Iraq: Would a war hurt your business?

[jon]

What do you all think -- is a future war likely to have a lot of effect on the music business?

Should we be hoarding cash and preparing for a major slowdown in work?

[thethrillfactor]

Originally posted by jon
What do you all think -- is a future war likely to have a lot of effect on the music business?

Should we be hoarding cash and preparing for a major slowdown in work?

Back in '91 things here in the NYC slowed down a bit all over. After a couple of months though it picked up like normal.

Now with the threat of terrorism abroad things may change some.

Some of my best clients(and richest) are from India and Pakistan.

We've talked about this at length all ready, how to prepare in case not much traveling will be happening. They feel it may not affect business(the Gulf War didn't last that long) that much. But who knows?

This year I am supposed to go to India to help one of my clients(a Prince) setup a new "High End Sound Hotel". If there is a war...ain't know way I am going to get on a plane and go over there!!!

No matter what they are paying.

[e-cue]

War historcally, usually boosts the economy. The uncertainty of war seems to be the thing to mess things up. So far this year, I've seen the worst year in, well, ever. It's depressing walking through a 5 room studio that is completely empty except for you. I think the indies will make major headway on the majors this year.

I have been wondering myself...

The thing about wartime I remember a wise person saying is - you dont know what will happen next. Unexpected turns can cause nasty shocks.

I dont feel immune to disturbance and upheaval just because I work in the charmed world of 'the arts'.

Serious forward planning is required I suggest.. but for what?

EVERYTHING! Is perhaps the answer...

Lets think... (and pray?)



Good thread - bring it on!

BTW - If I lived in the 'boonies' I would invest in solar power for my studio!

[jon]

Business has been excellent in 2003 so far...but I wonder if there will be a steep drop-off. We had 8 albums we could have accepted in February if we had had 8 rooms. It's madness. Almost as if the label production coordinators are in a hurry to spend their budget and get their projects done before the fighting begins. Or maybe everyone wants to have product ready for a September release. I don't know. If fighting starts, I wonder how much that will affect recording/mixing activity and budget spends. At the same time, a current strange mood of terrible uncertainty exists because we're all in limbo as to what will happen and when regarding Iraq. It's like you know something is going to happen, but you don't know when and you don't know how bad it's going to hurt. The topic definitely overhangs the meal conversations with the artists and engineers during sessions here.

[Renie]

The thing on my mind is that insurance won't cover terrorism... I live close to Westminster.
I do wonder about getting affected by terrorism physically too, as I travel into central London all the time.
I hope I'll be lucky.

[Midlandmorgan]

As harsh as this may sound, conflicts in the Middle East will give my area's business, mine and everyone else's, a real boost. West Texas economy thrives when a steady oil supply from offshore sources diminish...More workers getting more money to spend...kinda sad but true.

[chrisso]

Originally posted by thethrillfactor

This year I am supposed to go to India to help one of my clients(a Prince) setup a new "High End Sound Hotel". If there is a war...ain't know way I am going to get on a plane and go over there!!!

Please don't starve yourself of work based on fear.
During the Gulf War I had to travel between LA, SF and London a few times. The security was TIGHT and better than ever. The planes were empty.....I mean on one 'Jumbo' flight there was about 20 people other than me. The airlines treated you like gold as a result.
I wouldn't go to areas where there is a history of attacks on American's (like Yemen, Indonesia and Pakistan), but if you're in a major Indian city AND being looked after by a wealthy prince I wouldn't even hesitate.
I'm flying to Australia and back over the next couple of months (the flight goes over Saudi and India etc), I did likewise during the Afghan war. You never would have known there was anything going on.
During the '91 conflict I had US friends telling me "I just heard London has been bombed" and other crazy rumours.
Go about your normal business and hope there isn't a slowdown is my advice.

[Knox]

Originally posted by jon
What do you all think -- is a future war likely to have a lot of effect on the music business?

It really hurt us last time. I am already feeling the effects from the larger corporations down to people that were getting financing from private sources. Some (with the money) are saying that they are going to wait and see what happens. Of course with bands doing private cds . . . it doesn't matter. Though I found record companies weren't signing much during the war or right after 9/11.

I remember at the time, record companies were saying "we are not spending as we did until we find out what happens with the war".

The 9/11 attacks damn near put me out of business. I had a piece I was writing for one of the Movie Channels that was coming in ($18,000) on the 18th . . . .I got a call on 9/14 to forget it. That they were not even thinking about spending money unti they found out what was going to happen. I didn't have work in here for a month after 9/11 and then it was slow.

I don't have a great feeling about it.

[C.Lambrechts]

Before 9/11 things were going uphill at a tremendous rate for us. Both sales and studio department. We bought a big hangar, started to make plans to build a complex with in house studio (large central control room / 1 large recording room / 3 smaller recording rooms / offline editing room) in house video productions (1 avid cell) / 2 seperate offices / a lounge room big enough to do small concerts / showcases / product demonstrations equiped with bar / kitchen ....... 1 big 3 bedroom appartment above the complex and 1 smaller 1 bedroom appartment.

The plans are there / the contracters ready to go / even the money to start it all is within reach, although the banks got more hesitant and difficult about it after 9/11.

2002 wasn't a bad year but instead of increasing turnover the sales department slightly dropped back and the studio department managed to make the same as 2001. But is should have increased all along the line and it didn't. Instead of starting constructions in the summer of 2002 we postponed it untill early 2003. This is early 2003 and we're looking at the summer of 2003.

The deal with this project is for both my partner and I that we do not want to get into a situation where we cannot pay the bank and the electricity bills. If business would have improved in 2002 like it did in 2001 and 2000, the building would have been finished by now.

Do I blame it on 9/11 .... definately not entirely but it has something to do with it.

A couple of weeks ago we were talking about 'what if 9/11/2001 would have happened 9/11/2002' ..... of course one cannot say and I definately tend to stay positive minded about the future .... that building is going to happen ..... but more important is that I can put a decent steak on the table for my kids and go skying with them from time to time. Call it selfish and egocentric if you like .... I do care about the thousands of lives lost in terrorist attacks and wars. But do I go on a bustrip from London to Bagdad to pose myself as a human shield ..... nope .... can't bother .... sorry .... I admire the courage and idealism but that's about it.

Of course I'm scared about a possible war in Iracq. One should be .... but I won't let it live my life. I'm to busy trying to be a good human myself, I cannot spare the time nore find the energy to convince others to do so too. I vote for people who imho will allow me to do that. I vote for them and I pay taxes to pay for their salary and it is their job to make this world a happy place. If they don't do that I'll vote for somebody else next time around and admit that I was wrong. Simplistic way of putting it maybe but that's what it comes down too. Who's right and who's wrong ??? I dunno. I happento be born in a western society and thank whatever entity allowed me to live the life I lead. I hope and pray to that same entity that the people in charge of all this take the right decissions for the right reasons .... that's all.

Going back to trying to be happy now.

[andre tchmil]

history proved that during ecnomical recession, cultural life would lift.
Remember 60's and 80's, Boy I'm getting old .
So don't be too negative I would say.........

[Knox]

Originally posted by andre tchmil
history proved that during ecnomical recession, cultural life would lift.

"cultural life" . . . . you think bands today have culture? :)
80's . . . culture? You mean hair spray and shoes don't you?

[Jack the Bear]

Historically during tough times people looked for ways to escape the doom and gloom. It was during WWII that the phenomenon of the musical came to be.

And remeber guys (and gals) that FEAR stands for

False
Evaluation (of)
Actual
Reality

How many times have we feared things only to discover that a] it never happened or b] it wasn't so bad?

Let's all hope for the best and prepare for the worse, but let's not be a slave to it!!

Cheers,

[thethrillfactor]

Originally posted by chrisso
Please don't starve yourself of work based on fear.
During the Gulf War I had to travel between LA, SF and London a few times. The security was TIGHT and better than ever. The planes were empty.....I mean on one 'Jumbo' flight there was about 20 people other than me. The airlines treated you like gold as a result.
I wouldn't go to areas where there is a history of attacks on American's (like Yemen, Indonesia and Pakistan), but if you're in a major Indian city AND being looked after by a wealthy prince I wouldn't even hesitate.
I'm flying to Australia and back over the next couple of months (the flight goes over Saudi and India etc), I did likewise during the Afghan war. You never would have known there was anything going on.
During the '91 conflict I had US friends telling me "I just heard London has been bombed" and other crazy rumours.
Go about your normal business and hope there isn't a slowdown is my advice.

My fear is not just flying.

But I have to be there for three months. Prince or no prince(hey they've killed those in the past)if a real war breaks out everyone will feel it...especially the"ugly american".

No one wants a war right now, even here in the USA(I guess except GW Bush and that's a whole other post). A lot of the UN countries are not supporting it, he is basically on his own this time.

In the past, yeah war has helped record sales. But we live in a different time. Back then there wasn't so many outlets buying for the entertainment dollar(including the Internet,Blockbuster,and Satellite Dishes). Last year even though we had a depressing economy(since 9/11) more people than ever supposedly went to the movies(this whole statistic is rigged), but the music business had their worst sales...ever. This slide hasn't stopped. Music has beome like Mcdonald's, you eat it quick on the run and throw it away after your are finished(usually in the bathroom).

No one really buys CD's anymore face it.

Maybe this year we will finally see CD's selling for the price of a movie ticket here in the city($10) like it used to be. That would be different.

[recorderman]

Originally posted by Jack the Bear
It was during WWII that the phenomenon of the musical came to be.

maybe a nitpick...but the american musical, both in the cinema and on broadway was before WWII.

[cajonezzz]

I don't know how it'll effect our studio biz ( we're not big dogs and really not that relliant on the income) but as a musician first my income from my primary gig was cut by 44% this year.....directly as a result of the 9/11 attacks causing the corporations we work for to put on the brakes, and cancel bookings BIG TIME.
We play these highend corporate/industrial partys and product releases:
IBM
Coca Cola
BMW
tons of insurance and pharmaceutical companys.

three months after 9/11 we had a sit down with the agent that books the shows and he told us that in those 3 months he had gotten 3 calls TOTAL to inquire about availability in the comming year. That, down from more like 3 a day .....
oct, nov, saw no less then ten cancellations of out of state/country gigs. at an average of 8-12k a gig (total) that added up to a really crappy year.

the slow down hasen't turned around yet, but I always remind myself that I'm here, my family is healthy....we are blessed. I didn't loose anyone personally in those attacks.
I live in a Marine town, it's obvious we're gearing up for the s*** to hit the fan....I pray it can be done another way.....

I'd agree that it's more of a hit to the economy for people to wait, the uncertainty of war looming...that's definately the corporate reaction we experienced.
Anyone need an assistant in New Zealand?

yuktyy

[chrisso]

Originally posted by cajonezzz
my primary gig was cut by 44% this year.....directly as a result of the 9/11 attacks causing the corporations we work for to put on the brakes, and cancel bookings BIG TIME.
We play these highend corporate/industrial partys and product releases:
IBM
Coca Cola
BMW
tons of insurance and pharmaceutical companys.

Nobody's mentioned Enron or the latest Time Warner Aol disaster yet!
Maybe, just maybe corporations had screwed themselves before 9/11.

'Anyone need an assistant in New Zealand?'
Remember Bali?

[cajonezzz]

?41/4??i]Originally posted by chrisso [/i]
Nobody's mentioned Enron or the latest Time Warner Aol disaster yet!
Maybe, just maybe corporations had screwed themselves before 9/11.

'Anyone need an assistant in New Zealand?'
Remember Bali? [/QUOTE
Actually 2 of the gigs were Enron....good point

[RKrizman]

Originally posted by jon
Business has been excellent in 2003 so far...but I wonder if there will be a steep drop-off. ......

It's like you know something is going to happen, but you don't know when and you don't know how bad it's going to hurt. The topic definitely overhangs the meal conversations with the artists and engineers during sessions here.

Actually, a war should be good for the economy, in the short run anyway. Wars tend also to be culturally invigorating, at least for the winners.

The real questions worth asking, however, lie outside the considerations of one's own career.

-R

[Jack the Bear]

Thank you recordman,

I stand corrected! What I meant to say was that during WWII musicals became even more popular, because they provided an escape.

One too many schnapps at 3AM

Cheers,
Tony Mantz.

Glorified tape copy boy.

[Drumsound]

Things are rough here. I just lost a client for Feb. I'm getting really worried that my new room won't fly. I think I can stick it out. People are really conservative right now. I think they know things are going to shit real soon.

[Jack the Bear]

C'mon Tony,

Fight it man!! Things aren't shit yet. Once you get through a trough, there's always a peak.

Keep pressing on mate!!!!

Cheers,

Tony Mantz.
Glorified tape copy boy.

[adam_w]

Well..of course it will. Maybe this topic is a bit insensitive ? It could change the way we all live, forever. Lets all hope for the best..

[ISPdeRuiter]

A lot of innocent potential clients will die;
I hope you worry about this. You might worry about the loss of and damage done to human lives. Or animals.

A lot of not so innocent potential clients will get away with this;you might make them a good offer.

Kind regards,

ISPdeRuiter

[jon]

Originally posted by adam_w
Maybe this topic is a bit insensitive ?

For managers of businesses and of the people whose livelihood depends on the health of that business...this topic is reality which needs to be addressed.

[jon]

Here is one viewpoint from Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting) Weekly...

*********************************************

Here is your complimentary Stratfor Weekly, written by our
Chairman and Founder, Dr. George Friedman.

Please feel free to email this analysis to a friend.

The Region After Iraq

Summary

Desert Storm was about restoring the status quo ante. The 2003
war with Iraq will be about redefining the status quo in the
region. Geopolitically, it will leave countries like Syria and
Saudi Arabia completely surrounded by U.S. military forces and
Iran partially surrounded. It is therefore no surprise that the
regional powers, regardless of their hostility to Saddam Hussein,
oppose the war: They do not want to live in a post-war world in
which their own power is diluted. Nor is it a surprise, after
last week's events in Europe indicating that war is coming, that
the regional powers -- and particularly Saudi Arabia -- are now
redefining their private and public positions to the war. If the
United States cannot be stopped from redefining the region, an
accommodation will have to be reached.

Analysis

Last week, the focus was on Europe -- where heavy U.S. pressure,
coupled with the internal dynamics, generated a deep division.
>From the U.S. point of view, regardless of what France and
Germany ultimately say about the war, these two countries no
longer can claim to speak for Europe. Ultimately, for the
Americans, that is sufficient.

This week, U.S. attention must shift to a much more difficult
target -- the Islamic world. More precisely, it must shift to the
countries bordering Iraq and others in the region as well. In
many ways, this is a far more important issue than Europe. The
Europeans, via multinational organizations, can provide
diplomatic sanction for the invasion of Iraq. The countries
around Iraq constitute an essential part of the theater of
operations, potentially influencing the course of the war and
even more certainly, the course of history after the war. What
they have to say and, more important, what they will do, is of
direct significance to the war.

As it stands at this moment, the U.S. position in the region, at
the most obvious level, is tenuous at best. Six nations border
Iraq: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran. Of
the six, only one -- Kuwait -- is unambiguously allied with the
United States. The rest continue to behave ambiguously. All have
flirted with the United States and provided varying degrees of
overt and covert cooperation, but they have not made peace with
the idea of invasion and U.S. occupation.

Of the remaining five, Turkey is by far the most cooperative. It
will permit U.S. forces to continue to fly combat missions
against Iraq from bases in Turkey as well as allow them to pass
through Turkey and maintain some bases there. However, there is a
split between the relatively new Islamist government of Turkey,
which continues to be uneasy about the war, and the secular
Turkish military, which is committed to extensive cooperation.
And apart from Kuwait, Turkey is the best case. Each of the other
countries is even more conflicted and negative toward an
invasion.

Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Iran are very different countries
and have different reasons for arriving at their positions. They
each have had very different experiences with Saddam Hussein's
Iraq.

Iran fought a brutal war with Iraq during the 1980s -- a war
initiated by the Iraqis and ruinous to Iran. Hussein is despised
by Iranians, who continue to support anti-Hussein exiles. Tehran
certainly is tempted by the idea of a defeated Iraq. It also is
tempted by the idea of a dismembered Iraq that never again could
threaten Iran, and where Iran could gain dominance over its
Shiite regions. Tehran certainly has flirted with Washington and
particularly with London on various levels of cooperation, and
clearly has provided some covert intelligence cooperation to the
United States and Britain. In the end, though -- however
attractive the collapse of Iraq might be -- internal politics and
strategic calculations have caused Iranian leaders to refuse to
sanction the war or to fully participate. Iran might be prepared
to pick up some of the spoils, but only after the war is fought.

Syria stands in a similar relation to Iraq. The Assad family
despises the Husseins, ideologically, politically and personally.
Syria sided openly with the United States in 1991. Hussein's
demise would cause no grief in Damascus. Yet, in spite of a
flirtation with Britain in particular -- including a visit with
both Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Charles for Syrian President
Assad -- Syria has not opted in for the war.

Nor have the Jordanians -- at least not publicly. There are
constant reports of U.S. (and Israeli) special operations troops
operating out of Jordan. U.S. Marines have trained during the
past month in Jordan, but the government remains officially
opposed to the war -- and what support it will give, it will give
only covertly.

Finally, there is Saudi Arabia, which has been one of the pillars
of U.S. power in the region since the 1950s and which has, in
turn, depended on Washington for survival against both Arab
radicals and Iraq itself. The Saudis have been playing the most
complex game of all, cooperating on some levels openly,
cooperating on other levels covertly, while opposing the war
publicly.

For all of the diversity in the region, there is a common
geopolitical theme. If the U.S. invasion is successful,
Washington intends to occupy Iraq militarily, and it officially
expects to remain there for at least 18 months -- or to be more
honest, indefinitely. The United States will build air bases and
deploy substantial ground forces -- and, rather than permit the
disintegration of Iraq, will create a puppet government
underwritten by U.S. power.

On the day the war ends, and if the United States is victorious,
then the entire geopolitics of the region will be redefined.
Every country bordering Iraq will find not the weakest formations
of the Iraqi army along their frontiers, but U.S. and British
troops. The United States will be able to reach into any country
in the region with covert forces based in Iraq, and Washington
could threaten overt interventions as well. It would need no
permission from regional hosts for the use of facilities, so long
as either Turkey or Kuwait will permit transshipment into Iraq.
In short, a U.S. victory will change the entire balance of power
in the region, from a situation in which the United States must
negotiate its way to war, to a situation where the United States
is free to act as it will.

Consider the condition of Syria. It might not have good relations
with Hussein's Iraq, but a U.S.-occupied Iraq would be Syria's
worst nightmare. It would be surrounded on all sides by real or
potential enemies -- Israel, Turkey, Jordan and the United States
- and, in the Mediterranean, by the U.S. Sixth Fleet. Syria --
which traditionally has played a subtle, complex balancing game
between various powers -- would find itself in a vise, no longer
able to guarantee its national security except through
accommodating the United States.

A similar situation is shaping up for Saudi Arabia. The United
States is operating extensively in Yemen; it also has air force
facilities in Qatar and naval facilities in Bahrain. U.S. B-1
bombers and some personnel are going to be based in Oman. The
United States has established itself along the littoral of the
Arabian peninsula. With U.S. forces deployed along the Saudi-
Iraqi border, and with U.S. domination of the Red Sea and Persian
Gulf, the Saudis will be in essence surrounded.

The same basic problem exists for Iran, although on a less
threatening scale. Iran is larger, more populated and more
difficult to intimidate. Nevertheless, with at least some U.S.
forces in Afghanistan -- and the option for introducing more
always open -- and U.S. forces in Iraq and the Persian Gulf, the
Iranians too find themselves surrounded, albeit far less
overwhelmingly than would be the case for Syria or Saudi Arabia.

The only probable winners would be Turkey, which would lay claim
to the oil fields around Mosul and Kirkuk; Jordan, whose security
would be enhanced by U.S. forces to the east; and Kuwait, which
is betting heavily on a quick U.S. victory and a prolonged
presence in the region.

If we consider the post-Iraq war world, it is no surprise that
the regional response ranges from publicly opposed and privately
not displeased to absolute opposition. Certainly, Syria, Saudi
Arabia and Iran have nothing to gain from a war that will be
shaped entirely by the United States. Each understands that the
pressure from the United States to cooperate in the war against
al Qaeda will be overwhelming, potentially irresistible and
politically destabilizing. This is not the world in which they
want to live.

(continued on next post...)