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Originally Posted by redvelvetstudios  we can disagree, however the amount of bias and misinformation needs to be addressed. |
I'm stating my opinion, which I consider to be relatively informed, and I'm quite confident in it. I don't think there is any misinformation or bias in my four points beyond the fact that it is my opinion, and we're both trying to predict the future. One of us could be right, we could both be wrong, etc.
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agreed - nothing will every be 100%, but an 80% solution will be "good enough" to make a major change. no law or regulation has ever stopped any illegal activity - it has only reduced it to a more manageable level. people still steal cars and all sorts of things... but it's not complete chaos and anarchy.
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You won't get to 80%. I don't think you'll get to 20%. I'll change my signature if 80% of the piracy goes away and stays away for 2 years.
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that's just your opinion. maybe, maybe not.
but we do know is that in each territory that these systems, laws regulations go into effect, we see sales build and rebound... so... I guess we'll see...
the signs are very encouraging. when people can no longer easily steal with out consequence, sales start to return... who knew?
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We've seen sales rebound in Sweden. Lots of things work in Sweden that might not work in the US. Let's see how things go. I think people will continue to commit copyright infringement without consequence.
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again, your opinion - and the irony is - you maybe be entirely right in the wrong way - I actually believe once this piracy business is dealt with effectively the recorded music industry will see BETTER numbers than the previous peak in 1999 (which was the actual peak for the industry, not 89)
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I used 1989 as a year to refer to the type of control in distribution and production that was in place, not the peak year for revenue. Computers have made everything cheaper, not just made it easy to copy files. I don't think the music industry will ever see 1999 numbers again outside of inflationary increases.
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95% of all music distributed digitally is illegal, if we get 40% of that back (and it's likely we'll get more than that) the numbers will simply be staggering because of global micro-economics at work and expanding new markets.
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1) You're assuming you can stop it, I don't think you can.
2) You're assuming that if you stopped 40% of it, that 40% would be purchased instead. That simply isn't the case.
There is a very, very big gap between what people will take for free and what people will even pay 50 cents for.
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what we haven't seen yet is the benefit of a robust record store with an infinitely deep catalog being in every single house with an internet connection (but without the ability to easily and cost effectively steal music without consequence)
Personally I'm excited about the upcoming year or two, I think it's going to be awesome.
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I guess it comes down to this: I don't think they'll ever be able to stop people from copying music. You seem to think that they will be able to, at least to a strong enough degree to make an impact. Bookmark this thread and let's revisit it in a year or two.
I've never been to that site. Is that the lowest common denominator of unsigned acts?
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I've been in the business 24 years now, and it's been a rough ride the last 8-10 of those years, but I am optimistic that copyright control will be restored and with it the appropriate revenues.
I guess we'll both see how the next 18 months or so play out - let's meet back here June of 2011...
somehow I think we'll probably both be wrong - as no one saw itunes coming or how it would be a game changer - I think we're bound for at least one more of those in the next year and half.
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I'll talk to you in June. I guess I see you as an optimist, you see me as a pessimist, and we probably each see ourselves as realists.