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OK folks. Here's a little thought experiment. Let's say a foolproof method is found for easily preventing music piracy. So suddenly, if you want music, you have to pay for it, get free releases, or run a very real risk of criminal prosecution.
If this happens, does anybody think that the price people are willing to pay will really go back up to 20 bucks per CD? Will the perceived decline in the industry stop? In a certain way, the piracy issue is a red herring because so many other forces are pushing the value of music lower: a huge and ever-growing supply of product; streaming services that offer ultralow per song rates; the proliferation of good-sounding, relatively cheap recording equipment; artists' recently acquired ability to by-pass traditional distribution and reach customers directly on the internet, the popularity of remixing (collage art) and the movement towards a creative commons.
None of these things is going to go away if piracy is instantly halted, and they are all pushing the average value of a "song" lower and lower. I actually believe that technology will make piracy increasingly difficult. But people in the music industry will continue to feel increasing pain as all these trends converge and feed on each other, driving the price of music lower. Eventually it will stabilize one hopes. But we're in a big industry shakeout with piracy being only one factor.
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