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The degree of realism is directly proportional to the programming skill, and inversely proportional to listener skill and complexity of the drum part. So, yes, I say that given excellently good programming, a simple drum part could be indiscernible to the real thing in the mix. Products (like DFHS) that include facilities to randomize multiple samples (to reduce machine-gunning) and that have mic bleed help to increase the realism. But, I'm not sure whether experienced ears could be fooled, especially with an exposed kit. It might be interesting to do some blind listening experiments. For myself, I'm not fooled by my own drumming using DFHS, but that's because I know it's not real.
What might be more important is how musical the results are. Maybe realism is not as important as making a drum-like part that is sonically and emotionally pleasing for the specific song. Even though I might prefer real drums, using samples does mean a lot more variety and the ability to choose drum sounds that complement the song.
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