Well this is good: Mininova deletes all infringing torrents...

[lagavulin16]

Originally Posted by redvelvetstudios

it sure is, and if you take piracy out of the equation people can actually make some money.

We've gone over this too many times, so we'll just have to agree to disagree. These are my points:

1) You will never be able to take piracy out of the equation.
2) Even if you could, music has been permanently devalued forever, must like books when the printing press came around.
3) You will never have the music industry circa 1989 again.
4) People will continue to write and create amazing music regardless.

If you ever are capable of disproving any of these four points, I will be the first to admit it and I'll set my signature to permanently say "redvelvetstudios was right, I was wrong, and I will never question him again".

Please bookmark this post. Thanks.

[rack gear]

we can disagree, however the amount of bias and misinformation needs to be addressed.

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

We've gone over this too many times, so we'll just have to agree to disagree. These are my points:

1) You will never be able to take piracy out of the equation.

agreed - nothing will every be 100%, but an 80% solution will be "good enough" to make a major change. no law or regulation has ever stopped any illegal activity - it has only reduced it to a more manageable level. people still steal cars and all sorts of things... but it's not complete chaos and anarchy.

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

2) Even if you could, music has been permanently devalued forever, must like books when the printing press came around.

that's just your opinion. maybe, maybe not.

but we do know is that in each territory that these systems, laws regulations go into effect, we see sales build and rebound... so... I guess we'll see...

the signs are very encouraging. when people can no longer easily steal with out consequence, sales start to return... who knew?

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

3) You will never have the music industry circa 1989 again.

again, your opinion - and the irony is - you maybe be entirely right in the wrong way - I actually believe once this piracy business is dealt with effectively the recorded music industry will see BETTER numbers than the previous peak in 1999 (which was the actual peak for the industry, not 89)

95% of all music distributed digitally is illegal, if we get 40% of that back (and it's likely we'll get more than that) the numbers will simply be staggering because of global micro-economics at work and expanding new markets.

what we haven't seen yet is the benefit of a robust record store with an infinitely deep catalog being in every single house with an internet connection (but without the ability to easily and cost effectively steal music without consequence)

Personally I'm excited about the upcoming year or two, I think it's going to be awesome.

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

4) People will continue to write and create amazing music regardless.

right, and here's your proof - God know's we can't stop them...
SoundClick - Free MP3 music download and much, much more.

and thank God as noted above, I don't think it will actually come to that as an Industry with a capitol "I".

I've been in the business 24 years now, and it's been a rough ride the last 8-10 of those years, but I am optimistic that copyright control will be restored and with it the appropriate revenues.

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

If you ever are capable of disproving any of these four points, I will be the first to admit it and I'll set my signature to permanently say "redvelvetstudios was right, I was wrong, and I will never question him again".

I just did.

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

Please bookmark this post. Thanks.

I guess we'll both see how the next 18 months or so play out - let's meet back here June of 2011...

somehow I think we'll probably both be wrong - as no one saw itunes coming or how it would be a game changer - I think we're bound for at least one more of those in the next year and half.

[lagavulin16]

Originally Posted by redvelvetstudios

we can disagree, however the amount of bias and misinformation needs to be addressed.

I'm stating my opinion, which I consider to be relatively informed, and I'm quite confident in it. I don't think there is any misinformation or bias in my four points beyond the fact that it is my opinion, and we're both trying to predict the future. One of us could be right, we could both be wrong, etc.

agreed - nothing will every be 100%, but an 80% solution will be "good enough" to make a major change. no law or regulation has ever stopped any illegal activity - it has only reduced it to a more manageable level. people still steal cars and all sorts of things... but it's not complete chaos and anarchy.

You won't get to 80%. I don't think you'll get to 20%. I'll change my signature if 80% of the piracy goes away and stays away for 2 years.

that's just your opinion. maybe, maybe not.

but we do know is that in each territory that these systems, laws regulations go into effect, we see sales build and rebound... so... I guess we'll see...

the signs are very encouraging. when people can no longer easily steal with out consequence, sales start to return... who knew?

We've seen sales rebound in Sweden. Lots of things work in Sweden that might not work in the US. Let's see how things go. I think people will continue to commit copyright infringement without consequence.

again, your opinion - and the irony is - you maybe be entirely right in the wrong way - I actually believe once this piracy business is dealt with effectively the recorded music industry will see BETTER numbers than the previous peak in 1999 (which was the actual peak for the industry, not 89)

I used 1989 as a year to refer to the type of control in distribution and production that was in place, not the peak year for revenue. Computers have made everything cheaper, not just made it easy to copy files. I don't think the music industry will ever see 1999 numbers again outside of inflationary increases.

95% of all music distributed digitally is illegal, if we get 40% of that back (and it's likely we'll get more than that) the numbers will simply be staggering because of global micro-economics at work and expanding new markets.

1) You're assuming you can stop it, I don't think you can.
2) You're assuming that if you stopped 40% of it, that 40% would be purchased instead. That simply isn't the case.

There is a very, very big gap between what people will take for free and what people will even pay 50 cents for.

what we haven't seen yet is the benefit of a robust record store with an infinitely deep catalog being in every single house with an internet connection (but without the ability to easily and cost effectively steal music without consequence)

Personally I'm excited about the upcoming year or two, I think it's going to be awesome.

I guess it comes down to this: I don't think they'll ever be able to stop people from copying music. You seem to think that they will be able to, at least to a strong enough degree to make an impact. Bookmark this thread and let's revisit it in a year or two.

right, and here's your proof - God know's we can't stop them...
SoundClick - Free MP3 music download and much, much more.

and thank God as noted above, I don't think it will actually come to that as an Industry with a capitol "I".

I've never been to that site. Is that the lowest common denominator of unsigned acts?

I've been in the business 24 years now, and it's been a rough ride the last 8-10 of those years, but I am optimistic that copyright control will be restored and with it the appropriate revenues.

I guess we'll both see how the next 18 months or so play out - let's meet back here June of 2011...

somehow I think we'll probably both be wrong - as no one saw itunes coming or how it would be a game changer - I think we're bound for at least one more of those in the next year and half.

I'll talk to you in June. I guess I see you as an optimist, you see me as a pessimist, and we probably each see ourselves as realists.

[narcoman]

Originally Posted by lagavulin16

I think it's all connected. It's a combo of adverts, buzz, placement, pirating, blog reviews, review websites, etc.

well - yes. that's difference.... tiny boosts in awareness is where it's at - it's just the balance of damage from such issues against promotion is vastly one sided!

[mobius.media]

Originally Posted by XHipHop

Several have. We've gone over this. Don't be dishonest.

Like who?

[Lemonsqueezer]

Originally Posted by author

This has indeed been a good year.

don't be so naive. It hasn't altered anything.

[rack gear]

Piracy - 10 Inconvenient Truths
Piracy - 10 Inconvenient Truths
Music piracy - ten inconvenient truths
London, 31st May 2007

1. Pirate Bay, one of the flagships of the anti-copyright movement, makes thousands of euros from advertising on its site, while maintaining its anti-establishment “free music” rhetoric.

2. Allofmp3.com, the well-known Russian website, has not been licensed by a single IFPI member, has been disowned by right holder groups worldwide and is facing criminal proceedings in Russia.

3. Organised criminal gangs and even terrorist groups use the sale of counterfeit CDs to raise revenue and launder money.

4. Illegal file-sharers don’t care whether the copyright infringing work they distribute is from a major or independent label.

5. Reduced revenues for record companies mean less money available to take a risk on “underground” artists and more inclination to invest in “bankers” like American Idol stars.

6. ISPs often advertise music as a benefit of signing up to their service, but facilitate the illegal swapping on copyright infringing music on a grand scale.

7. The anti-copyright movement does not create jobs, exports, tax revenues and economic growth – it largely consists of people pontificating on a commercial world about which they know little.

8. Piracy is not caused by poverty. Professor Zhang of Nanjing University found the Chinese citizens who bought pirate products were mainly middle or higher income earners.

9. Most people know it is wrong to file-share copyright infringing material but won't stop till the law makes them, according to a recent study by the Australian anti-piracy group MIPI.

10. P2P networks are not hotbeds for discovering new music. It is popular music that is illegally file-shared most frequently.

[lagavulin16]

Originally Posted by redvelvetstudios

[top]Piracy - 10 Inconvenient Truths

London, 31st May 2007

1. Pirate Bay, one of the flagships of the anti-copyright movement, makes thousands of euros from advertising on its site, while maintaining its anti-establishment “free music” rhetoric.

What's your point? That they were leading everyone on to believe they were providing the bandwidth out of the goodness of their hearts? They were providing content, granted most of it illegally, but like any other site they have to pay for bandwidth, server hosting, etc. The only way to do that is ads or subscriptions.

2. Allofmp3.com, the well-known Russian website, has not been licensed by a single IFPI member, has been disowned by right holder groups worldwide and is facing criminal proceedings in Russia.

I remember reading about them. I knew no one with IP ever supported them, but I thought what they were doing was technically legal in Russia due to a loophole. I guess the law changed? What happened?

3. Organised criminal gangs and even terrorist groups use the sale of counterfeit CDs to raise revenue and launder money.

Your point being... that once it becomes harder to download music for free, the organized criminal gangs will make even MORE money by selling counterfeit CDs to people who can no longer download them for free? That organized criminal gangs and terrorist groups will do anything illegal to make money? I'm not sure why this is even in this list.

4. Illegal file-sharers don’t care whether the copyright infringing work they distribute is from a major or independent label.

Some do, and some don't. At least, assuming you're talking about the end users and not the hosting sites. But I'll agree that most could care less.

5. Reduced revenues for record companies mean less money available to take a risk on “underground” artists and more inclination to invest in “bankers” like American Idol stars.

It means less money in general. The record companies were never in it for anything but the money, at least as far as the major labels go. They will sign and sell whoever they think will make the most money.

They didn't have a 10% slush fund for vanity acts that they considered a tithe to the arts.

6. ISPs often advertise music as a benefit of signing up to their service, but facilitate the illegal swapping on copyright infringing music on a grand scale.

ISPs also often advertise downloading software and videos as a benefit of signing up for their service. Yes, some people are downloading hacked copies of Photoshop but others are downloading GPL copies of the Gimp, Firefox, and other open source software. Same with videos. Lots of stuff on youtube doesn't violate anyone's copyright, but people still want to watch a video of a pug skateboarding even if NBC didn't produce it.

7. The anti-copyright movement does not create jobs, exports, tax revenues and economic growth – it largely consists of people pontificating on a commercial world about which they know little.

This isn't an inconvenient truth, it's an empty opinion not backed up by any empirical data whatsoever.

8. Piracy is not caused by poverty. Professor Zhang of Nanjing University found the Chinese citizens who bought pirate products were mainly middle or higher income earners.

Really? You mean someone who is actually considered "poor" in China is more concerned with spending a week's wages on food than a pirated copy of the new Britney Spears CD? You mean people who can afford to own computers are more likely than a farmer without electricity to buy a pirated copy of MS Office 2003?

9. Most people know it is wrong to file-share copyright infringing material but won't stop till the law makes them, according to a recent study by the Australian anti-piracy group MIPI.

Same goes with people who jay walk or speed.

10. P2P networks are not hotbeds for discovering new music. It is popular music that is illegally file-shared most frequently.

This is an extension of the Chinese farmer argument listed above. Were you expecting anyone to think that the more obscure and unknown the artist is, the more popular they are on torrent sites? Any statistician can tell you that the volume of pirate bandwidth should be equivalent to the volume of sales/popularity of any artist.

However, the argument suggests that people don't discover new music on these sites. That isn't true. I've never heard of a site that will only allow you to pirate music if it's been featured on MTV 100 times in a week.

[diogo_c]

Originally Posted by redvelvetstudios

8. Piracy is not caused by poverty. Professor Zhang of Nanjing University found the Chinese citizens who bought pirate products were mainly middle or higher income earners.

Say that to the 3rd world! thumbsup