, and these difference-in-difference results are
statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.17

I don't understand statistics well enough to know what's going on in their graph. But what you seem to be arguing is that the study's own graph contradicts their findings. I think that's highly unlikely and I suspect that you're really just misreading the graph.

[spaceman]

Originally Posted by UnderTow

No where in that graph is there a 25% lead but more importantly, if it was only a temporary effect, it isn't good enough is it?

Hadopi was introduced in 2009. Sales jumped up 25% from 2009 to 2011. 25% up in two years is not good enough ? what did you expect 30000% up in two years ?

Originally Posted by UnderTow

I am more inclined to believe Le Monde than a "study" commissioned by IFPI. And if you have anything to address my debunking, feel free to share...

Well then you don't know the french newspapers
They were all notoriously opposed to Hadopi.
I didn't see anywhere by the way where it says the Carnegie-Mellon study was commisioned by the IFPI. You can bet that if it was, Le Monde would have jumped right away on that.

[Murphster]

So what do you know? Halve the price of music (thus increase its value) and sales go up!!!

October 2010:

In a daft French scheme to persuade their youth that buying music is a good idea, the state is doling out subsidies to people aged 12-25 to allow them to tune up.

French folk of the right age can buy €50 vouchers with which to obtain music online but the government picks up half the bill so the vouchers only cost prospective punters €25 (£21.50).
Eurocrats at the European Commission gave the scheme the green light earlier this week.

In a statement Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said: "Music online is certainly a driver for the success of the Internet and for economic development. However, we shall ensure that such initiatives are implemented in compliance with the EU state aid rules.”
He reckoned the scheme "will contribute to preserving pluralism and cultural diversity in the online music industry."

The French government has earmarked some 25 million euros (£22 million) to pay for the two-year scheme. It expects to shift around one million cards and the kids will be allowed to buy one card per year.

France buys its citizens music | ITProPortal.com


Spaceman, did you forget about this factor?

[initialsBB]

Uh oh spaceman, I think he's about to call you a commie.

[Murphster]

Originally Posted by initialsBB

Uh oh spaceman, I think he's about to call you a commie.

Whatever.

[chrisso]

Originally Posted by Murphster

So what do you know? Halve the price of music (thus increase its value) and sales go up!!!

Vouchers that went only to one demographic (according to your link).

The iTiunes market is surely not restricted to 12 to 25 year olds? And if you can get something for free you're surely not swayed by a 50% off voucher?