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Originally Posted by redvelvetstudios  so now you can think for me - impressive...
the point being, again... this isn't about 100% of anything.
not 100% of piracy, and not 100% the elimination of it.
the point is AGAIN looking at "good enough" solutions - the kind we have that govern everything from murder, parking tickets, shoplifting, grand theft auto, etc.
no law, crime/punishment system is 100%. the point here is that up till now this cat/mouse game has had pretty much no cat... that's changing.
so 96 billion without piracy when the previous peak was 16 billion... probably not... but run the numbers just to see what a "good enough" solution represents and it's surprisingly modest just to meet those good ol' 16 billion domestic number...
throw in a little growth for the unprecedented expansion of distribution via more computers, ipods, phones w/ memory, etc (as has been noted repeatedly) and we start to see what a world with "good enough" manageability looks like...
wow... look at that... there can be legitimate new models built around return on investment if say piracy is managed to 70%... holly shit... does that sound like I've got my head in the sand that it's not going away? does that sound like I believe there's a 90 billion dollar payday... no.
as we drill down into more numbers the truth will out - there is a margin where legitimate models can exist - we're not really there now, but we're going to get there.
how much can be earned once there are legitimate new models that can not be stolen wholesale - well we'll see, but I believe the numbers are big enough that there will be substantial enough investment to anti-piracy to reduce the liability to manageable levels.
you can't stop people from stealing who want to steal - people go to great lengths to either defend or justify stealing in these very forums.
the larger part of the population can be deterred with broad stroke policies, and enforcement - that's how most laws work... hell, we can't stop murder how are we going to stop piracy...
so the solution is in the margin of acceptability... not in absolutes, as either extreme is probably, just that... |
1) You're sort of dodging the question. In your own estimation, if the previous peak was 16 billion, and counting all downloads as sales would point to 96 billion, where do you think the industry would be in annual revenue without piracy currently?
2) Your premise that we'll ever know "how much can be earned once there are legitimate new models that can not be stolen wholesale" may or may not become reality, but we've argued the feasibility of putting the genie back in the bottle ad nauseam so I'll just wait until May 2011 and we'll see where we are.