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I think Hurt Locker won because it was time. Also it was an actors movie. I heard somewhere actors make up the majority, by a long shot, of the voting Academy. Also a lot of the Academy voters are older. AND Cameron has not ingratiated himself to Hollywood actors, who had had it with his ego. He knew, more than anyone, what a long shot he was. Plus they give out those advance copies for the Academy voting members to view on DVD. CGI looks lame on TV screens. Older folk are thinking, "What's the big deal? This is a cartoon!"
And Cameron has threatened actors by more or less kicking them to the curb in importance. HE's the movie , not the actors, as he has indicated from his directing time and time again. I don't think an Oscar was in the cards for him, and he knew it.
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